Rob Ford's Toronto

[SimonP]

How about Polls that are not paid for such as election predictions you ask? The last mayoral contest was declared a virtual tie, we all know how that turned out.

I've heard this talking point before, but it isn't true. If you look at the last ten polls released before the election, Ford was ahead in 9 of them, and in the final poll he was ahead by 15 points.

 

[jje1000]

The last paragraph is so very true, unfortunately.

Rob Ford’s bad week at Toronto City Hall

Rob Ford awoke on Friday morning to the following headlines: “Toronto Mayor’s Support Falls As Residents Overwhelmingly Reject Service Cuts: Poll.†“Ford’s Waterfront Vision Sinking Quickly.†“Two More Ford Allies Reject His Port Lands Vision.†“Arts Community Unites To Fight Ford.â€

It was enough to put even the most robust politician off his cornflakes. And that was just one day’s worth of bad news amid an awful week for his faltering mayoralty.

Less than a year after sweeping to office, Mr. Ford suddenly finds himself in deep trouble. Polls suggest his public support is plummeting. Key allies are deserting him. His plan to slash city spending is meeting fierce opposition. His biggest plans, from the Sheppard subway line to development of the Port Lands, are going nowhere.

What makes it worse is that he brought it all on himself. In his first half-year in office, he went from triumph to triumph, killing the car-registration tax, getting transit declared an essential service and starting the process of contracting out garbage pickup.

Then came a series of fumbles. His unofficial boycott of Pride Week gave off a whiff of intolerance that soured many voters. His decision to consider a host of service cuts despite an election pledge to avoid them, “guaranteed,†left people wondering whether they could trust his word. His lavish plan for malls and monorails in the Port Lands made him look like a two-bit real-estate huckster.

The ham-handedness of it all is breathtaking. Why drop the Port Lands bomb in the midst of a big fight over budget-cutting at city council? Why kick over a hornet’s nest by attacking Waterfront Toronto, the respected development agency? Why muse about closing libraries, a cherished service with a legion of supporters, including a little-known scribbler named Atwood? Why even consider lowering the axe on a beloved institution such as Riverdale Farm, where half the parents in the city have taken their kids. Mr. Ford did not just shoot himself in the foot. He took careful aim at each toe.

A cannier politician would have tried to bring Waterfront Toronto and other interests on board before springing a new Port Lands scheme on an unsuspecting city. Instead, he and his brother, Doug, browbeat the agency, brought in pricey consultants on the sly and plowed ahead.

Now the plan is blowing up in their faces. Two key city councillors, Jaye Robinson and Karen Stintz, say they will not support it. Two Ford allies, Peter Milczyn and Michael Thompson, are backpedalling. The leaders of a group of 147 professors and urban experts call it a “reckless†plan that would make Toronto a “laughingstock.â€

A wiser politician would have delivered a high-profile speech laying out the case for sensible, cautious cuts to end the city’s annual budget crisis. Instead, the mayor told reporters on Monday that there were no cuts, only “efficiencies.†Later in the week, he tried to scare voters by warning that they faced a 35-per-cent property-tax hike if the city didn’t close its budget gap.

Slippery talk and scare tactics aren’t working for him. Recent opinion polls show a big surge against the cuts and a big drop in his popularity. His political momentum is slowing just when he needs it most, on the eve of important meetings next week and the week after to decide what services go under the knife. Even Ms. Robinson, a Don Valley West councillor and member of Mr. Ford’s executive committee, says she is leery about making decisions about service cuts before she hears the results of studies on user fees and more efficient service delivery.

The sad thing is that most voters probably still support Mr. Ford in his drive for leaner city government with better customer service. They might support a sensible plan for rethinking waterfront development, too. It’s not just what the mayor is doing, it’s how he does it that rankles.

From the Globe and Mail: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...bad-week-at-toronto-city-hall/article2169644/

 

[adma]

Agreed. Besides, we just spent quite a bit of money on the square, deaths of any kind - enemy of otherwise - aren't exactly what I'd like to see associated with a civic landmark.

