My sources of information are the same as yours -- public documents. I don't get internal TTC papers, and myself have big issues with the way both the TTC and Metrolinx does their financial projections.
Like SOS, my concern is with politicians and the public who must deal with competing visions and claims about the transit system. If SOS considers itself so insignificant that my reply to Move Toronto is excessive, then they must also assume that their proposals won't have an effect. Things like this get around, and there needs to be a response when simplistic "solutions" are presented. Simplistic? That's how a lot of Transit City is portrayed, and the SOS thread (among others) here seems to be dedicated to demolishing that plan (and side-swiping me in the process). A 15-page response won't be read by the candidates, but it will be read by their advisors who might point out the banana peels strewn on their path if they blindly embrace Move Toronto.
Some here have commented that I have the time to dedicate to this as I'm now retired. Yup, ever since April 2009. All those years of transit activism back to the 1970s came out of my own spare time and the tradeoffs I had to make about what was important in my life. I won't make snotty comments about the amount of time students might have on their hands compared to people who have paying jobs as that is a cheap shot. We all care about the city we live in and work, in whatever way we might, to improve it. SOS at least produces a proposal and tries to promote its ideas. Some prefer just to carp from the (often anonymous) comfort of a comment thread.
I have read your critique, and I will begin drafting a rebuttle as soon as I have time (likely on Tuesday). It was me who wrote the majority of the report, so I think it's only fair that I defend it. Some of the criticisms you do make are valid, but I think a few of them are just a misunderstanding or you were perhaps expecting a greater level of detail than what SOS is able of technically capable of delivering.
Three things that immediately struck me:
1) The "low estimates" that we gave for the subway cost projections. We did not do detailed work on this, merely we used the estimate of $300 million/km, which while not 100% accurate, is fairly close. By comparison, the Spadina extension is $306 million/km, and the size of the proposed stations on that line could rival the cathedrals of Europe...
2) The idea that GO Transit (particularly with the Georgetown corridor and the Richmond Hill corridor) should be responsible for removing a large portion of the traffic load from the existing subway network. While I see the merits in the electrification of the GO network, I very dubious about its effectiveness at relieving the existing subway network. Particularly the Richmond Hill GO Line, which will offer no connections to the subway or LRT network inside of Toronto except at Leslie (Oriole), and Union. This may work as a substitute for those who are originating from Richmond Hill and going to the CBD (the crowd who currently boards at Finch and rides the whole way down), but does very little for anyone inside of Toronto, other than freeing up a couple of seats on the subway which, if Transit City does what it's supposed to do, will be filled up again by someone transferring from an LRT onto the subway.
This whole thing is assuming that a) frequencies on GO can reach the point where it is actually convenient for people to transfer from the subway to GO for an alternative route downtown (particularly with the Georgetown corridor transfer at Bloor), and b) that fare integration is actually implemented so that it doesn't make it more expensive for people to choose that alternative route. Given the TTC's reluctance to accept new forms of payment technology, I am skeptical that that will be done properly.
If both of those conditions materialize, then yes, it would work. But that is a very thin line to walk, and if either of those do not materialize, higher numbers of riders are going to be using the same size subway network they are today. The difference between success and a complete boondoggle with this scenario is a little bit too close together for my liking.
3) That the BRT/BRT Light lines won't provide any additional capacity. My point is: they don't have to. The bus system today is oriented around taking people from their home or business to the closest subway station. The main issue today is the distance which people have to travel in order to reach that subway station. People slowly pile on along the entire length of the route, and once the bus reaches the subway, nearly all, if not all, of the passengers exit the bus onto the subway. If there are more options for a subway transfer, there is a higher likelihood that the number of passengers that will be on the bus for the long haul will decrease. In essence, more subway options will create a higher turnover rate on the bus route, negating a lot of the need for additional capacity on these routes.
Overall, I find many of the points you made in your critique to be valid, and I have rebuttled a few here in hopes of opening some CIVIL dialogue (looking at people on both sides of the issue when I say civil), in hopes of making a more sound plan, even if it does come with a few compromises. I am not opposed to making changes, as long as those changes are informed and rational.