The Coming Disruption of Transport

[kEiThZ]

To be clear, I am not saying that the use of oil is going away anytime soon. But the electrification of transport will dramatically change the demand for oil. That in turn will massively change both economics and geopolitics.

When Africans are adopting electric Tuk Tuks, we're in another era. And far too many people are relying on past performance to predict linear adoption. Yet, never in history, has anything ever been adopted linearly.

 

[rbt]

When Africans are adopting electric Tuk Tuks, we're in another era. And far too many people are relying on past performance to predict linear adoption. Yet, never in history, has anything ever been adopted linearly.

Interestingly, I was reading about Cuba's rapid adoption of Chinese electric scooters the other day replacing vehicle ownership due to much much lower operating costs. The 60's American feel to their roadways, caused by sudden USA export controls, is apparently disappearing.

Cuba is clearly a special case but electric Tuk Tuks seems likely in countries without heavy retail gas price subsidies.

 

[kEiThZ]

Most of the world imports oil. And a lot of the places that import oil are poor. Burning their meager wealth for mobility is a bad deal. And unlike us they don't need 3000 lb SUVs and pickups to get around, so using batteries is actually much easier. Paradoxically, electrification might go much faster in the developing world because a lot of it will be two and three wheelers going electric.

 

[lenaitch]

Most of the world imports oil. And a lot of the places that import oil are poor. Burning their meager wealth for mobility is a bad deal. And unlike us they don't need 3000 lb SUVs and pickups to get around, so using batteries is actually much easier. Paradoxically, electrification might go much faster in the developing world because a lot of it will be two and three wheelers going electric.

Or we await the trend of EV's being stolen, stuffed in shipping containers bound of overseas.