The Ascendancy of Toronto

[TrickyRicky]

We are of course revealing our growth as positive bias. I think this bias is so universal and fundamental that it must be hard-coded into the human brain. Maybe in evolutionary terms we evolved to link population growth with progress because amongst competing factions, all things being equal, the side with greater numbers wins. Population stagnation for example says nothing about standard of living. As a resident of a city improvements in standard of living are vastly more important to the individual than population growth. And yet strangely we would feel presonally defensive if associated with a city not growing and bristling with confidence in a city with a population boom.

 

[Parkdalian]

Thanks for the update. My numbers were from 2006. I just verified and the city of montreal is still hovering at 1.6-1.63 in 2010.
Many people are blind to the fact that Montreal has fallen and it's importance has really diminished. Sometime in the 2020s Calgary will surpass Montreal. However, Montreal will have a bigger metropolitan area for a while longer.

Yeah, and the larger metropolitan is all that really matters. Calgary has no greater metropolitan area because it is identical with the city - its city boundaries encompass farmland, and the land enclosed is twice the size of Montreal's city boundaries. Montreal also went through its "demerger" process recently, so parts of the island aren't officially Montreal, even though they are clearly Montreal. So, even if Calgary reaches 2 million in 2030, it won't really come close to beating Montreal's 3.6 million metro boundaries. If we only go by city boundaries, Hamilton and Vancouver are about the same size in population.

And let's not forget that the US had a city that was similarly focused on one industry, and that at a time, was the fourth-largest in the country: Detroit. Extrapolating endlessly into the future is a fool's game.

 

[adma]

And further in the "so what" category...

London 1931: 8,110,480
London 2006: 7,657,300

Lagos 1931: 126,108
Lagos 2006: 7,937,932

 

[CDL.TO]

And further in the "so what" category...

London 1931: 8,110,480
London 2006: 7,657,300

Lagos 1931: 126,108
Lagos 2006: 7,937,932

That sums it up nicely, adma.

 

[ladyscraper]

Thanks for the update. My numbers were from 2006. I just verified and the city of montreal is still hovering at 1.6-1.63 in 2010.

Do you know Toronto's 2010 population number by any chance? It's not for the purpose of this discussion. I'm just curious and don't know what it is.

 

[Thanos]

And further in the "so what" category...

London 1931: 8,110,480
London 2006: 7,657,300

I wasn't aware Montreal went through ww2 and 20,000+ people living in the city died and over 1 million houses were destroyed. Very ignorant comment on your part.

"Montreal also went through its "demerger" process recently, so parts of the island aren't officially Montreal, even though they are clearly Montreal."

Montreal merged and then demerged. It's current area is still larger than what it was before the initial merger. The only areas in the metropolitan that are growing are Laval and the south shore communities, and no they are not clearly Montreal.

"Do you know Toronto's 2010 population number by any chance? It's not for the purpose of this discussion. I'm just curious and don't know what it is."
I believe it's just under 2.6, however, i didn't verify this. I'm just going with what i remember.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Do you know Toronto's 2010 population number by any chance? It's not for the purpose of this discussion. I'm just curious and don't know what it is.

2.7 million.

 

[Parkdalian]

I wasn't aware Montreal went through ww2 and 20,000+ people living in the city died and over 1 million houses were destroyed. Very ignorant comment on your part.

Uhhh. No. What are you talking about? The population drop in London had nothing to do with WWII. Don't play the moral high ground when this has nothing to do with morality.

"Montreal also went through its "demerger" process recently, so parts of the island aren't officially Montreal, even though they are clearly Montreal."

Montreal merged and then demerged. It's current area is still larger than what it was before the initial merger. The only areas in the metropolitan that are growing are Laval and the south shore communities, and no they are not clearly Montreal.

You are missing the point. Comparing cities populations based upon their city boundaries is pretty arbitrary, since they are a result of political decisions and do not necessarily reflect the organic growth of cities. Population is also a poor proxy for political, social and economic importance, as the comparison between London and Lagos points out.

And extrapolating into the future is largely pointless - I know, I used to work as a forecaster. One of the biggest revolutions last century - containerization - destroyed some cities and made others more powerful. No one predicted how important it would be at the time. Only in the future will we see that certain forces are already bringing about the destruction or the ascendency of certain cities.

 

[ladyscraper]

2.7 million.

wow! That is quite the increase in just 4 years. I wonder what caused the spike compared to the last few 4 year periods... maybe the suburban rush into the core to live in condos?

 

[taal]

2.7 million.

No I don't think so ... where is this from ... I don't think our population is above the 2.6 mark yet.

 

[kool maudit]

i guess thanos is one of those kind of doom-and-gloomy ex-montrealers.

you see them in the comments pages of online newspapers a lot.

 

[Parkdalian]

No I don't think so ... where is this from ... I don't think our population is above the 2.6 mark yet.

The Ontario government thinks our population is about 2.68:

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/

We should keep in mind that the 2006 census probably had a big undercount for Toronto, so there's likely going to be a big jump in 2011 (if the Cons don't put their fingers on the scale somehow). According to the census, our population in 2006 was supposed to be 2.5 million in 2006. It was probably actually closer to 2.55. 2.68 in 2010 would be approx 5% growth in four years - high, but not impossible, and in line with the 1% growth per year the entire country experiences.

 

[junctionist]

Oddly enough, the City of Toronto's website claims it's 2.48 million. With all the new condos and immigration, the population should be rising. The 2.68 million figure sounds believable. I wonder when they'll update the highway signs.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

wow! That is quite the increase in just 4 years. I wonder what caused the spike compared to the last few 4 year periods... maybe the suburban rush into the core to live in condos?

Probably. I'm leaving Oakville as soon as I finish Uni. Toronto is the cheapest of the whole GTA in terms of property taxes too so that might be a factor.

 

[loggedout]

I am amazed that almost everyone around me is so convinced that Toronto and area is going to remain a great place to live. Well, I want to challenge that notion. I believe this area is destined for a severe economic downfall. Due to the twin forces of globalization and technology, we continue to good paying jobs that are not being replaced. The core base of our region's communities are being hollowed out and it's becoming increasingly cost prohibitive to perform any real productive work in the area.

I am an educated young working professional born and raised in the golden horseshoe and I am extremely worried about my future here to the point where I am not making any life decisions that will make it difficult to move away at the drop of a dime.

To be fair, whatever I believe is going to happen to Toronto and area is what is happening and already has happened throughout the developed world.