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News Roundup for August 13, 2024
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The Hypocrisy of the International Community, Re: Russia

Russia will not attack Poland. Absolutely no way. It would force a U.S. response that Russia could not withstand.

Attacking Georgia, on the other hand, will eventually be accepted. Serbia lost Kosovo, so Russia will get South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

And I think it's very likely Serbia will want the Serb half of Bosnia too. And really, how can they say no? Bosnia is effectively partitioned as it is. If Serbia takes the Serbian half, I could then see Croatia wanting it's half of the Croat-Muslim half.
 
kEiThZ said:
Yeah, and do you think the NATO Article 5 response come the other way would be worthwhile. That's just bluster. The Russians really don't want that radar....which by the way is US payback for refusing to renegotiate the ABM treaty. They will say anything to dissaude the Poles and Czech from helping out with that system especially now that development of US ABM systems is ahead of schedule and improving. The Russians don't want a system in place that would reduce the credibility of their deterrent. Hence, the threats towards Poland. Thankfully for Poland, they are protected by NATO, which doesn't have a "no first use" clause in its doctrine. The Russians are smart enough to know when they are playing with fire.
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i know. it's alot of cock waving but you can't rule it out. maybe they have some confidence that the west is tied up in other things or maybe they could be losing their minds. it is possible for someone to lose all rationality, regardless of the consequences. it's not impossible. people do stupid things.
 
Admiral Beez said:
China is a dictatorship in need of living space and resources, with a strong military. Russia is a militarily weak, sparsely populated country with massive resources.

The last time Russia had a militarily strong, resource and space hungry dictatorship on its doorstep they were almost wiped out, losing an estimated 20 million people in the process. We can certainly argue that China today is not Germany of 1941, but I can guarantee you that there are Russian generals today looking southward at China with worry, while Chinese generals are looking northward with hunger.
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Very good point. Mark Steyn covers this extensively in his book, "America Alone." Demographics are everything, and the long, heavily armed border between Russia (with its plentiful resources) and a land hungry China could present a very serious challenge for the future of the new world order.
 
Prometheus The Supremo said:
i know. it's alot of cock waving but you can't rule it out. maybe they have some confidence that the west is tied up in other things or maybe they could be losing their minds. it is possible for someone to lose all rationality, regardless of the consequences. it's not impossible. people do stupid things.
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As someone who is involved in this business and sat in on the CDS brief regarding Russian bombers attempting to penetrate our ADIZ, I can assure you that every move is calculated....including ours.

One doesn't fly over a US carrier at 2000 ft, after passing a dozen of their escorts by accident. They are flexing their muscle and running their mouths a little. Let em. And don't let them get to ya. They can't do anything to Poland or the Czech Republic. That's why the bluster is becoming louder and harsher..... With their Georgian adventure though, they have guaranteed that the Poles and Czech will join the US missile defence program and that NATO is likely to finally launch its own program.....and they will be aimed at reducing the Russian deterrent.
 
Coruscanti Cognoscente said:
Russia will not attack Poland. Absolutely no way. It would force a U.S. response that Russia could not withstand.

Attacking Georgia, on the other hand, will eventually be accepted. Serbia lost Kosovo, so Russia will get South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

And I think it's very likely Serbia will want the Serb half of Bosnia too. And really, how can they say no? Bosnia is effectively partitioned as it is. If Serbia takes the Serbian half, I could then see Croatia wanting it's half of the Croat-Muslim half.
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I must admit, I'm skeptical at an immediate response from NATO... I could see them stall for months or maybe not even risk their own skins against Russia. It's a whole different ballgame when your opponent has the same nuclear capabilities as you.

Serbia + Bosnian Serbia would look like a beast with tentacles.. I have to admit, looks sweet:)
 
Pieces of the interview with Russia's ambassador to NATO:

Territorial Integrity of Georgia Impossible without Territorial Integrity of Serbia

“Preserving the territorial integrity of Georgia will not be possible without preserving the territorial integrity of Serbia in Kosovo and Metohija provinceâ€, Russian Ambassador to NATO Dimitry Rogozin said in Brussels.

“It is unacceptable to recognize the unilateral independence of Kosovo province from Serbia and, at the same time, keep repeating the territorial integrity of Georgia must be respected when it comes to South Ossetia and Abkhaziaâ€, Rogozin said at the press conference.

“If we all respect the territorial integrity of Serbia in regards to its Kosovo province, then we are also going to honor the territorial integrity of Georgia. But if someone doesn’t respect Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty over Kosovo and Metohija, then they better shut up about the territorial integrity of Georgiaâ€, Rogozin said.

He stressed that West won’t be able to “pretend nothing happened in South Ossetia, as if there was no bombardment of the civilian population, massacre of minorities and murder of the Russian peacekeepers committed by Tbilisiâ€.

On the other hand, “what NATO did in Yugoslavia — slaughter of civilians, destruction of the bridges on Danube, razing the Belgrade television and the rest, takes away their right to criticize Russia for any present of future actions,†Russian Ambassador said.

“Our critics behave like wolves, wanting to eat their sheep when hungry. But we are not a sheep, we are the Russian bear,†Rogozin said.

http://balkanblog.org/2008/08/15/te...ible-without-territorial-integrity-of-serbia/
 
"we are not a sheep, we are the Russian bear,†Rogozin said.
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maybe we should send over some san francisco bears to penetrate enemy defenses...

800px-Pride_2004_bears.jpg
 
Filip said:
Pieces of the interview with Russia's ambassador to NATO:

Territorial Integrity of Georgia Impossible without Territorial Integrity of Serbia

“Preserving the territorial integrity of Georgia will not be possible without preserving the territorial integrity of Serbia in Kosovo and Metohija provinceâ€, Russian Ambassador to NATO Dimitry Rogozin said in Brussels.

