SmartTrack (Proposed)

[steveintoronto]

Still haven't pored over this, but get a very different reading from the link you provide, Tiger:
[...]
These ridership forecasts show that:

SmartTrack is capable of capturing significa
nt ridership assuming a TTC fare and five
minute service, regardless of the growth
scenario or the horizon year. For example,
using the base case scenario, forecasts for
2031 indicate daily boardings ranging from
282,990 to 321,436.

SmartTrack assists in providing congestion
relief on the Yonge Subway at the critical
point south of Bloor. For the base SmartTra
ck network scenario this is currently
calculated at 17% in both 2031 and 2041 with 5 minutes headways (see Table 3.1 and
Appendix Table I.5 in the Summary Report).
[...]
https://www1.toronto.ca/City Of Tor...PDF/SmartTrack Ridership Forecasts Report.pdf

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Still haven't pored over this, but get a very different reading from the link you provide, Tiger:
[...]
These ridership forecasts show that:

SmartTrack is capable of capturing significa
nt ridership assuming a TTC fare and five
minute service, regardless of the growth
scenario or the horizon year. For example,
using the base case scenario, forecasts for
2031 indicate daily boardings ranging from
282,990 to 321,436.

SmartTrack assists in providing congestion
relief on the Yonge Subway at the critical
point south of Bloor. For the base SmartTra
ck network scenario this is currently
calculated at 17% in both 2031 and 2041 with 5 minutes headways (see Table 3.1 and
Appendix Table I.5 in the Summary Report).
[...]
https://www1.toronto.ca/City Of Toronto/City Managers Office/Intergovernmental Relations/Files/PDF/SmartTrack Ridership Forecasts Report.pdf

What you're not realizing is that the service concept for SmartTrack has changed dramatically since January 2016.

In January 2016, and the base case for that study:
- TTC fare
- 22 Stations
- 5 minutes headways

In July 2016, SmartTrack has been reduced to:
- 13 Stations
- 15 minute headways
- Some form of fare premium

So the SmartTrack concept that's currently on the table has more expensive fares, fewer stations and lower frequencies (headways). This changes everything about the ridership analysis, and is the reason why City Planning is anticipating only 14,000 riders per day.

 

[steveintoronto]

I suggest readers access these two stories before accepting Tiger's scenario. I had detailed posts, went over max characters, lost it all, can't even edit. Screw that...it's happened too many times on this forum for me. This forum software needs a character limit indicator before posting.

Access the links:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...re-far-greater-than-expected/article28253223/

http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2016/01/city-releases-smarttrack-ridership-projections

Edit to Add:
The real anomaly is regarding fares, and most everyone agrees that both GO and TTC have to change their fare structure. GO must reduce it for short trips, (which are distance based, but with a high minimum surcharge) and the TTC (and other regional systems) must move to a distance-based fare system, which Presto ostensibly makes possible.

A lot of the inconsistencies now being witnessed as per fares and how that impacts ridership will be addressed. That is one of the *huge* "missing factors" I wrote of with my first series of posts on this particular subject. Unless the TTC can charge what the SmartTrack fares are worth, it will never make economic sense. The TTC and GO should be charging the same rate per distance to keep fare integration linear, workable, and inter-changeable. The advantage of SmartTrack would then be *frequency*, and that's really the inverse of the fare structure, as higher frequency indicates more usage, and thus the system is closer to 'paying it's own way' (farebox recovery).

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I suggest readers access these two stories before accepting Tiger's scenario. I had detailed posts, went over max characters, lost it all, can't even edit. Screw that...it's happened too many times on this forum for me. This forum software needs a character limit indicator before posting.

I recommend writing your posts in other software and then pasting in the forum when they're complete; especially if you're writing long posts.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I suggest readers access these two stories before accepting Tiger's scenario

It's not my scenario; I'm simply repeating the findings of the City's study.

 

[steveintoronto]

I recommend writing your posts in other software and then pasting in the forum when they're complete; especially if you're writing long posts.

It was in HTML text, quoted.

It's not my scenario; I'm simply repeating the findings of the City's study.

You posted a scenario, whether it was yours or not. You made a claim with it. That claim has been examined and analyzed elsewhere with quite a different conclusion. That is also a scenario, albeit with more context.

 

[ssiguy2]

Let's get to the brass tax..............when is the ST electrification portion and new stations for ST suppose to be completed by?

I know it's part of a "10 year plan" but seriously, that 10 years includes electrification all the way to Barrie and the entire Lakeshore East & West. This relatively small electrification could easily be done in a year as it's a surprisingly easy procedure. It's essentially like putting up light posts nowadays.

I know Tory wanted at least some of the ST system up and running by the end of his first term. Is that still feasible if they decided to actually start building it? As long as the trains are available and electricication is done , ST can begin operation. If all the stations aren't done that doesn't matter as they can be fazed in.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

You posted a scenario, whether it was yours or not. You made a claim with it. That claim has been examined and analyzed elsewhere with quite a different conclusion. That is also a scenario, albeit with more context.

That study came to a different conclusion because it used a completely different service concept. I don't know why this is hard for you to understand. Nothing you've posted has refuted anything I've said

 

[crs1026]

Before we get too wound up about the latest ridership numbers.....