AoD

Does Jack Layton count?

 

[W. K. Lis]

The Ford regime wants the province to subsidize the TTC. Okay.

The Province of Ontario should provide 50% of the transit subsidy to the public transit agencies in Ontario, but at a cost to the municipalities.

The cost: representation on the agencies and commissions.

In the case of the TTC, that would mean almost 50% of the commissioners, or at least 4 out of the 9 commissioners (or 5 out of 10, if the number of commissioners is increased). That would mean resignations and replacement by people selected by the province. Just requires an Act to be passed by the Ontario legislators like they did with the no strike legislation.

 

[CN Tower]

Giving away monopolies to private business is the right's idea of "efficiency", nowadays? To me, the people posting "privatize garbage collection" at this point are either dumb, misinformed, or have something to gain from it. How does one expect to pay less for garbarge collection when you now have to support profits, as well? Only if many front-line workers receive significant wage cuts, in lieu of one person at the top collecting everything. How does that help the economy? And it's widely known that garbage collection is a magnet for organized crime. The evidence is a google search away. I don't understand why people are so stubborn in the face of so much overwhelming evidence that privatizing fucking everything doesn't make sense.

You are woefully misinformed.

My client friend in the property management business opted out of city garbage removal (is pay by the pound) and instead hired a private contractor to haul away his property's waste. The resultant savings to his building owner is in the magnitude of 40%!!!

And, to add more substance to this so poorly understood topic, the private contractor that he hired.........wait for it.........was the same company at was already hauling away the waste at the property for the City, only at a 40% Premium!

The culprit is this mass fleecing of the good people of this City is of course the unions; the same characters producing ridiculous polls showing Torontonians are opposed to budget cuts!

For the record I am in favor of raising property taxes on homeowners and lowering them on renters. Lower property taxes means lower rents for tenants and gives tenant more money to save for downpayments on future homes I am also in favor of increasing housing subsidies and privatizing social housing.

I voted for Mayor Ford but also voted for Premier McGuinty but will likely not vote for either one of them again. I have no allegiance to any particular political ideology and evaluate issues on their merit. To me there exists a mountain of waste in this City that needs to be dealt with in order to bring the budget back in balance.

The response to my $220B Ontario debt crisis was nowhere near comforting. To me this is the greatest threat to the future prosperity of this City and Province and yet no one is discussing it.

 

[dt_toronto_geek]

These numbers are loose, and conservative - reinstate the vehicle registration tax - $200M, leave the land transfer tax in place, if Ford can get the Province to subsidize the TTC by 50% = $225M, toll highways 75¢ coming into the city (401 at both ends, 404 at Steels, QEW at 427) - $55M. That equals $480M, the City's shortfall is more around $500-550M so $20-70M in efficiencies have to be found or a 1% property tax increase with no cuts to services or selling off of assets. Am I way off base here? The big unknown is getting the Province to fund the TTC operating subsidy by picking up 50%.

 

[jje1000]

I voted for Mayor Ford but also voted for Premier McGuinty but will likely not vote for either one of them again.

Good job sir, you now know that voting for a conservative populist who lacks a fiscal plan is just as bad as voting for a premier who, to many, has outstayed his welcome.

Now, let's look at the rest of the Provincial candidates and take a close look at their budget numbers. Unfortunately, they're just as bad!
The conservatives are proposing taxs cuts, spending increases and plan to apply Ford's gravy-witchhunt to the entire province. The NDP probably have no clue and plan to ride on people's memories of Jack Layton.

 

[MisterF]

Those who believe that Poll data are not massaged to suit the desired message of the customer are just the people that polls are conducted for. Did you really expect a pollster hired by CUPE would disappoint the client?

