SmartTrack (Proposed)

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm quite confident that if the municipal winds shifted and there were no longer a City-level booster for ST, Metrolinx and the Province would forget about it in a nanosecond, agreement or otherwise.

There is merit to having more GO stations in the 416, and hopefully that strategy hangs around..... without all the bogus aspects of ST as a "transit system".

- Paul

I don't see SmartTrack lasting very long after Tory is no longer mayor. Whatever SmartTrack winds up being, it's looking like it will require a big municipal subsidy to keep this service running, which City Planning expects very, very few people to ever use. When it inevitably comes time to cut services to keep property taxes below inflation, whatever SmartTrack's subsidy above the standard TTC subsidy is should be one of the first items on the chopping block.

 

[steveintoronto]

SolidBMinusTrack

lol...I've used SmarmTrack, SmartyPantsTrack before, but a new one just struck me: OffTrack...as in betting.

 

[steveintoronto]

I don't see SmartTrack lasting very long after Tory is no longer mayor. Whatever SmartTrack winds up being, it's looking like it will require a big municipal subsidy to keep this service running, which City Planning expects very, very few people to ever use. When it inevitably comes time to cut services to keep property taxes below inflation, whatever SmartTrack's subsidy above the standard TTC subsidy is should be one of the first items on the chopping block.

I'm on the fence on this one.

I think it is a good plan in some ways, but being implemented in a very haphazard way. Certainly two people sitting in the same chair to eat the same meal is a problem, doubtless. Reminds me of a Laurel and Hardy skit arguing over the pea on the plate. And anything good to say about ridership would be hard to make a case for save for the 'new' (repurposed) UPX!

Will it ever break-even? Doubtful, but that being said, it still promotes transit at a speed and efficiency almost unmatched in the GTA. Perhaps I'm making the argument more for RER, or at least the Bramalea south leg. What doesn't make sense is the City building palaces for stations, when a platform, a ticket kiosk and a few bus shelters will suffice. Think of the Bloor Station before becoming what it is now, or the still extant Acton station. I believe these are what the Brits and others call "halts" rather than stations. If they prove to be far more popular than originally thought, then spend money on them. Ontario (and I'm no Neo-Con) is already in hock for massive amounts. I don't begrudge that, that's the cost of 'catching up' with other conurbations vastly ahead of us, but a lot of that money could be spent a lot more wisely.

I still don't see why a 'pre-RER" couldn't be up and running Bramalea to Union within a year using redundant and idle locos and coaches, F-59s and three coach bi-levels waiting for refurbishment. You can't have a beef-roast every day of the week. Sometimes left-overs do just fine.

without all the bogus aspects of ST as a "transit system".

Agreed. For any kind of shared over-lap to work, the fares must be integrated, or the concept becomes impossible. I can't see how any other option can work using the same trains to deliver the service. Once the same price per incremental distance applies to both systems (and they divide shares of the total take by a pre-agreed formula) then it will work against itself, rather than for.

 

[Rainforest]

Disagree there. $700 Million for a investment that will move only 14,000 people per day. That's less ridership than 40 surface routes. SmartTrack is a terrible, terrible use of municipal funds. By far more wasteful than the Sheppard Subway and SSE. Perhaps even worse than Ford's proposed Finch Subway, which would've moved at least 3x more people. John Tory is throwing our money down the drain.

Meanwhile Tory claims we don't have funds for public housing, and that the TTC needs to slash its budget by 2.5%.

$700 Million : 14k riders per day. Don't ever forget that.

I believe that the correct metrics is (# of riders) times (average # of kilometres travelled). Each of those 40 surface routes may have more boardings than SmartTrack, but the majority of their riders will travel a short distance only. In contrast, SmartTrack will handle longer / crosstown trips, which are very inefficient to serve by local / frequent stop routes.

If you look at the daily # of boardings only, discarding the distances travelled, then half of the GO lines should be ditched.

 

[Rainforest]

SmartTrack = GO RER, plus a few more stations and a few more trains. As such, SmartTrack does exist, and will exist. No more than that, though.

 

[steveintoronto]

SmartTrack = GO RER, plus a few more stations and a few more trains. As such, SmartTrack does exist, and will exist. No more than that, though.

Pretty much agreed, and I propose an idea on keeping things simple, albeit it might already have gone over the top:

Those "extra stations" (which TO is on the hook for half the price, and they won't be cheap): Perhaps consider the TTC own and run them, the extra trains are completely in the GO domain, and the "extra stations" are the minimum necessary to physically link with the TTC, steps down to a streetcar stop at Parkdale, for instance, and the 'station' is just a platform halt with some shelter, much like the GO bus stations at hubs like Aberfoyle, a thermal radiating heater that comes on below, say, 10 degrees C, and shelter against wind and rain. No parking lot, just 'show up and GO'. Since it's unlikely that the TTC and GO aren't going to integrating fares anytime soon, and the majority of riders will enter/exit at more major stops, these 'halts' are to integrate in an operational sense with local TTC routes and local neighbourhoods. Nothing fancy, clean, functional and affordable.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I believe that the correct metrics is (# of riders) times (average # of kilometres travelled). Each of those 40 surface routes may have more boardings than SmartTrack, but the majority of their riders will travel a short distance only. In contrast, SmartTrack will handle longer / crosstown trips, which are very inefficient to serve by local / frequent stop routes.

