The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy?

[just east of the creek]

The other note I would add is that the Trump Government will begin to push a 3% minimum on defence spending. They will threaten their participation in NATO unless this happens.

In theory I have nothing against this. We cheerfully give billions and billions away in other ‘social’ causes, the frontlines of any type of conflict grow closer each month, and we have played a fantasy game, regardless of government, since the days of Trudeau Mark 1.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The other note I would add is that the Trump Government will begin to push a 3% minimum on defence spending. They will threaten their participation in NATO unless this happens.

Canada’s hasn’t been meaningfully over 2% of GDP since the 1960s. Let’s get to 2% first.

 

[just east of the creek]

Canada’s hasn’t been meaningfully over 2% of GDP since the 1960s. Let’s get to 2% first.

Thank you for the graph. And your comments. Respectfully I would suggest that we not fixate on 2% as ‘the’ number. Anything between 3 and 4% would allow for a smallish but well equipped and supported (reserves and para-military coast guard) force that would allow the country to begin to project a more meaningful impact on the world stage.

 

[kEiThZ]

3% is never happening. I say this as a serving member. We don't have the capacity to absorb that kind of spending. And the taxes and/or cuts required would kill any government politically. For reference, 3% of GDP would be more than OAS.

 

[afransen]

Trump won't be around to enforce 3%.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I would suggest that we not fixate on 2% as ‘the’ number.

We "fixate" on 2% because that's our formal commitment, first made by PM Harper at the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales, and repeated by PM Trudeau at the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid.

Harper was particularly ridiculous as he had just presented a budget with the lowest defence spending (0.98% of gdp) since before ww2. To his credit, since taking power in 2015, PM Trudeau has increased defence spending by almost 60%, even when adjusted for inflation (2014: $19b vs. 2024: $30b, approx.). Poilievre was a junior cabinet minister under Harper, and the old man still holds sway; so we'll see what our defence spending looks like under PM Poilievre.

If with nudges from the White House we can get to 2% under Trudeau or Poilievre by 2028-30 the CAF will have come a long way towards your proposed well equipped, compact and capable force. We forget how small the CAF are today: if we take all full time and reserve personnel, plus the Canadian Rangers we get to about 100,000 people. For perspective, here's 100k+ people at Bryant-Denny Stadium at the University of Alabama. Our entire Canadian Armed Forces would sit down and still leave space for more.

 

[kEiThZ]

We forget how small the CAF are today: if we take all full time and reserve personnel, plus the Canadian Rangers we get to about 100,000 people. For perspective, here's 100k+ people at Bryant-Denny Stadium at the University of Alabama. Our entire Canadian Armed Forces would sit down and still leave space for more.

I wouldn't get too hung up on this. Most countries with volunteer militaries aren't putting millions in uniform.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Our government's about to go tits up, so let's see what defence spending looks like in 2025. Likely PM, Pierre Poilievre was a minister in Stephen Harper's 2014 government which drove down post-war defence spending to its lowest ever at 0.98% of GDP.