The World in 25 years?

[Whoaccio]

This is kind of neat, the US National Intelligence Council, the long terms analysis branch of the US Intelligence Community, just released their 17 year projection for what the world will look like in 2025.
From the webpage:

Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:

* The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
* The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
* Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
* The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.

The document itself is quite a whooper, bout 120 pages. Any thoughts? I can't help but feel the threat posed by Russia is grossly exagerated. The country's population has been dropping precipitously, its military kills more of its own soldiers than enemies and its economy is rickety.

 

[urbanfan89]

We go back to where the world was in 1900: a group of large powers act like they were playing RISK and competing for power and influence.

 

[Kitsune]

... until someones head of state gets assanated and we get into the much fabled WW3, although I believe it'll be resources that'll drive the fuel.

25 years from now, I wont even be 50. The EU will have greatly extended, infact, by 2025 there power will prolly be greatest on the planet. The Euro will have replaced the American dollar as the de-facto global currency. China by this time will likely be teetering or in the grips of a civil war. The US Economy will be in shambles, having collapsed under trillions of debt. It'll force a massive shift in Canada's economy - one from catering for the US to now catering for the EU and China. We'll still be using gas based veichles, all be it emmissions will be greatly lowered. And oh, Canada will see its eleventh province in 25 years - the ecomonic conidtions in Ontario will have led to a lot politcal bickering until Northern Ontario politicians fight for there own province, and eventually suceed. The border will be drawn through cottage country or north of cottage country - it'll be decided in the courts. And the grumblings of new country on the West coast will begin to get louder. I actually think in 25 to 50 years we'll see NA decentralize and because more european like in terms of nation sizes.

 

[kEiThZ]

Having had the opportunity to meet two current NIOs, I have to say they have some smart cookies on the NIC who do produce excellent analysis. The more hefty versions are far more interesting of course.

The problem with forecasting this far down the road, however, is the issue of sensitivity of the variables. Most of the variables involved in this type of analysis are extremely sensitive and as a result easily change the outcome. For example, a year ago strategic analysts were predicting crises everywhere because rising oil prices were simply emboldening our enemies. Today, Ahmadinejad might well loose his job because Iran facing an unprecedented economic crisis thanks to his management (30% inflation, runaway spending on social programs, budget based on USD80/b). A declining oil price has simply knocked the strategic picture flat. In 17 years, who knows.....but it's always fun for strat analysts to guess....that's what we get paid for after all.

 

[Hydrogen]

Concerning the predictions that were advertised when I was a kid, I'm still waiting for oil to run out in the 1970's, water to run out in the 1980's and an overpopulation situation so bad that food would run out and civilization would collapse by 2000. However, none of that would have actually mattered if the predicted nuclear war between the United States and the USSR had actually happened.


USSR. Remember them? Did anyone predict its demise accurately in 1970?


No.

 

[Moonmoth]

Can't you see that the American empire is imploding before our very eyes???

 

[kEiThZ]

Can't you see that the American empire is imploding before our very eyes???

Yeah. That's been said many times before.....and somehow they always bounce back....see Hydrogen's comment.

As far I can see, the largest vulnerability of the United States and the Western world is its dependance on fossil fuel and believe me, they know it. The NIC has written numerous papers on it. Bush may not have had the courage to tackle the problem, but Obama seems to have the appetite to do so. It may sound like an insurmountable challenge but was so placing WWI and WWII, placing a man on the moon (while running the space programs with slide rulers) and defeating the USSR during the cold war. I'd be careful betting against the US.

 

[Admiral Beez]

... until someones head of state gets assanated

That sounds painful.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Can't you see that the American empire is imploding before our very eyes???

Not going to happen. That's because the USA is not an empire, but is a republic. In an empire you have colonies of non-voting, second-class citizens. Even non-State territories like Guam get to vote for US President. In a true empire, those in the colonies for the most part do not get to vote in the running of the empire.

I think the best judge of a country's success, as it has been said by others, is to compare the number of people trying to get into the country vs. the number trying to get out.

 

[Brian69]

Russia has had a bit of a second wind due to oil reserves but does look precarious when compared to most Western countries. I think China is more likely to implode than the United States. Things are moving too fast there and the people in the countryside are already showing signs of discontent. But if they can hold it together they will certainly eclipse the United States with the transfer of wealth and growth of a wealthy elite. I don't see America falling apart but it could be doing a slow fade if all of the economic problems and deficit issues over the past few decades come home to roost.

Apart from a host of other environmental worries the issue of water could be a greater problem, not just for the world but for Canada in particular. If the shortage does end up become acute we might not be in a position to simply give or trade it away; it might be taken.

 

[Admiral Beez]

the issue of water could be a greater problem, not just for the world but for Canada in particular. If the shortage does end up become acute we might not be in a position to simply give or trade it away; it might be taken.