“It is unacceptable to recognize the unilateral independence of Kosovo province from Serbia and, at the same time, keep repeating the territorial integrity of Georgia must be respected when it comes to South Ossetia and Abkhaziaâ€, Rogozin said at the press conference.

“If we all respect the territorial integrity of Serbia in regards to its Kosovo province, then we are also going to honor the territorial integrity of Georgia. But if someone doesn’t respect Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty over Kosovo and Metohija, then they better shut up about the territorial integrity of Georgiaâ€, Rogozin said.

He stressed that West won’t be able to “pretend nothing happened in South Ossetia, as if there was no bombardment of the civilian population, massacre of minorities and murder of the Russian peacekeepers committed by Tbilisiâ€.

On the other hand, “what NATO did in Yugoslavia — slaughter of civilians, destruction of the bridges on Danube, razing the Belgrade television and the rest, takes away their right to criticize Russia for any present of future actions,†Russian Ambassador said.

“Our critics behave like wolves, wanting to eat their sheep when hungry. But we are not a sheep, we are the Russian bear,†Rogozin said.

http://balkanblog.org/2008/08/15/te...ible-without-territorial-integrity-of-serbia/
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Tit for tat. So it begins. Maybe. All the separatists in the world must love it. And I totally understand Russia's position.

At this point Russia's not going to give back that territory unless the US gives back Kosovo to Serbia. So I think that's that. Each side keeps what they gained, but no more.

It's kinda like after the Klingon-Cardassian war. The Klingons held onto some of their Cardassian winnings.

Also kinda like Poland after WWII, it lost territory in the east to Russia, so the West gave them parts of Germany it had once upon a time.
 
Dichotomy said:
Very good point. Mark Steyn covers this extensively in his book, "America Alone." Demographics are everything, and the long, heavily armed border between Russia (with its plentiful resources) and a land hungry China could present a very serious challenge for the future of the new world order.
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Not to confuse real life with fiction, but Tom Clancy's book The Bear and the Dragon is based somewhat on this topic and is a good read.
 
Re. US/NATO reaction to invasion of Poland
Filip said:
I must admit, I'm skeptical at an immediate response from NATO... I could see them stall for months or maybe not even risk their own skins against Russia. It's a whole different ballgame when your opponent has the same nuclear capabilities as you.
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If Poland has learned anything from 1939 it that you can not depend on distant allies or guarantors to protect you. The only way NATO can stop a Russian invasion of Poland is to have NATO boots on the ground before the invasion begins. This means NATO tanks, men, guns and airpower in Poland in such numbers that any invasion of Poland would be a total guaranteed loss for the Russians. I wonder how the Poles will feel with German soldiers in their territory again.

I wouldn't worry too much about Russia's nuclear weapons, at least the ICBMs. Almost all of Russia's boomer (ICBM armed) subs are in dock rusting without fuel, supplies or crew. The land based silos are likely is bad shape, and IIRC due to a volatile fuel mix there is a great chance that the missiles would explode in their silos. Once the US anti-missile system is in place, the Russian bear is essentially neutered.
 
I have a hard time imagining Russia's army is in such a sad state... Think about it, this is a country reasserting itself globally with an uncalculable amount of natural wealth and resources on its territory. Russia is probably actively reinvigorating their army, so that argument, that held some weight in the 90s during the commercial pause known as the Yeltsin government, is in fact 'neutered'.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Re. US/NATO reaction to invasion of Poland
If Poland has learned anything from 1939 it that you can not depend on distant allies or guarantors to protect you. The only way NATO can stop a Russian invasion of Poland is to have NATO boots on the ground before the invasion begins. This means NATO tanks, men, guns and airpower in Poland in such numbers that any invasion of Poland would be a total guaranteed loss for the Russians. I wonder how the Poles will feel with German soldiers in their territory again.

I wouldn't worry too much about Russia's nuclear weapons, at least the ICBMs. Almost all of Russia's boomer (ICBM armed) subs are in dock rusting without fuel, supplies or crew. The land based silos are likely is bad shape, and IIRC due to a volatile fuel mix there is a great chance that the missiles would explode in their silos. Once the US anti-missile system is in place, the Russian bear is essentially neutered.
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I don't think Poland wants NATO troops on the ground so much as it wants American military hardware. They've been making deal after deal to arm itself with American weaponry.

That said, I don't think Poland would be averse to German troops helping to defend it against Russia. Germany is a great ally and Polish people go to Germany a lot, love German cars, and know that Chancellor Angela Merkel is no Hitler. At least that's my impression. I haven't been in Poland in years (since 2001) and I'm kinda basing my impressions of the Polish attitude toward Germany on my family's feelings, so it might not be wholly accurate, if at all.

Regardless, NATO isn't just Germany. The USA is an important ally to Poland as well.
 
Even at the peak of its power, Russia's military might was exaggerated. I remember when that MIG defected to Japan (about 30 years ago, or something like that) and the Americans were shocked to discover they were still using vacuum tubes in lieu of certain transistors and integrated circuits.
Russia's great strength used to be the shear size of its standing army. Even with their nukes, who knows if they could hit New York from Siberia? Half the ICBMs would probably fall into the ocean. LOL Of course, what happens to the other half of the ICBMs would still be scary. :(

Our media loves to be dazzled by the 'progress' in both Russia and China, but I suspect a big chunk of that progress is all smoke and mirrors.

Sort of like the Olympics going on just now.
 
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