TKTKTK
Senior Member
So what becomes the justification when you're already enjoying the benefits of the city, for less money, in more space?
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Toronto prices decline 15% in mid-October
- Thread starter poppajojo
- Start date
So what becomes the justification when you're already enjoying the benefits of the city, for less money, in more space?
condoboy
Banned
If someone doesn't have the down payment, doesn't have the income, and can't get pre-approved, and isn't looking long-term (at least 3 or 4 years), then certainly it is better to rent.
TKTKTK
Senior Member
Sorry dude, but that's an outmoded way to think. There's no sense in rehashing it again though - I think it's already been put to rest in this thread.
condoboy
Banned
You don't have to be sorry about your opinion...that's what this forum is all about!
TKTKTK
Senior Member
Oh, I'm not sorry for my opinion. I was sorry about yours (condolences).
condoboy
Banned
The Condo Observer
Active Member
Any data on the condo sector of the market? Back in August, the rest of the market declined somewhat, but condos were unaffected. I imagine that by now the condo market would also be trending down.
izomax
New Member
It's over. Deal.
sauga
New Member
From the globe....
Home price slide may be overstated, TD economists say
Article Comments (25) LORI MCLEOD
Globe and Mail Update
October 22, 2008 at 11:35 AM EDT
Canadian home prices cooled last month, but the depth of the correction may have been exaggerated by distorted data, says a research note released Wednesday by TD Securities Inc.
The average price of a resale home across the country's 25 major markets fell by an estimated 6.2 per cent year-over-year in September, according to a report last week from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The decline was larger than many market watchers had expected, and added to fears the Canadian housing market could go into a U.S.-style freefall.
However the price drop was led by a 43 per cent plunge in the number of homes sold last month in Vancouver, the country's most expensive market.
“The crux of the issue is that unless the underlying cities are properly weighted...the results can be biased by dramatic changes in the volume of the sales in certain cities,†said the report by TD economists Millan Mulraine and Eric Lascelles.
Currently, the average existing home price is calculated by using an average that gives each city a weighting based on its contribution to overall sales, Mr. Mulraine said. TD recalculated the data by fixing the weighting to last year's data instead, which is a more standard method of calculating year-over-year comparisons for economic data, he added.
Under the new weighting system, last month's average existing home price decline would be a more moderate 1.3 per cent from Sept. 2007, the TD report said.
“As a result, concerns that the Canadian housing sector may follow its U.S. counterpart into a major correction may be overblown,†it added.
However, there are already some early signs that October could be a weak month for the resale housing market, and not just as a result of falling sales in Vancouver.
In the first half of October, sales fell by 18 per cent and prices by 11 per cent year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area, the country's largest housing market.
In Calgary in the past 14 days, there have been 1,598 price reductions. Listings are still far outpacing sales, with 8,450 active listings compared with 809 sales so far this month.
Home price slide may be overstated, TD economists say
Article Comments (25) LORI MCLEOD
Globe and Mail Update
October 22, 2008 at 11:35 AM EDT
Canadian home prices cooled last month, but the depth of the correction may have been exaggerated by distorted data, says a research note released Wednesday by TD Securities Inc.
The average price of a resale home across the country's 25 major markets fell by an estimated 6.2 per cent year-over-year in September, according to a report last week from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The decline was larger than many market watchers had expected, and added to fears the Canadian housing market could go into a U.S.-style freefall.
However the price drop was led by a 43 per cent plunge in the number of homes sold last month in Vancouver, the country's most expensive market.
“The crux of the issue is that unless the underlying cities are properly weighted...the results can be biased by dramatic changes in the volume of the sales in certain cities,†said the report by TD economists Millan Mulraine and Eric Lascelles.
Currently, the average existing home price is calculated by using an average that gives each city a weighting based on its contribution to overall sales, Mr. Mulraine said. TD recalculated the data by fixing the weighting to last year's data instead, which is a more standard method of calculating year-over-year comparisons for economic data, he added.
Under the new weighting system, last month's average existing home price decline would be a more moderate 1.3 per cent from Sept. 2007, the TD report said.
“As a result, concerns that the Canadian housing sector may follow its U.S. counterpart into a major correction may be overblown,†it added.
However, there are already some early signs that October could be a weak month for the resale housing market, and not just as a result of falling sales in Vancouver.
In the first half of October, sales fell by 18 per cent and prices by 11 per cent year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area, the country's largest housing market.
In Calgary in the past 14 days, there have been 1,598 price reductions. Listings are still far outpacing sales, with 8,450 active listings compared with 809 sales so far this month.
MADEinHK
New Member
For example, if Vancouver was the only city that reported sales in one month, and the next month Montreal was the only city that reported, then it might seem that prices had fallen in half because Montreal prices are much less expensive than those in Vancouver. TD fixed the weight of each city to year-earlier sales levels as of September 2007.
"We wanted to get rid of the whole compositional issue. We really just controlled for the allocation. When we did that we ended up with a 1% drop instead of a 6% drop," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities.
"That's not catastrophically different, but to me that's a number that makes more sense. Yes, the housing market is correcting moderately but it does not have the making of a U.S.-style correction."
yyzer
Senior Member
just a heads up....the October real estate resale numbers, when they are released by TREB next week, are going to be terrible....the RE market has really taken a pause during all the stock market turmoil, and the last two weeks, especially, have been totally dead...
There may be some alarming headlines......
There may be some alarming headlines......
Therion
Senior Member
I was pretty much expecting that, as are most board members here. The real estate market tends to cycle in step with the broader economy, and since the economy is headed into the crapper for the next 2-3 years, the RE market will follow. Unemployment will rise, savings/investments are gone or much reduced, debt loads are high... not an ideal environment to buy real estate. Add to that that some forced selling will occur and you have the makings of a precipitous decline.
daveto
Active Member
Therion, I agree with your prognosis about the market but not about the opinions of the board members.
From this poll http://www.urbantoronto.ca/showthread.php?t=7729 it seems that 60% of board members expect that the total decline by the end of next year will be less than 15%. Since mid-Oct was already showing a 15% drop, it seems that 60% of board members are actually expecting at worst no further decrease in prices over the next year?
detroitbootybass
Active Member
I don't think a poll with only 25 people can accurately represent a board with nearly 3000 members.
lowesthangingfruit
Active Member
Just a few short months ago I was chastised by some members for asking about RE short plays to hedge RE holdings if one didn't want to sell.
Although the mood now seems more neutral as I don't hear alot from these perpetual bulls, I would hardly call the sentiment bearish overall.
I personally wouldn't be looking to buy until the sentiment swings to an extreme where the perpetual bulls on this site capitulate and ask about exit strategies.
What's that old saying..."When there is blood on the streets, that's when you buy."