Toronto 1540 Bloor West | 91.9m | 27s | Trinity Group | Arcadis

A factor that nobody appears to have mentioned is the building of public housing, or lack thereof. In the "old days", the construction of public housing kept the construction industry busy during economic slow downs when private development also slowed down.

There's no question that the failure to increase the amount of public housing in line w/population growth for the last 30 years has made the problem of housing affordability more acute.

However, while I very much support building more of it; given the crew shortages around, it's unlikely that it would impact on affordable ownership prices much or middle-high market rents.

What it would do is reduce homelessness (a very worthwhile cause) and might impact some low-end apartment rents at the margins.

But we're talking needing tens of thousands of new units just to keep pace right now, and double that if you want to start having a tangible impact.
 
If I may throw another wrench into this complex problem, another consequence of higher interest rates beyond mortgage affordability is the impact it has on debt serviceability for our provincial and federal governments. In the run up to COVID, both levels of government were posting yearly deficits, which was worsened when COVID did strike. In 2023, both levels of government just don't have the fiscal tools to engage in further deficit spending to stimulate the economy and build social housing.
 
There's no question that the failure to increase the amount of public housing in line w/population growth for the last 30 years has made the problem of housing affordability more acute.

However, while I very much support building more of it; given the crew shortages around, its unlikely that it would impact on affordable ownership prices much or middle-high market rents.

What it would do is reduce homelessness (a very worthwhile cause) and might impact some low-end apartment rents at the margins.

But we're talking needing tens of thousands of new units just to keep pace right now, and double that if you want to start having a tangible impact.

It's interesting that in the UK and Ireland, there were options for tenants of public housing to acquire the property they occupied. In many cases, this led to those properties becoming very desirable and valuable, because of quality of construction and location. However, in both countries, this program was followed by a reduction in construction, or acquisition, of new public housing. This has led to housing, and homelessness, crises in both those countries.

Ireland has embarked on a program allowing municipalities to identify unused properties and to compel the owners to either use them or lose them. In some areas where this approach has been actively pursued, it has been very successful.

It would be nice to see unified approach at federal, provincial and municipal levels to restart the construction of affordable, public housing but, given the current level of partisanship, there appears to be little chance of that happening. And, because we're trying to undo years of inaction, it will take years for that to have an effect.
 
Yes, the financialization of housing has caused real and serious problems and yes, in an ideal world we wouldn't have speculators competing with end users for limited housing units, but the housing crisis isn't just a crisis for purchasers, it's also a crisis for renters. It's worth remembering that in the vast majority of cases, an investor buying a condo unit doesn't make that unit unavailable for housing, it just shifts it to the rental market. That's not a particularly healthy result, in that mom-and-pop landlords are often terrible landlords, their renters often have to contend with personal-use evictions, the rich get richer while the poor get precarious housing, etc., — but it's still somewhere for someone to live.

I don't think condos are going to solve the housing crisis on their own, but I also don't think it's fair to say that "yet another condo" does nothing for the housing crisis. There will be more homes for more people, regardless of whether they own or rent, and that is a good thing that we need more of. I'd prefer a model other than condos sold to investors, but that's not a model that will change overnight, so in the meantime let's at least build some imperfect housing and push for better models for the future.
A big issue is a lot of these investor owned units become ghost hotels, short term rentals, etc. Better ROI than long term tenants, so often they don't end up as much needed rental housing.
 
If I may throw another wrench into this complex problem, another consequence of higher interest rates beyond mortgage affordability is the impact it has on debt serviceability for our provincial and federal governments. In the run up to COVID, both levels of government were posting yearly deficits, which was worsened when COVID did strike. In 2023, both levels of government just don't have the fiscal tools to engage in further deficit spending to stimulate the economy and build social housing.

The government has tools. Its a matter of whether they choose to employ them.

1) Raising minimum wage actually injects a lot of money back into the economy, costs the government itself very little and yields net new tax revenue in income tax, sales tax and corporate income tax far in excess of any expenditure.

Whereas we compete w/the U.S. and California's minimum wage will be $16 USD state wide on Jan 1, 2024 which is $21.75CAD per hour, there is ample room for a large increase.

2) The province can raise HST by 2 points to 15%, this is the exact same rate as Quebec, and all 4 Atlantic provinces. In so doing, it would generate no less than 7B per year, but probably closer to 9.

As HST does not apply to most groceries or residential rent, any increase would have a minimal impact on low income earners.

0.5 points of HST transferred to Ontario Works recipients would be a monthly increase in the range of $900 per month extra, or more than doubling current assistance rates.

allow 0.1 for less onerous work penalties and 0.4 for ODSP and you can add $400 per month for a recipient of that program.

That would bring ODSP to $1,708 a month.
That would bring OW to $1,633 a month

Still meagre, but a huge lift to that population.

Notably, Ontario would instantly recover almost 30% of that, in the form of rent increases for rent-geared-to-income housing.
 
