Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[Sunnyside]

i already addressed this before i saw your post, but those pockets you describe are the only place they can justify building stations. Line 4 would be more successful as an express line, eliminating the three stations in between Yonge and Don Mills and routing all buses to those major hubs. bus routes already connect to Bayview and Leslie yet they still attract very lower ridership. the station that attracts the highest ridership on Line 4 (Don Mills) is also the station where most buses are frequently routed to, which is not surprising.

This is a byproduct of the line being too short. From Bayview/Leslie, Line 1 is close enough that taking Line 4 adds a needless transfer, and likewise is only marginally more useful getting to Don Mills compared to a bus. The distance where the transfer becomes worth it is evidently Don Mills and beyond. The stations before it would likewise benefit more from destinations further away from Yonge, creating trips that didn’t exist before (Bayview-Consumers, Yonge-STC, etc).

Essentially, at a certain distance a subway beats any local transit. But Line 4 is not that length, maybe scratching the surface with Don Mills. It simply does not connect enough people to enough destinations for riders to justify it. I guarantee that if Line 4 were extended east or west, ridership at every stop would grow.

Toronto is lucky to be a system that doesn’t need to look solely at density to determine where transit infrastructure is needed. Our bus routes are much clearer indicators. Their ridership also typically correlates with density.

You also can’t just close stations. Just because there isn’t ridership today, doesn’t mean that once extended they won’t become popular. Line 4 was never intended to be this short; it is unfinished, and it’s ridership reflects that.

 

[Aplus23]

This is a byproduct of the line being too short. From Bayview/Leslie, Line 1 is close enough that taking Line 4 adds a needless transfer, and likewise is only marginally more useful getting to Don Mills compared to a bus. The distance where the transfer becomes worth it is evidently Don Mills and beyond. The stations before it would likewise benefit more from destinations further away from Yonge, creating trips that didn’t exist before (Bayview-Consumers, Yonge-STC, etc).

Essentially, at a certain distance a subway beats any local transit. But Line 4 is not that length, maybe scratching the surface with Don Mills. It simply does not connect enough people to enough destinations for riders to justify it. I guarantee that if Line 4 were extended east or west, ridership at every stop would grow.

Toronto is lucky to be a system that doesn’t need to look solely at density to determine where transit infrastructure is needed. Our bus routes are much clearer indicators. Their ridership also typically correlates with density.

You also can’t just close stations. Just because there isn’t ridership today, doesn’t mean that once extended they won’t become popular. Line 4 was never intended to be this short; it is unfinished, and it’s ridership reflects that.

Exactly - we have 1 current east/west line with any sort of length, soon we will be getting crosstown, and lakeshore line, nothing above Eglinton in terms of a east west alignment.

 

[Sunnyside]

well hopefully that helps with attracting more ridership. as of now some of the lowest ridership numbers come from stations located on Line 3, Line 4 and the Vaughn extension. typically these extensions can only be justified if they are a well connected regional hub. it's more the stations in between that attract the very lower ridership numbers. the Bessarion's, Leslie's etc... and examples of that exist on Line 1 and 2 as well. Yonge/Sheppard and Don Mills actual do quite well, so I see your point.

the highest ridership numbers still mostly come from stations located south of Bloor and it's pretty obvious why that's the case and why there should be more of them built in the future.

It is undeniable old Toronto is where the highest ridership will be. No doubt. But, transit infrastructure is lacking in the rest of the city, and while we may see suburban expansion as subsidized today, that will not always be the case. Something tells me Lines 1 & 2 are fairly self-sustaining far out into the suburbs. We must deal with the hand we are dealt, not tear it all down. Most of our current plans follow where riders will be, with few white elephants anymore. We are building the OL after all.

 

[blacksquirrels]

This is a byproduct of the line being too short. From Bayview/Leslie, Line 1 is close enough that taking Line 4 adds a needless transfer, and likewise is only marginally more useful getting to Don Mills compared to a bus. The distance where the transfer becomes worth it is evidently Don Mills and beyond. The stations before it would likewise benefit more from destinations further away from Yonge, creating trips that didn’t exist before (Bayview-Consumers, Yonge-STC, etc).

Essentially, at a certain distance a subway beats any local transit. But Line 4 is not that length, maybe scratching the surface with Don Mills. It simply does not connect enough people to enough destinations for riders to justify it. I guarantee that if Line 4 were extended east or west, ridership at every stop would grow.

