Drunk driving is the only reason that seniors would be interested? Really? You're speaking for a lot of people there. What about seniors who can't drive anymore but still want to be mobile without relying on another person to chauffeur them around? There are lots of reasons that people would want an autonomous car. Maybe you want to do work while going somewhere. Or take a nap. Or just not worry about fighting traffic on your daily commute. Current autonomous cars need a human to be there just in case, but that's only because the technology is still in its infancy and hasn't been perfected yet. Eventually the technology will be proven and the legislation will catch up. Then there will be no need for a person to have to take control.
You misread my post (and I was a bit unclear.) I was comparing seniors to drunk drivers. Both of whom would be unable to drive one from alcohol, one from age or loss of sight, etc. My Dad's a perfect example, he hasn't been allowed to drive in 20+ years because he's legally blind, but once fully autonomous is available, he could again - well sort of, he's just plugging in a destination. And I'd be borrowing his if I'm going to party or bar far away.
To clarify, my reference to horseless carriages was a semi-facetious reference to cars. Yes they're still on the road, over a billion of them. That's my point. Referring to classic cars that are still driven occasionally, it's anybody's guess how these will be handled. Maybe they'll be grandfathered and still be allowed on roads. Maybe they'll be limited to specific roads only, the same way a horse and buggy can't use a freeway. Maybe there will still be a few roads here and there where people can still drive traditional cars. Maybe they'll be restricted to racetracks.
Your probability of causing an accident may not change, but it will skyrocket relative to all the autonomous cars around you. Insurance rates will be a non-issue once human driving is illegal. And it will be.
Human driving will never, ever be illegal in my lifetime (next 40 years - hopefully) Smoking isn't illegal and it's guaranteed to kill, and they've known that for 50+ years and the best they've done is restrict where you can do it. There's no way they'll make driving illegal for the foreseeable future. (my lifetime) I really don't care how they do it in a century, I'll be long dead.
Drivers licenses as we know them will become obsolete. And yes, just as very few people know how to control a horse and buggy, I expect that very few people in the future will know how to drive. It will be a niche activity that won't be widespread. Roads will probably be redesigned to make them incompatible with human drivers anyway. Autonomous cars will need less space for example, and there will be no need for signage. I'm sure that Google, Tesla and the rest have exactly the issues with malfunctions you mention in mind in the design and testing of their cars. And that's why they're being tested so extensively and will no doubt be introduced gradually. Even with the current technology autonomous cars don't cause accidents the way that humans do. I did a quick Google search and apparently 1.3 million people die on the roads every year, with another 20-50 million injuries. Self driving cars couldn't possibly be worse than that. It's carnage out there.
Roads will be made incompatible with human driving? Seriously? Maybe the 400 series highways, and maybe eventually everywhere but, in like a century. And this would be fine by me anyways, the twisty two lane sideroads are way more fun. We can't afford Subways in this city or maintaining the roads we have properly and you think all of a sudden a whirlwind of change will show up and everything will get repaved to a new system? Who's paying for all that? I'll be long dead when they're complete. And how can they repave a whole system until everyone has an autonomous vehicle? Are they going to mandate everyone must buy a new car within a decade? People would lose it - and all their analog cars would be worthless, so no resale value to put towards the new car. It's not like the government will be able to give everyone rebates and build all new roads in a short period of time (even a decade.)
Although, I guess there'll be a whole lot of truck drivers out of work, so there's a workforce to repave the roads, but you still have to pay them and buy all the new asphalt, or whatever material they make roads out of in the future.
Look, I'm not arguing it's isn't coming, I'm just arguing that it's widespread use isn't coming anytime soon - and the government will never be able to mandate their use, or make driving illegal in the foreseeable future. Again, I don't care what they do in 50 years.
Like I said in my first post, I know I'm a dinosaur, I actually enjoy driving and will continue to own and buy cars without this technology. Heck, I don't even buy cars with automatic, I've only ever owned manual cars. Until they price me out either by insurance, or by gasoline prices, I will continue to drive.
It will also put Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini and the rest of the super sports car companies out of business, and insurance companies to a degree. What's the point of having a 'sporty' autonomous car? They'll all be going the same speed.