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If I may throw another wrench into this complex problem, another consequence of higher interest rates beyond mortgage affordability is the impact it has on debt serviceability for our provincial and federal governments. In the run up to COVID, both levels of government were posting yearly deficits, which was worsened when COVID did strike. In 2023, both levels of government just don't have the fiscal tools to engage in further deficit spending to stimulate the economy and build social housing.
The economy was already overstimulated for years before covid by irresponsible/greedy monetary and fiscal policy which got even worse during the pandemic.
 
The economy was already overstimulated for years before covid by irresponsible/greedy monetary and fiscal policy which got even worse during the pandemic.
That's exactly what I'm getting at. Both levels of government recklessly used up all their ammunition before COVID so that when COVID came around the only option was to engage in extreme quantitative easing, which we are now paying for in inflation and higher interest rates.

The government has tools. Its a matter of whether they choose to employ them.

1) Raising minimum wage actually injects a lot of money back into the economy, costs the government itself very little and yields net new tax revenue in income tax, sales tax and corporate income tax far in excess of any expenditure.

Whereas we compete w/the U.S. and California's minimum wage will be $16 USD state wide on Jan 1, 2024 which is $21.75CAD per hour, there is ample room for a large increase.

2) The province can raise HST by 2 points to 15%, this is the exact same rate as Quebec, and all 4 Atlantic provinces. In so doing, it would generate no less than 7B per year, but probably closer to 9.

As HST does not apply to most groceries or residential rent, any increase would have a minimal impact on low income earners.

0.5 points of HST transferred to Ontario Works recipients would be a monthly increase in the range of $900 per month extra, or more than doubling current assistance rates.

allow 0.1 for less onerous work penalties and 0.4 for ODSP and you can add $400 per month for a recipient of that program.

That would bring ODSP to $1,708 a month.
That would bring OW to $1,633 a month

Still meagre, but a huge lift to that population.

Notably, Ontario would instantly recover almost 30% of that, in the form of rent increases for rent-geared-to-income housing.
Raising the minimum wage is not a lever you can so easily pull to increase tax revenue. There's a lot of unintended consequences that follow. For one, it will add fire to inflation because those costs will be passed down to consumers. This will lead the BoC to further increase interest rates, which will increase the cost of borrowing for government and erase much if not all the tax revenue gains. On top of that, it will make the cost of doing business more expensive in an already troubled business environment.

California's GDP output is almost twice as great as Canada's with nearly the same population. They can afford to have a higher minimum wage. This is an apples to oranges comparison.

Again, raising taxes has many unintended and un-costed consequences. You only need to look at the economic productivity of high-tax provinces like Quebec versus low-tax provinces like Alberta (see chart below). Indiscriminately Increasing taxes for everyone (like a blanket HST increase) will almost certainly hamper economic activity, which will reduce tax revenue (ironically), and make building more expensive.

I'm not sure how pumping money into social assistance programs through new taxes will get more built. Like my point above, it doesn't add to economic output and will probably add to inflation. If increasing taxes and air dropping it to people worked as a tool to increase economic productivity and get more built, every country would do it.

Currently, Canada is on the verge of stagflation and we desperately need to increase economic activity if we want to meet the challenges ahead. Our GDP per capita is falling way behind America, our paychecks are buying less, and we are not drawing foreign investment like we used to. Increasing taxes will hurt Canada more than help us at this point.
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Raising the minimum wage is not a lever you can so easily pull to increase tax revenue. There's a lot of unintended consequences that follow. For one, it will add fire to inflation because those costs will be passed down to consumers.

Lets stop right there. The typical minimum wage retailer has labour as between 11-15% of cost of goods sold.

That means, that if you raise wages at said employer by say 20%, the impact on consumer prices is in the 2-3% area, well within normative inflation.

Even if you factor a markup; you'll also adjust for productivity, and trust me, I know these figures, your pass through cost on average will not exceed 3%

On top of which, the majority of household expenses are not minimum wage sensitive (housing, utilities etc)


California's GDP output is almost twice as great as Canada's with nearly the same population. They can afford to have a higher minimum wage. This is an apples to oranges comparison.

I disagree, I would posit that the higher minimum wage is a driver of the economy there. Its not only more consumer spending, its also more investment in productivity to avoid labour cost.

Again, raising taxes has many unintended and un-costed consequences. You only need to look at the economic productivity of high-tax provinces like Quebec versus low-tax provinces like Alberta (see chart below). Indiscriminately Increasing taxes for everyone (like a blanket HST increase) will almost certainly hamper economic activity, which will reduce tax revenue (ironically), and make building more expensive.

This is not a comparison I agree with, Alberta's productivity is driven by global resource prices and crashes when those do as well, its highly volatile.

Taxes are far higher than here in many European jurisdictions ; and minimum wage is higher in Australia which is also more productive. PS, the minimum wage was higher in Australia before its economy was more productive

See the year 2001, when Australia still boasted a minimum wage much higher than prevailing here, but Canada was 3k per capita more productive in U.S. Dollars.

I'm not sure how pumping money into social assistance programs through new taxes will get more built. Like my point above, it doesn't add to economic output

That's just a bizarre statement. Every single dollar you give to someone whose desperate will be spent.

