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Toronto Centre Federal By-election (cancelled)

2

299 bloor call control.

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We're getting awfully close to the December 30th deadline for Harper to call a byelection in Toronto Centre to replace John Graham. The Tories have yet to announce a replacement candidate since they ousted Mark Warner back in October.

But so far, the candidates are:

Liberal - Bob Rae
NDP - El-Farouk Khaki
Green - Chris Tindal
CPC - TBA
 
299 bloor call control. said:
We're getting awfully close to the December 30th deadline for Harper to call a byelection in Toronto Centre to replace John Graham. The Tories have yet to announce a replacement candidate since they ousted Mark Warner back in October.

But so far, the candidates are:

Liberal - Bob Rae
NDP - El-Farouk Khaki
Green - Chris Tindal
CPC - TBA
Click to expand...


I suggest Harper wait for a spring vote. They are tabling a new budget, which will be defeated by the Opposition. The election will centre around the budget (more tax cuts) and Harper will win a slim majority government. Interesting polls show, support for the CPC dropping in the GTA, but more than make up in rural Ontario and Quebec. Imagine again Jim Flaherty will be the MP representing GTA interests in Cabinet.
If there is one thing I am looking forward to the most. The leaders debate when Harper cuts down Dion and humiliates the poor man in front of the whole country. My only fear Dion might get some sympathy votes. bahahahahaha
 
They can't wait for spring. The deadline to call the byelection is December 30th. The election, at the latest, will be the end of January after the campaign period.
 
Yeah, unfortunately for Harper, he is constrainted by the meagre democratic principles of Canadian law, whereby he must eventually hold by-elections, even if they are in ridings that the CPC won't win.

I was a bit steamed that Quebec had their byelections while the other three vacant seats were ignored.
 
Refusing to call the by-elections in seats that the Conservatives weren't likely to win is one of the most galling of many galling things that Harper has done. I think it's pretty much unprecendented to not call them all at the same time and then wait until the absolute last day possible. Not to mention the terrible waste of funds ramping up Elections Canada again and again to avoid having representatives in Liberal seats for as long as he can.

You gotta remember that Harper isn't actually a particularly good debater, and the reason that he did okay last time was because expectations were so low and he got sympathy votes. Incredible Hulk Harper might have a fawning media, but he certainly won't be underestimated this time.
 
299 bloor call control. said:
They can't wait for spring. The deadline to call the byelection is December 30th. The election, at the latest, will be the end of January after the campaign period.
Click to expand...

The deadline for *calling* the byelection. However, the date when said byelection is actually scheduled to take place can be months later--thus allowing it to be subsumed within a general election, if necessary.

Such was the case in Ottawa Centre in 2004; the deadline came up, and the byelection was called for something like six months later--in the meantime, the general election took place and the byelection was rendered moot...
 
adma said:
The deadline for *calling* the byelection. However, the date when said byelection is actually scheduled to take place can be months later--thus allowing it to be subsumed within a general election, if necessary.

Such was the case in Ottawa Centre in 2004; the deadline came up, and the byelection was called for something like six months later--in the meantime, the general election took place and the byelection was rendered moot...
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification, I knew there was a way previous PMs used to delay byelections. Lets just wait a few months and save the taxpayers the unnecessary expense.
 
unimaginative2 said:
You gotta remember that Harper isn't actually a particularly good debater, and the reason that he did okay last time was because expectations were so low and he got sympathy votes. Incredible Hulk Harper might have a fawning media, but he certainly won't be underestimated this time.
Click to expand...

I never said he was a good debater, but will surely rip Dion apart. Dion was pathetic during the Lib leadership debates and Iggy knew how to touch a nerve. It should be fun to watch.
 
Harper does not have the most personable personality, and people do not necessarily warm to him as someone they could see themselves with as a friend or acquaintance.... and therefore do not necessarily trust. This is what will hold him back from winning a majority (IMHO). The reason why he is prime minister is because the other candidates have been rather pathetic (it is a race to see which one is least trustworthy or likable) bunch themselves. The Liberals with the right leader are the natural governing party - which shows how little Dion has resonated with the public.

As far as Toronto-Centre, no matter how strong the Conservative candidate is - Bob Rae will be voted into office.
 
It will be a coronation for Rae. He'll barely have to campaign. NDP strength is limited to the SE of the riding and the Conservatives are no longer a factor.

The most interesting byelection (if it happens) will be Westmount-Ville Marie, if Julius Grey runs for the NDP plus the one in northern Saskatchewan which could go any way. The rest are safe Liberal seats.
 
Hence the "if it happens." We may have a general election first (after all as adma points out central Ottawa was left without representation for 2 years).

Then again Dion is pretty spineless and a very weak Liberal leader who will continue to prop up the Conservatives for as long as possible.
 
Apparently Dion wanted to bring down the government over the Speech From the Throne, but his party was mostly against it. I have a feeling that he personally would like to go to an election soon. It is the party that is holding back. CPC polling numbers are still very low (most rencent I saw was 33% vs Liberal 28%). Dion may still have a trick or 2 in his hat. Jumping at the right time just may be beneficial for him, but I cannot see him ever winning a majority. At best he may be able to pull off a very weak minority.

It is interesting how Danny Williams is warming up to Layton in his ABC (anything but Conservative) campaigne, when helping the NDP tends to mean helping the CPC hold onto government.
 
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