Toronto is lucky to be a system that doesn’t need to look solely at density to determine where transit infrastructure is needed. Our bus routes are much clearer indicators. Their ridership also typically correlates with density.

You also can’t just close stations. Just because there isn’t ridership today, doesn’t mean that once extended they won’t become popular. Line 4 was never intended to be this short; it is unfinished, and it’s ridership reflects that.

yeah i agree with most of this, but any system can definitely just close stations whether temporarily or permanently, while still running a through service. of course they can just close them. whether it's worth it to or not is a different question worth debating, but any station can be closed tomorrow if needed. ghost stations in Berlin where a subway literally ran through two different countries is just one example. don't say ridiculous things like they can't just close them.

 

[Voltz]

We have to start giving people what they want instead of forcing a technology they don’t want on them. LRT has been dead since transfer city and David Miller. Let it rest in peace and be happy we’re getting transit built.

Transit is being built on Sheppard?

Could have fooled me.

 

[Islington Express Bus]

Of course you would. Your bias is in your name. You live out west and want as much transit which you might use at the expense of the people out east. This is no better than David Miller and his pet projects.

The west has the Bloor line, eglinton west and the finch lrt.

The east sadly only has the danforth line. Eglinton east. Sheppard subway and the Ontario line. Can you not clearly see how underserved the east is?

I basically live right in the middle between Finch and Eglinton in a complete rapid transit dead zone. No subway or LRT will ever run here. My local GO station is being closed to make way for Doug Ford's casino station vanity project.

I do not feel well-served by current or future transit plans, but I get it, the area I live in is just not a priority for various reasons, and those same reasons apply to a lot of Scarborough.

 

[Sunnyside]

We have to start giving people what they want instead of forcing a technology they don’t want on them. LRT has been dead since transfer city and David Miller. Let it rest in peace and be happy we’re getting transit built.

This may come as a shock to some, but we can use multiple modes citywide as we expand our transit network where they are appropriate. Transit City was right to consider beefing up the local routes people use to travel, but seemingly forgot that there must be downstream capacity (more subways) to accommodate them. Sheppard should and will be a subway because it already is one, and a linear transfer is silly. Not to mention that it will connect two other subway lines and concentrate demand from Scarborough to North York.

yeah i agree with most of this, but any system can definitely just close stations whether temporarily or permanently, while still running a through service. of course they can just close them. whether it's worth it to or not is a different question worth debating, but any station can be closed tomorrow if needed. ghost stations in Berlin where a subway literally ran through two different countries is just one example. don't say ridiculous things like they can't just close them.

I think closing subway stations that were built just over 20 years ago is a bad idea because it doesn’t give time for the areas to fully develop around them, especially when the line is effectively unfinished. Let’s not forget that while low, ridership on Line 4’s intermediate stations is not zero- they are fairly high for North American standards, just not Torontos standards.

I don’t mind the notion of an express service that bypasses these stations if you want Line 4 to be a fast crosstown route. That hinges upon an extension however- Demoting Line 4 from a 4-stop stub to a 1-stop stub won’t do anyone any favors. I always thought making it a branch of Line 1 would be a good idea given it’s short length, but we don’t really do branching for subways here.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

All the discussion we're having in this thread feels so premature. Sheppard extension is so low-priority and so far away. Things like current density and travel patterns won't be relevant by the time this line starts being planned in like 20 years.

The following Toronto projects should have priority over a Sheppard extension in my opinion:

• All current projects (Eglinton, Eglinton West, Ontario, Finch, Yonge North, Scarborough Subway) <---some of these have barely started
• Ontario line north
• Ontario line west
• Waterfront LRT, east and West
• Finch LRT extensions to Pearson and Yonge
• Eglinton Pearson extension

Honestly, I'd extend Sheppard west for network connectivity purposes before extending it east.

I think Ontario Line West and North will come as one and Finch to Yonge will come first. Mississauga will stall out the Crosstown Pearson.

Sheppard might come sooner than we think, but the whole thing has to be built. Only building the east side will be a band-aid, for ridership and only doing the west will piss people off.

Sheppard West to McCowan

 

[afransen]

honestly the subway should have never been extended to those places. it's called buying votes. the core of the city will forever subsidize these extensions.

