The Coming Disruption of Transport

[just east of the creek]

The greener the grid, the greener the buildout of additional grid infra. That said, even solar PV manufactured using China's coal-heavy grid have a very low g CO2/kwh, around 40g, with a carbon payback in the range of 6 months.

One thing a lot of people get wrong is that the look at global primary energy consumption, and assume we have to replace all of that with renewable electricity TWH. This is just wrong, as most of that energy consumption is in the form of heat, which is subsequently wasted. And there are strategies for renewable heat that are lower cost than renewable electricity. We only really need to replace about 30% of primary energy consumption with renewables, and a lot of that can be thermal energy capture and thermal storage (as opposed to batteries).

And there is no shortage of lithium--it is highly abundant. Chemical battery chemistries are evolving to those that are as common as rocks. Sodium instead of lithium, aluminum instead of copper conductors, etc.

The one things that your replies have made clear to me is that their is much, much more to learn about this topic and the technologies involved. I’ll have to think about this a bit more, and it may be time to recruit some outside expertise to advise on longer term view of farming operations.

Thanks for the comments.

 

[afransen]

The one things that your replies have made clear to me is that their is much, much more to learn about this topic and the technologies involved. I’ll have to think about this a bit more, and it may be time to recruit some outside expertise to advise on longer term view of farming operations.

Thanks for the comments.

TBH, I haven't thought a lot about how farming will be electrified. I think this will take longer, as equipment needs high utilization for short bursts during the season, which is not the ideal use case for BEV. And large farms would see equipment far away from high power grid connections for charging.

I have seen some heavy diesel trucks get retrofitted with swappable battery packs. Maybe something along those lines would work for farming equipment, where you could bring batteries back to a central charging point on the farm. The input savings could be substantial. And if different pieces of equipment could share a common pack format, the investment could make more sense. I'm sure the manufacturers would love the lock-in, much like cordless tool brands.

 

[just east of the creek]

TBH, I haven't thought a lot about how farming will be electrified. I think this will take longer, as equipment needs high utilization for short bursts during the season, which is not the ideal use case for BEV. And large farms would see equipment far away from high power grid connections for charging.

I have seen some heavy diesel trucks get retrofitted with swappable battery packs. Maybe something along those lines would work for farming equipment, where you could bring batteries back to a central charging point on the farm. The input savings could be substantial. And if different pieces of equipment could share a common pack format, the investment could make more sense. I'm sure the manufacturers would love the lock-in, much like cordless tool brands.

Your common levels of equipment might include anything that is pto driven as well. Swappable power packs for the tractor, and the manure spreader. I suppose this would all revolve around endurance levels and the ease of swapping I.e would my wife be able to swap batteries while running the baler or is this a multi person operation? All very interesting to contemplate. It will be interesting to start see the real world review of the Case (and there are several others) BEV utility tractors. It will also be interesting to see real world information on their fully autonomous operations. We’re nearly there with GPS controlled seeding operations. This is the next step, removing the operator. In a 100 years and less, we have come from my grandfather and a large family, farming with heavy horses and oxen to another threshold of what could be pretty epic change.

 

[lenaitch]

Your common levels of equipment might include anything that is pto driven as well. Swappable power packs for the tractor, and the manure spreader. I suppose this would all revolve around endurance levels and the ease of swapping I.e would my wife be able to swap batteries while running the baler or is this a multi person operation? All very interesting to contemplate. It will be interesting to start see the real world review of the Case (and there are several others) BEV utility tractors. It will also be interesting to see real world information on their fully autonomous operations. We’re nearly there with GPS controlled seeding operations. This is the next step, removing the operator. In a 100 years and less, we have come from my grandfather and a large family, farming with heavy horses and oxen to another threshold of what could be pretty epic change.

Scalability will be an issue as well. There's physically only so large a battery you could stuff in a tractor, which probably would be enough to run a combine for a decent amount of time. Maybe two of the same type/size.

Edit: Meant to say 'wouldn't be'.

As you know, anything that smacks of downtime, especially during planting and harvesting seasons, will be a tough hill to climb. Some equipment can go from before sunup then well into dark, then sit for seven months. Keeping a fleet of these guys working a long way from decent grid power will be a challenge.

 

[afransen]

Just for fun, I looked up fuel consumption for combines. Seems 1-2 gallons/acre is the ballpark. Using the conversion from earlier, it's about 12-24 kwh per acre for battery electric. Case harvester has 250 gallon fuel tank, which would call for a 3,000 kwh battery for equivalent endurance. That's over 3x the size of the battery Tesla is putting in their class 8 truck. So, unlikely battery electric would be matching that kind of endurance. I guess a typical harvest rate is around 10-15 acres per hour (varies by many factors), so that would call for 200-300 kwh/h (aka kw). So a similar pack to Tesla's semi truck would give you perhaps 3-4 hours of run time. Of course, recharging those packs at that rate of consumption would be quite something. 200-300 kw is quite a draw.

I think displacing diesel from agriculture is going to be tricky!

Viewing a thread - Fuel per acre for combine

 

[MrGoose]

It seems like this is a case where hydrogen would be a stronger energy candidate source than batteries.

And given that these are industrial equipment, with fairly long life times they’ll probably stay fossil powered for a long time. They make up a comparatively small source of emissions so it’s lower priority

 

[afransen]

It seems like this is a case where hydrogen would be a stronger energy candidate source than batteries.