It's absolutely true that ST is no longer a 'transit network for Toronto'. Now it's more like 'adding a few GO trains'.

Is there anything wrong with adding a few more GO trains? No, unless it costs a lot of money and/or if the trains are implemented badly and run empty. Or if we grandstand and claim we've discovered fire and the wheel (and try to make the voters love us).

I was not impressed at Jennifer Keesmaat's speech the other day about how ST was going to "reset the balance between serving regional versus urban interests". (her words, as close as I can remember them)). It sounded too much like Scarboro demanding a subway. The original GO premise is perfectly fine, and has been executed well for almost 50 years. Now we've found an add-on that serves new ridership. That's great, but we don't need to frame it as a we-they grievance or a score to settle. It's just added bang for close to the same buck.

I'm inclined to support the trains, it's helpful to have these new stations and the original GO service is not diluted. I'm just not going to bow down in awe of Tory for getting us here.

PS: the best precedent that I can find for what ST will look like is Metra's Rock Island line. Two flavours of EMU service - one very local, one regional. Same equipment, same branding, just different stopping patterns.

- Paul

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

I think adding 14k daily riders to GO lines by adding a few more stations to be admirable. I imagine with a cheaper integrated 416 fare, it would be even greater.

But the problem ultimately is the SmartTrack branding, the mayor's and city planner's insistence on it being a thing, and how it detracts from the planning of other transit projects (Relief Line, Scarborough subway). I also don't understand why Toronto is now on the hook for paying for these GO-RER stations.

It is funny how John Tory's electoral vision for transit has come down to "adding more GO-RER stations in Toronto". Literally the one thing nobody in Toronto was really asking for during the election. His doubling-down on it is stranger yet - how is it going to play out in his campaign for re-election in 2018? All the polling done indicates that the Relief Line and to a lesser extent, Scarborough subway, are the transit issues concerning Torontonians.

 

[mdrejhon]

Without the GO RER initiative, perhaps "Now it's more like 'adding a few GO trains'." is accurate. But there's GO RER.

While "SmartTrack" is a brand-name liability, these are NOT your grandfather's GO trains.

These trains will come frequent enough (In some sections of the route, as frequent as 5-10 minutes) that the core central section of the GO map will deserve to now be included on TTC subway maps, as part of an integrated 416 transit network.

But yes, I agree, the SmartTrack "branding" is a liability.

To me, SmartTrack is just really the name of an umbrella initiative (like "Big Move") that consists of Eglinton Crosstown West, and a bunch of very reasonable and much-needed municipally-funded enhancements to GO RER. The marketing of "SmartTrack", however, is definitely understandably barf-worthy.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

These trains will come frequent enough (In some sections of the route, as frequent as 5-10 minutes) that the core central section of the GO map will deserve to now be included on TTC subway maps, as part of an integrated 416 transit network.

Just which stations will see 5-10 minute frequencies? Some of the new, core area stations proposed (e.g. Spadina) will see frequent trains passing through/by, but the stop is restricted to one line. Which kind of defeats the frequency argument.

AoD

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Is there anything wrong with adding a few more GO trains?

When adding a few more GO trains will cost Toronto taxpayers about $1 Billion, yes, there's absolutely something wrong with that. $1 Billion for only 14,000 riders; most people here wouldn't have supported spending that same amount of money to move the Sheppard Subway's 50,000 riders.

 

[salsa]

"It's time for SmartTrack truth, not fairy tales."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...orontos-transit-conversation/article30569729/

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

"It's time for SmartTrack truth, not fairy tales."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...orontos-transit-conversation/article30569729/

Mr. Tory says that the city needs to have an “adult conversation” about how to pay for better transit. It would help if politicians treated them like adults in the first place instead of trying to dazzle them with transit fairy tales.

The problem of course is that the city aren't adults, and unicorns is what they wanted. Is it any wonder it sells? And of course, bemoaning adulthood is kind of late considering this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...hn-tory-is-torontos-best-bet/article21147510/

Mr. Tory’s signature electoral plank has been his SmartTrack transit plan, a proposal to use existing above-ground rail lines to create a better commuter network for those living outside Toronto, and a kind of surface subway for those in the city. He says it can be done much more cheaply and quickly than the alternatives. He also claims it can be built entirely without raising property taxes, using what is known as tax-increment financing (TIF), or additional taxes drawn from the private development of nearby land.

The Tory plan has its good points. It builds on a provincial plan to electrify the GO transit lines and turn them into all-day, two-way services. It is mostly about intensifying and accelerating what the province is already planning. It also has the advantage of creating a U-shaped line passing through the heart of the city, but whose tips will lie outside Toronto. Those ridings are contested Conservative-Liberal turf at the provincial and federal levels. Mr. Tory’s plan recognizes the benefits of that political reality.

Opponents and critics have attacked the plan on a number of grounds. New revenues from TIF may not be enough to cover the city’s one-third share of the $8-billion tab. Taxpayers may end up paying at least part of the freight. That wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Toronto has been living in a political fantasy world where voters want government to do more – but as taxpayers, they don’t want to pay for it. The result is gridlock and half-measures, further eroding confidence in government’s ability to do anything – phenomena found in other major Canadian cities now facing elections, including Vancouver, Ottawa and Mississauga.

I guess their board is ran by a bunch of kids afterall.

AoD