It happens all the time. Are you suggesting that the polling company is lying about the numbers? Were the questions leading? Was the sample size too small? I know people who work for polling companies; they're professionals just like anyone else and take pride in their work. Just because you don't like the results of the poll or who commissioned it that doesn't mean that it's automatically invalid.

Whether a poll is tainted or not depends on the methology, not by who paid for it.

Very true. If the methodology of a poll is sound then who paid for it doesn't matter.

 

[Justin10000]

Of course, but:

Fare collection can be almost completely automated and has been in most other major cities.

Many large systems retain fare collectors. It's not just about fare collection, it's about providing customer service, and you cannot do that with just machines.

 

[spider]

Originally Posted by spider
Those who believe that Poll data are not massaged to suit the desired message of the customer are just the people that polls are conducted for. Did you really expect a pollster hired by CUPE would disappoint the client?

It happens all the time. Are you suggesting that the polling company is lying about the numbers? Were the questions leading? Was the sample size too small? I know people who work for polling companies; they're professionals just like anyone else and take pride in their work. Just because you don't like the results of the poll or who commissioned it that doesn't mean that it's automatically invalid.

Originally Posted by AlvinofDiaspar
Whether a poll is tainted or not depends on the methology, not by who paid for it.
Very true. If the methodology of a poll is sound then who paid for it doesn't matter.

Gentlemen,
You are confusing market research, in which the pollster delivers raw non-nuanced data to the client because that is what they expect whether they like the results or not with polling for opinions that are to be made public.

A client that receives uncomplimentary results does not make them public, dumps the pollster and moves on to a company that understands the game and gives them what they want. You must have noticed that there is more than one pollster out there, if they all delivered the truth and nothing but the truth there would only be a need for one company.

My wife was employed for a number of years in the game and has seen just about it all.

 

[dt_toronto_geek]

any news on the case of exposing the Ford brothers using money from outside sources illegally to get elected....want to know if I can start planning my "impeachment" party...

Patience now, it was voted for the audit to go forward last week. IF irregularities are found he'll be more than be bounced, he could do time.

 

[MisterF]

Gentlemen,
You are confusing market research, in which the pollster delivers raw non-nuanced data to the client because that is what they expect whether they like the results or not with polling for opinions that are to be made public.

A client that receives uncomplimentary results does not make them public, dumps the pollster and moves on to a company that understands the game and gives them what they want. You must have noticed that there is more than one pollster out there, if they all delivered the truth and nothing but the truth there would only be a need for one company.

My wife was employed for a number of years in the game and has seen just about it all.

That's like saying that if there were any honest accounting firms downtown then there would only be one accounting firm. Of course there are multiple firms, this isn't Soviet Russia. You still haven't shown what specifically is wrong with the polls that say Rob Ford's popularity is plumetting. Is there something wrong with the methodology? Are the pollsters outright lying about the numbers? And if what you're saying is correct, shouldn't there be other polls commissioned by right wing bodies that show that Ford is as popular as ever?

 

[spider]

You still haven't shown what specifically is wrong with the polls that say Rob Ford's popularity is plumetting. Is there something wrong with the methodology?

Adding figures that seem to support the clients position would be questionable but deleting figures that damage the desired outcome happens routinely.

I find it odd that, to my knowledge, defenders of the poll in question have only made public two questions they asked. What about the rest?

 

[EnviroTO]

Adding figures that seem to support the clients position would be questionable but deleting figures that damage the desired outcome happens routinely.

Are you saying they are deleting questions with unfavorable results, polls with unfavorable results, or individuals in the population with unfavorable results. There is a huge difference. The first two make perfect sense from a group seeking supporting arguments, the last is lying.

The poll questions seem clear enough to me so unless you are suggesting there is deletions from the population then I have to accept their results.

 

[Jim12]

The only thing I'll add that I think is kind of ironic is that the LGBT community that already hated Rob Ford before he announced he wasn't going to attend, was even madder when he wouldn't come to their party. Which raises the rather obvious question... why are you upset that someone you hate isn't coming to your event?