View attachment 459021

you see the part of the map where it's red in every direction? that's the only place where subways/metros could theoretically justify being built. why? because it actually has the population density required to not be subsidized in perpetuity. an area needs at minimum a 10,000 per square km population density to justify it economically. otherwise it just bleeds money in operational cost yearly. Line 4 will always be subsidized no matter how far you extend it. the yellow belt will never have the population density to justify subways. you just want it or feel like you deserve it because you live in one of these suburban areas. GO can fill the suburban need if it's scaled properly like an S-Bahn. if the GO train is too expensive then talk to your MP about fare integration, which should happen anyways in my opinion.

Thanks for the chart. It kind of goes to show that the real problem in the GTA are the old suburban areas/donut around Toronto. Some of the more recent suburban areas are actually decently dense, like NW Mississauga, N Brampton, the outskirts of Markham. Maybe that goes to show that at least our greenfield developments are not so bad. But everything within 1 km of Sheppard really should be zoned for intensification.

 

[Sunnyside]

Thanks for the chart. It kind of goes to show that the real problem in the GTA are the old suburban areas/donut around Toronto. Some of the more recent suburban areas are actually decently dense, like NW Mississauga, N Brampton, the outskirts of Markham. Maybe that goes to show that at least our greenfield developments are not so bad. But everything within 1 km of Sheppard really should be zoned for intensification.

TOD can only do so much. Sheppard stations are zoned for density, albeit not a 1km radius- I believe it is 450m for MTSAs.

The inner suburbs are where the problem lies, namely places built when density minimums were at or below 35 ppl/ha. Greenfield development in Ontario is dense; minimums today are up to 50-60ppl/ha for greenfield development. For a time it was as high as 70-80ppl/ha, but Ford canned that and I don’t know of any subdivisions built to that density in the GTHA.

I think Ontario Line West and North will come as one and Finch to Yonge will come first. Mississauga will stall out the Crosstown Pearson.

Sheppard might come sooner than we think, but the whole thing has to be built. Only building the east side will be a band-aid, for ridership and only doing the west will piss people off.

Sheppard West to McCowan

OL North & West will be separate- the latter has a less clear business case with GO expansion, while OL north is a simple elevated extension with the case to relieve Line 1 further. Such a connection might make Sheppard more useful, or less.

I don’t doubt that Sheppard is in the Queue. Based on the tidbits we’ve seen posted here, it might be part of a “next wave” in 2031 with OL North when current projects complete. Sheppard west is a city idea, so who knows on that front. It feels like it’d have less of an impact without the eastern extension, but I guess a lot of people will want to travel across the U without going to Eglinton.

 

[W. K. Lis]

If the suburbs want a heavy rail subway, then they'll need to rezone the neighbourhood from low-density single-use to high-density multi-use. Not just along the single block where the subway will be, but within a 15-minute walk of each station.

 

[toronto647]

Infrastructure Ontario Market Update - March 2023

Projects in Planning Phase: Transit and Transportation

Sheppard Subway Extension

I assume they are working on this in the background until the next elections come around and they announce this project and as well as EGLRT Airport Extension alongside maybe another 1-2 projects.

Market Update Link - https://www.infrastructureontario.c..._Market_Update/Market Update - March 2023.pdf

 

[nfitz]

Infrastructure Ontario Market Update - March 2023

Projects in Planning Phase: Transit and Transportation

Sheppard Subway Extension

I assume they are working on this in the background until the next elections come around and they announce this project and as well as EGLRT Airport Extension alongside maybe another 1-2 projects.

Market Update Link - https://www.infrastructureontario.c..._Market_Update/Market Update - March 2023.pdf

Interesting to see it in the same category as the Hamilton LRT. Which perhaps say more about the lack of progress on the Hamilton LRT.

 

[Sunnyside]

Interesting to see it in the same category as the Hamilton LRT. Which perhaps say more about the lack of progress on the Hamilton LRT.

With Horwath as mayor, it shouldn’t be a surprise the province moved it back even more. Instead of being cancelled, now it gets to exist in purgatory. Great. I’m officially going to start a bandwagon to just make it a subway at this point, since nothings happening anyway.

 

[Undead]

Be careful what you wish for. On a long enough timeframe, every Toronto transit project becomes a subway.