And given that these are industrial equipment, with fairly long life times they’ll probably stay fossil powered for a long time. They make up a comparatively small source of emissions so it’s lower priority

If you think batteries are a challenge, I think hydrogen fueling is an even bigger challenge. Hydrogen fueling stations are no joke, and cost an order of magnitude or two more than a DC fast charger. So farms won't be installing them on-site. Are we thinking swappable hydrogen tanks? But those tanks will still be large, heavy and expensive.

All this on top of the fuel being far more expensive than diesel.

 

[lenaitch]

Just for fun, I looked up fuel consumption for combines. Seems 1-2 gallons/acre is the ballpark. Using the conversion from earlier, it's about 12-24 kwh per acre for battery electric. Case harvester has 250 gallon fuel tank, which would call for a 3,000 kwh battery for equivalent endurance. That's over 3x the size of the battery Tesla is putting in their class 8 truck. So, unlikely battery electric would be matching that kind of endurance. I guess a typical harvest rate is around 10-15 acres per hour (varies by many factors), so that would call for 200-300 kwh/h (aka kw). So a similar pack to Tesla's semi truck would give you perhaps 3-4 hours of run time. Of course, recharging those packs at that rate of consumption would be quite something. 200-300 kw is quite a draw.

I think displacing diesel from agriculture is going to be tricky!

Viewing a thread - Fuel per acre for combine

Great analysis.

One thing some of the zealots don't get - the ones who want to turn all the taps off now' - is we need this economy to get to the next one. We can't grow 34 million tons of wheat in a greenhouse.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think it would help if more EVs didn’t look like rolly bins or jelly beans,

 

[Cambry Ardship]

The rich sensory experience of internal combustion? Perhaps the obvious headwinds he mentions in the second paragraph and glosses over--particularly cost--are the real issues, rather than EVs being just too darn quiet, efficient, and not meeting his boomer brain car expectations.

 

[crs1026]

The rich sensory experience of internal combustion? Perhaps the obvious headwinds he mentions in the second paragraph and glosses over--particularly cost--are the real issues, rather than EVs being just too darn quiet, efficient, and not meeting his boomer brain car expectations.

The "boomer" thing is a bit of a cheap shot (as it usually is). Most of the testosterone laden idiots who love the aftermarket mufflers and drive stupid on the 401 are too young to be the boomers.

But hey, the boomers were no different, and I may resemble that remark. Give me a '67 Shelby Mustang over a 2024 F150 any day. ;-)

- Paul

 

[Cambry Ardship]

Sure, it's a cheap shot but I'm not particularly inclined to be generous when the op-ed's author is making an argument not just from an aesthetic viewpoint, but from the aesthetics of nostalgia.

The idiots on the 401, as you rightly point out, are young, but I think their collective relationship with cars and their clique compared to broader society is also quite different now than it would have been for the author in his youth.

 

[crs1026]

The idiots on the 401, as you rightly point out, are young, but I think their collective relationship with cars and their clique compared to broader society is also quite different now than it would have been for the author in his youth.

I'm not so sure. Having been young once, I would have to agree with the author that there is a "thrill" attached to operating powerful machinery. And to speed.

And to be a bit pedantic on the history - auto mania predates the Boomer generation - I recently spotted a couple of Norman Rockwell prints of groups of young men working on and souping up Model T's. Certainly there were "hot rods" by the 1940's, and lots of them built and driven by the Boomers' parents in the postwar era before the Boomers were old enough to drive. Detroit certainly cashed in on this trend through the 60's, but by the 70's safety regulations and environmental regs stripped the industry of its ability to turn out mass-marketed muscle cars. And Detroit entered a quality slump. More recently, performance autos are much more of a niche market.

The more technocratic issue is, there is probably wisdom in vehicles that deliver auditory and tactile feedback to the operator as they apply power and achieve speed - but should that stimulus be constructed to represent a "thrill"? We have the ability to build in sound systems that give the operator whatever feedback they desire - a Prius could in theory be programmed to sound like a Maserati - however I would argue that there is no inherent right to impose that sound track on the community. So external sound should be whatever creates the safest envelope for anyone near the road, but nothing more. If the internal sound floats the driver's boat, that isn't necessarily a bad thing.... provided they operate their vehicle legally and responsibly. The mere presence of that synthetic sound track might actually encourage bad behaviour, however.

If that makes cars more dull, maybe it's a good thing. I would argue that societal norms have changed and the desire for safer roads now overrides the "thrill" of the open road - just as the "pleasure" of cigars has become subordinate to the public's right to clean air in public spaces.

Maybe as we move to EV's there is a growing market for off-the-highway private racetracks where those who want that thrill can indulge themselves. And maybe there will be more of a "heritage" perspective to that hobby. I wonder if society will allow the emission of small amounts of carbon to let people continue to drive ICE vehicles for pure pleasure. I'm with a group that has to procure very small amounts of steam locomotive coal, and it's not clear that even as a heritage matter that will be permitted much longer.

So I agree with your anti-testosterone thrust, but hey, let's lay off the Boomers

- Paul

 

[afransen]

EVs are not lacking in power or speed. They just don't make vroom vroom noise. I think it is intolerable to operate modded exhaust in cities. Noise pollution is deadly.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The "boomer" thing is a bit of a cheap shot (as it usually is). Most of the testosterone laden idiots who love the aftermarket mufflers and drive stupid on the 401 are too young to be the boomers.

But hey, the boomers were no different, and I may resemble that remark. Give me a '67 Shelby Mustang over a 2024 F150 any day. ;-)

- Paul

I’m no boomer, but I love the mechanical clicking a puttering exhaust of a vintage motorcycle anyway over an e-scooter.