If you look at the daily # of boardings only, discarding the distances travelled, then half of the GO lines should be ditched.

Okay. Can we agree that SmartTrack generally supports longer distance trips within the City of Toronto. Let's compare to lines with similar ridership profiles.

The least used of our crosstown subway RT lines, the 5 Eglinton Line, is expected to have 194,000 riders per day at a cost of $5.4 Billion. That's an investment of $27,800 per daily trip.

SmartTrack is proposed to move 14,000 people at a cost of $700 Million. That's an investment of $50,000 per daily trip.

Both of these lines support crosstown travel. What about SmartTrack makes it worthy of 2x the investment that Eglinton Line commuters will be recieving? Especially considering that SmartTrack will be of benefit to an infinitesimally small fraction of Toronto commuters, that it's not projected to provide travel time savings for anybody but people heading to the immediate vicinity of Union station (hence its tiny expected ridership), and when we have a backlog of dozens of other projects that would surely benefit several times more people than SmartTrack ever will.

 

[steveintoronto]

What about SmartTrack makes it worthy of 2x the investment that Eglinton Line commuters will be recieving?

SmartTrack as originally proposed will never see the light of day, so it's moot to use those figures.

Especially considering that SmartTrack will be of benefit to an infinitesimally small fraction of Toronto commuters

I beg to differ. I offer UPX as an example, now carrying multiples more people than its initial roll-out as airport only. At peak, UPX is now at least twice seating capacity for the two car consists. And there's a massive market to tap north of Weston on that same corridor. Comparing to Eglinton misses the point. A corridor already exists, grossly under-utilized, and there's spare rolling stock already extant to run a leg of RER Econo from Bramalea south to Union, perhaps through and north from Scarborough Station, that will move *many* people, and relieve the subway at the same time, let alone reduce traffic on the roads from the suburbs served.

that it's not projected to provide travel time savings for anybody but people heading to the immediate vicinity of Union station (hence its tiny expected ridership)

Completely disagree. It will save *mucho* time. How can a bus from Bramalea that serves stations down to Union be faster? It will also serve that very Eglinton RT you mention, Bloor Subway, Bramalea, Parkdale (King streetcar, one of the busiest routes in TO) and more. And ostensibly on a fifteen minute interval.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Okay. Can we agree that SmartTrack generally supports longer distance trips within the City of Toronto. Let's compare to lines with similar ridership profiles.

The least used of our crosstown subway RT lines, the 5 Eglinton Line, is expected to have 194,000 riders per day at a cost of $5.4 Billion. That's an investment of $27,800 per daily trip.

SmartTrack is proposed to move 14,000 people at a cost of $700 Million. That's an investment of $50,000 per daily trip.

Both of these lines support crosstown travel. What about SmartTrack makes it worthy of 2x the investment that Eglinton Line commuters will be recieving? Especially considering that SmartTrack will be of benefit to an infinitesimally small fraction of Toronto commuters, that it's not projected to provide travel time savings for anybody but people heading to the immediate vicinity of Union station (hence its tiny expected ridership), and when we have a backlog of dozens of other projects that would surely benefit several times more people than SmartTrack ever will.

Crosstown LRT apparently has a pretty low cost/benefit ratio too. I know because I had to listen to an engineer groan on for five minutes about how no sane city would build the Crosstown.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

SmartTrack as originally proposed will never see the light of day, so it's moot to use those figures.

I'm using the most recent numbers from our chief planner for the current SmartTrack vision. It'll cost $700 Million to move 14,000 people per day.

I beg to differ.

SmartTrack is expected to represent 1% of Toronto's rapid transit tips and 0.5% of all transit trips in 2031. The Crosstown LRT, the least used of all major rapid transit lines, will represent 20% of rapid transit trips.

I offer UPX as an example, now carrying multiples more people than its initial roll-out as airport only.

How is UPX a remotely good example? It completely missed its ridership targets, so much so that it even made the Sheppard Line look decent. The only reason decent usage (for an airport train at least) is because Metrolinx was forced to slash fares to save them the embarrassment of running empty trains. The UPX failed at is vision to be a revenue neutral airport transit line.

