Toronto 350 Bloor East | 209.07m | 63s | Osmington Gerofsky | Hariri Pontarini

[The Preservationist]

I would agree with all points but would lean on GTA population growth as being the predominant factor. There were times during the 70s, 80s and 90s where there was significant office space overcapacity, and nobody could even predict when or if there would be shovels in the ground again. I think the GTA will need to grow by 750K-1M before we see any new large office towers in the core, however might be in the form of multi use buildings. 4 floors retail & services, 20 floors office and 50+ floors of condos anyone?

 

[Northern Light]

^^So we should freeze large amounts of real estate in the hopes of something happening in the future while ignoring current conditions and incremental, organic change?

Whose freezing anything?

That statement doesn't make sense.

1) The City of Toronto has over 800,000 approved housing units that are not under construction. There is no shortage of approved sites for residential.

2) The City continues to approve new units at record speed.

3) The City is currently allowing office to residential conversion on a case by case basis, and has approved this in multiple projects throughout the City.

4) Yes, we do need to retain lands for employment of all kinds, because, shocker here, people need jobs, they can't pay for their housing or their food without them.

5) Fewer than 20% of workers in Canada currently work the majority of their remotely, that number will fall by early '25, likely to below 15%

6) The projections for future needs, while not precise or exact, are evidence-based, and quite reasonable, you can't just get employment land back after you've let it be developed as something else.

 

[Northern Light]

I would agree with all points but would lean on GTA population growth as being the predominant factor. There were times during the 70s, 80s and 90s where there was significant office space overcapacity, and nobody could even predict when or if there would be shovels in the ground again. I think the GTA will need to grow by 750K-1M before we see any new large office towers in the core, however might be in the form of multi use buildings. 4 floors retail & services, 20 floors office and 50+ floors of condos anyone?

Broadly, I agree.

I would point out, that Toronto grew by well over 100,000 last year (the City proper).

If that is sustained, that would suggest that your target would be hit in ~7 years, or less. If the percentage growth is sustained, then ~6 years or less.

(for the record, I rather hope population growth in the GTA slows considerably, at least for a few years, so we can catch up in housing/transit/healthcare etc.), but I digress.

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Final note, I think that timeline could be accelerated for a couple of reasons, one is the pace at which existing office space is removed from the market. We saw just this week a proposal to remove 1 Yonge's office inventory, should that happen, and several more of comparable size, the market will tighten faster.

The other thing I would watch for is the potential for a significant new corporate presence in the GTA, pre-pandemic, there were a few biggies kicking the tires. Covid put the kibosh on that..........for a bit...........