Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
Another first in the history of modern warfare - Russia has deployed a battle penguin.
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Russian-Ukrainian War (2022- )
- Thread starter Towered
- Start date
nightstreak
Senior Member
I want to believe this is true but Orban has become so entrenched because he gets to set the rules aspiring competitors have to play by, can move the squares on the chessboard at will and even if defeated will probably declare himself the winner with Putin’s backing.
The shape of the war in Ukraine would certainly change with a more unified Europe and a weakened Putin but that’s precisely why Putin will move mountains to ensure he doesn’t lose ground with his puppets.
Please share some of your optimism. I could use it.
Richard White
Senior Member
He did but the opposition became unified somewhat last year once a major player came onto the field with the Tisza Party.
As I said before, his key to victory was controlling the state media in small villages where internet and newspapers were not as prevalent. There were enough of those small villages to swing the votes his way.
Unfortunately, Peter Magyar his opponent has been travelling across Hungary to all these small settlements and villages holding rallies and talking to people. Now that people know he exists and the things he stands for, he is giving Orban a run for his money.
Alot of the 50 year olds don't like him because they are somewhat tech saavy and know better but the much older generation loves him because they know the Orban that stood up to Communism in 1989.
Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
If public opinion polling is anything to go by, there is room for cautious optimism. Tisza Party has enjoyed a healthy lead for a better part of a year now. Fingers crossed they don't nosedive right before the election. Then again, I don't know nearly enough about the robustness and fairness of the Hungarian electoral system to know how likely such public opinion polling is to translate to how the election is called.
source
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Richard White
Senior Member
The polling is only as reliable as to where it was taken from.
Index and some independent outlets are fine but if they are from the state adjacent outlets it would not be so reliable.
I have alot of family over there across the country and was there last year. The sense I got is that Orban is losing his grip on power, that people are getting tired of his ties to Russia and venture away from Europe.
nightstreak
Senior Member
The biggest worry is that this is Belarus all over again. Lukashenko kept a thin veil of popular democratic choice (and I do mean thin) that was just barely enough for plausible deniability but once the people voted him out and the election results were undeniable, Putin cut through the remaining veil and Belarus became an overt Russian backed territory with a puppet under Putin’s control and Russian forces active within its borders to tamp down popular revolt.
Putin could not afford to lose Belarus and he can’t afford to lose Hungary which along with Slovakia are flanking Ukraine from the west — which is incidentally why weakening or eliminating NATO via Trump would give him access to Poland, completely surrounding Ukraine.
The cards could start to fall if Orbán is not only defeated but in fact removed from power. Which is why I don’t think defeating Orbán electorally is going to be enough.
Putin could not afford to lose Belarus and he can’t afford to lose Hungary which along with Slovakia are flanking Ukraine from the west — which is incidentally why weakening or eliminating NATO via Trump would give him access to Poland, completely surrounding Ukraine.
The cards could start to fall if Orbán is not only defeated but in fact removed from power. Which is why I don’t think defeating Orbán electorally is going to be enough.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
There's no overland way for Russian troops to get to Hungary. That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important. NATO would intervene in Hungary.
Richard White
Senior Member
There is actually. They can go through Ukraine.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
That's why I said above, "That's why taking Ukraine would have been so important." But as today's map showing the frontline shows, clearly Russia cannot reach the Ukraine-Hungarian border.
Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.
storymaps.arcgis.com
Richard White
Senior Member
I honestly hope they don't. I would rather not be conscripted.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Of course, but it's hardly a realistic concern. See the map I posted above, and here. It's over 1,500 kms from the front line at Zaporizhzhia to Budapest. Between early November 2025 and early January 2026, Russian forces advanced roughly 18.5 kilometers, at an average pace of 297 meters per day. At that rate it would take over five thousand days (14 years) to reach Budapest. I think your homeland is safe.
nightstreak
Senior Member
They’re not taking over Hungary over land, sea or air. They’re taking it over the internet. The same way they’ve done with the US.
Towered
Superstar
In recent weeks Ukraine has actually liberated several villages and smallish tracts of territory, so Russia is losing ground.
Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
Liberation of a couple tiny hamlets by UAF does not make up for the steady onslaught of Russians being thrown into the meat grinder.
Russia has been steadily gaining around 400 square kilometers a month for over a year now. While December-January are showing a slight decrease in their pace, that's a typical seasonal dip in the pace of their advance. Winter is bad for offensive operations in the drone kill zone - no foliage cover, and you stick out like a sore thumb on thermal cameras. However, even with that, the Russian advances are a lot bigger this winter compared to the last.
In December the Russians paid the price at a rate of 35,000 casualties per 350 square kilometers gained. Do your own math on that one...
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Lennox970
Active Member
This is the brutal facts on the ground. No matter the cost, Russia is incrementally gaining ground. I didn't know this winter's gains were greater than previous winters.
Presumably, Putin calculates that this is the endgame with negotiations in UAE resumed?