Completely disagree. It will save *mucho* time. How can a bus from Bramalea that serves stations down to Union be faster? It will also serve that very Eglinton RT you mention, Bloor Subway, Bramalea, Parkdale (King streetcar, one of the busiest routes in TO) and more. And ostensibly on a fifteen minute interval.

Two factors contribute to its low speed comperitiveness:

1. It's a very low frequency "rapid transit" line. 15 minutes intervals for most of the day, sometimes a little better. The problem is that during the mean waiting time, passengers can travel a long distance by subway or even bus. Unless you arrive at the RER station right as the train arrives, taking the subway will generally be faster. Also a factor is we know passengers waiting for a vehicle perceive time to be slower than when they're moving in a vehicle. So even when SmartTrack is marginally faster than existing options, we know customers will be predisposed to taking the subway, which will have them waiting and "doing nothing" for less time.

2. The Union Station transfer to the Line 1 is time prohibitive, especially during rush hour. The transfer is a long and congested walk. For many trips, that's enough to make existing options faster for all trips except those with destinations in the immediate vacinity of Union Station. For example, SmartTrack may be faster for Kennedy to Union, but it won't be faster for Kennedy to Dundas.

It's poor competitiveness is reflected in the report by the professional planners, who expect it to have only 14k trips per day. It's expected to become a competitive option only when frequencies are boosted to 5 to 10 min. The chief planned herself said ridership would plummet if frequencies were less than 10 minutes (I'm paraphrasing).

 

[ssiguy2]

The reality is that both ST & RER will end up being white elephants if they bring in standard GO prices. GO is expensive and in Toronto there is excellent, although slow; transit already. You would think Metrolinx and Queen's Park would have learnt this by now with the UPX. Providing better and faster service doesn't mean every all the employers are all of a sudden going to give everyone a raise so they can take it or their landlords are going to drop the rent. RER/ST could be a stellar success with hundred of thousands using it everyday and could eventually equal the current TTC subway ridership if the syste gets big enough and the frequencies are there. Conversely RER/ST could end up being a massive failure that bleeds red ink and steals operation funding from the rest of the system and for the money spent it could make Mirabel look like a bargain. It's all going to come down to the price.

The absolute minimum must be 100% far integration but the system could have subway ridership if it was just the standard TTC fare which is what it should be. Ontario shouldn't be spending upwards of $10 billion on a two-tiered transit system.

 

[EnviroTO]

The least used of our crosstown subway RT lines, the 5 Eglinton Line, is expected to have 194,000 riders per day at a cost of $5.4 Billion. That's an investment of $27,800 per daily trip.

That is quite the cost recovery period / service life you are using there. The second day the Eglinton Line will free and clear with everything haven been written off on day one. From day two onward it will look highly profitable.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

That is quite the cost recovery period / service life you are using there. The second day the Eglinton Line will free and clear with everything haven been written off on day one. From day two onward it will look highly profitable.

I'm confused about the point you're trying to make. Are you trying to point out that RER will be less expensive to operate per passenger than Line 5? If so, we already know that RER will be by far the most subsidied transit service in the city. That's simply the nature of regional rail with limited passengers churn.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The reality is that both ST & RER will end up being white elephants if they bring in standard GO prices. GO is expensive and in Toronto there is excellent, although slow; transit already. You would think Metrolinx and Queen's Park would have learnt this by now with the UPX. Providing better and faster service doesn't mean every all the employers are all of a sudden going to give everyone a raise so they can take it or their landlords are going to drop the rent. RER/ST could be a stellar success with hundred of thousands using it everyday and could eventually equal the current TTC subway ridership if the syste gets big enough and the frequencies are there. Conversely RER/ST could end up being a massive failure that bleeds red ink and steals operation funding from the rest of the system and for the money spent it could make Mirabel look like a bargain. It's all going to come down to the price.

The absolute minimum must be 100% far integration but the system could have subway ridership if it was just the standard TTC fare which is what it should be. Ontario shouldn't be spending upwards of $10 billion on a two-tiered transit system.

SmartTrack would be a massive success if and only if it has frequencies significantly higher than 10 minutes. We see this reflected in the U of T report, which projected something like 200,000 riders per day (maybe more). But that would require huge financial investment that we're not prepared to make at the moment.

At 15 minute frequencies, SmartTrack is a dud; it's completely uncompetitive with existing options. Hence the City's projections anticipating virtually nobody using it. These aren't my projections, they're City Planning's - a department that's frequently been criticized as being in bed with Tory.

And keep in mind that these projections were performed at TTC fares. Just watch how quickly they collapse further once the fare premium is factored in.

It Toronto is going to do SmartTrack, its needs to do it right. Otherwise we're just burning hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

[W. K. Lis]

There are cities in the U.S. that make do with 15 minute headways.

They are also more heavily subsidized than either GO Transit or the TTC. If we had the same subsidies, SmartTrack could be run at 10 minutes headways, except for the signalling issues.