That's a higher throughput into the economy than any transfer to anyone higher in income in cash or benefits or any transfer to business.

and will probably add to inflation.

Approximately 3.5% of Ontarians are on OW or ODSP. A 20% increase in their benefit would represent a 0.7% inflationary impact at the most. That would also be highly improbable, because, for instance, with that higher benefit recipients are more likely to shop at a grocery store, instead of a food bank; but that is offset by fewer people buying groceries for the foodbank.


If increasing taxes and air dropping it to people worked as a tool to increase economic productivity and get more built, every country would do it.

That's a gross over simplification.

Clearly any thoughtful position would be a great deal more nuanced.

Currently, Canada is on the verge of stagflation and we desperately need to increase economic activity if we want to meet the challenges ahead. Our GDP per capita is falling way behind America, our paychecks are buying less, and we are not drawing foreign investment like we used to. Increasing taxes will hurt Canada more than help us at this point.

If we were talking about raising the general corporate tax rate, or personal income tax, you might have a point. But as Canada's sales taxes are low by global norms, I'm not buying.

Moreover, you can't reasonably argue that we need higher pay cheques, but then argue against the minimum wage being raised, those two things are contradictory.


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All of that said, this tangent has now wandered very far afield from this development, perhaps we should park this discussion and/or move it to better thread.
 
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How is it possible that this site has been sitting empty for 15 years? We're about to head into its second recession as a derelict eyesore and it's back up for sale?? We had the cheapest credit imaginable and a housing crisis but nobody could get shovels in the ground? It's on top of a subway station with multiple buses and streetcars. Steps away from an express link to the airport. Walking distance to Roncy and The Junction!! Not enough upside??? If they had at least knocked it down they could've widened the sidewalk a bit so you wouldn't get forced onto the road as you walk towards the station. Maybe they could've put up a hotdog cart or something!

What the hell went wrong here??
 
How is it possible that this site has been sitting empty for 15 years? We're about to head into its second recession as a derelict eyesore and it's back up for sale?? We had the cheapest credit imaginable and a housing crisis but nobody could get shovels in the ground? It's on top of a subway station with multiple buses and streetcars. Steps away from an express link to the airport. Walking distance to Roncy and The Junction!! Not enough upside??? If they had at least knocked it down they could've widened the sidewalk a bit so you wouldn't get forced onto the road as you walk towards the station. Maybe they could've put up a hotdog cart or something!

What the hell went wrong here??
Its redevelopment was stymied by City refusal to upzone it enough to cover the cost of developing it. Now that we're in a weird time for the economies of building again, many sites that aren't obvious moneymakers for their owners are on the block again. Poor timing here!

BTW, thank you for bringing this thread back onto its topic. It was a good talk about the factors inhibiting development right now, but it had gotten too far off the Bloor-Dundas-centricness that this thread should stick to!

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How is it possible that this site has been sitting empty for 15 years? We're about to head into its second recession as a derelict eyesore and it's back up for sale?? We had the cheapest credit imaginable and a housing crisis but nobody could get shovels in the ground? It's on top of a subway station with multiple buses and streetcars. Steps away from an express link to the airport. Walking distance to Roncy and The Junction!! Not enough upside??? If they had at least knocked it down they could've widened the sidewalk a bit so you wouldn't get forced onto the road as you walk towards the station. Maybe they could've put up a hotdog cart or something!

What the hell went wrong here??
You don't remember the city rejecting the initial "Giraffe" proposal for being "too tall"?
 
2) The province can raise HST by 2 points to 15%...
Off-topically: The HST is a flat tax though, usually hitting folks harder my end of the economy than likely yours..and with all due respect...

...but I am certainly not opposed to raising taxes by 2 points for those who can most afford it though. And on high end financial transactions where effects of such would be nominal outside of being greedy, IMO.
 
Off-topically: The HST is a flat tax though, usually hitting folks harder my end of the economy than likely yours..and with all due respect...

...but I am certainly not opposed to raising taxes by 2 points for those who can most afford it though. And on high end financial transactions where effects of such would be nominal outside of being greedy, IMO.

LOL, I've done ok in life, but I'm living in East York, not Rosedale.

In respect of sales tax, we already have a mechanism to correct for undue hardship on low-income earners.

The HST rebate gives back as much or more than any low income earner is likely to spend on taxable items.

The PST rebate is now hidden inside the Trillium Rebate, which is distinctly less generous; so there is room for improvement there, I certainly wouldn't object to that offset to make sure anyone making less than 50k a year did not pay a nickel more.
 
The HST rebate gives back as much or more than any low income earner is likely to spend on taxable items.
I'm not so sure about that. The government may want us to think that. Maybe even Conrad Black...but the end of the day, the amount I pay that gets hit with taxes pretty robust and extensive. Likely to the point that our rebates are unlikely to cover for everyone and everything.

...BTW, I wasn't implying you where rolling naked in money in some Rosedale mansion, but I suspect like with many posters here...the income bracket is significantly higher than what I earn. Yes, I am speculating here...and as that may not be any of my business, I do know though that it adds up for me anytime I have to pay for something most of the time in the anecdote. And for what that's worth.
 

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