With the exception of its war with the British Empire in 1812-14, the US has never attacked another English speaking, democratic western nation for any reason. I think we're safe.

What the US will do with water, as it will do with oil, is to eliminate the competitive advantage of other nations by pre-empting their position. For example, the US doesn't like being slaves to Arab/3rd World Despotic oil, and thus will work hard to eliminate their demand for their product. Electric powered cars, fueled by an extended network of nuclear reactors will likely do the job nicely. As for water, you'll see the US use those same nuclear reactors to fuel massive desalination plants. The world is covered in water, the challenge is making it drinkable at affordable costs. The US will make this work, and the result will reduce Canada's bragging rights on water.

Many folks, I believe, make the mistake of believing that the world will change, but that the US will not change to meet it, and thus be left behind.

 

[lordmandeep]

Imo America is where the Roman Empire was with Emperor Commodus after the end of the era of the five good Emperor's. It came back but never to the overwhelming dominate state it had especially in the 80's and 90's in the world.


The are quite different empires (America is a empire, the modern sense), but that is the position of America, strong and united, yet slowly crumbling.

Obama can reverse but can he really stop Russian resurgence, and the EU growing and India and China getting richer and more powerful by the day???


I am not saying America will collapse, as the Roman empire re surged with Constantine and others, but will it enjoy the complete economic, social, cultural, military domination again??

It has already lost the worldwide love and admiration already that it had during the 90's.

.. until someones head of state gets assassinated and we get into the much fabled WW3, although I believe it'll be resources that'll drive the fuel.

Damn Franz Ferdinand! Its silly how a man getting shot in Austria leads to a series of events so destructive and historic.

 

[kEiThZ]

What is interesting is how the current low oil prices are playing out. Chavez and Ahmadinejad were laughing when oil was over 100 bucks a barrel. They were happy to see the US helpless to do anything about the high oil prices, while they were flush with cash. Too bad they didn't realize how dependent the global oil markets were on the US economy and now they are in a world of hurt. It is estimated that both those countries need oil prices in the high 70s - low 80s per barrel just to balance their books. Meanwhile, OPEC is in disarray because the Gulf Arab countries who have been fiscally responsible, can balance their books on 30 bucks a barrel. And as US allies they do not want to see the US economy decline, reducing demand for their product and weakening their major benefactor. Iran is in an even worse situation. It faces a demographic time bomb and as the oil boom turns to bust, a severe recession is starting to set in as it deals with its own failing real estate sector that makes the Miami condo scene look like a passing comment.

Those who look at this as the 'fall of rome' should look around to see what's happening to America's adversaries. China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc are facing bleak futures. And their recent efforts to raise oil prices have convinced US policymakers that getting off foreign oil is long term priority 1. This is going to motivate the US to reduce oil consumption much quicker than they will have anticipated. In the long run, we'll see who comes out on top. My money is certainly not on Tehran or Caracas.

 

[lordmandeep]

I am not saying America will fall in 25 years and whoever thinks that is an idiot.

The Roman empire took forever to really start falling apart. I am saying America is past its point of growing its dominance over the world.

However you are right, if America falls these countries will be hurt the hardest.

The thing America is slowly losing its dominant fields, and one of them was worldwide admiration and respect. Its economic dominance will still be there in 25 years but all economists by 2050 at the latest, China will overtake America for having the world's largest economy and that will be a major shift.
However, Militarily it is dominant and it will be for a very very long time.That was the main reason the Roman's stay around for such a long time, with their legions. That will imo help America stay dominate for our lifetimes for sure.

When we talk about other countries, I mean more like the real emerging power of China. How would low gas prices negatively effect China is beyond me. China is dependent on America, however their internal/domestic economy is so strong they will still grow over 5% no matter what happens.

Your argument is 100% valid, but do not be so dismissive of China. If they were solely dependent on America, they would be collapsing right now.

 

[kEiThZ]

Your argument is 100% valid, but do not be so dismissive of China. If they were solely dependent on America, they would be collapsing right now.

As someone who studies China for a living, I assure you that I take them quite seriously. However, I often feel that much of their power is over-exaggerated in the media. Even today China is extremely dependent on the US. As a result of their focus on economic growth through exports not consumption, they have become dependent on the US economy for growth. It is literally Walmart that is delivering prosperity to millions of Chinese. However, that is hardly a sustainable model as any economist will tell you. And the Chinese people are only willing to tolerate the Communists so long as the deliver the goods. And that bargain will get tenuous as time goes by. For example, what happens when there is a severe recession affecting China's export markets? Or how can the world markets absorb such a massive growth in exports while still maintaining strong industries at home and not creating a protectionist backlash? How do you build an economy rapidly in a sustainable fashion? These are questions that we will see play out in the coming years. I would not bank on that 2050 date. Those forecasts cannot build in any of the obstacles I have discussed here. 2050 is an extremely optimistic estimate at best.