Urban Sky
Senior Member
@MisterFAnd more to the point, those cases will have to prove that the jump in benefits from $4 to $20 billion in capex is worthwhile. VIA's own CEO has made the specific argument that you can get 80% of the benefit (and ridership) of HSR for 20% of the cost. It'll be interesting to see who can argue against that.
Your cost comparison is incorrect. The $20 billion for HSR is for the entire 1100 km route from Windsor to Quebec City, while the $4 billion VIA Rail plan is for Montreal to Toronto only. Furthermore, that cost could be higher than necessary, since the 2010 study inflated costs with odd assumptions, like every side road having an overpass rather than just being closed. Estimates of the Montreal-Toronto section of a TGV style system vary, but VIA puts the cost at $9 billion. So a more fair comparison would be $4 billion for the VIA proposal (3h30m Toronto-Montreal) compared to $9 billion for full HSR (2h20m Toronto-Montreal). So a bit more than double the cost to make it an hour and 10 minutes faster. How much of each would be privately funded remains to be seen. If the VIA proposal gets built their plan is to gradually upgrade it to full 300 km/h HSR over time. While I fully agree that the VIA plan is much more likely to get built, the difference in cost isn't as stark as you think. And either one is worthy of support.
The relevant cost figure is $3 billion (the 4th billion is for electrification and therefore optional) and the correct pitch line used by Desjardins-Siciliano is therefore "a third of the cost [of HSR] for two-thirds of the benefit", as quoted by The Huffington Post Canada:
The Huffington Post Canada said:But the dedicated passenger corridor would cost $3 billion ($4 billion if the track is electrified) and attract an estimated 7 million passengers, “so it’s a third of the cost for two-thirds of the benefit,” Desjardins-Siciliano says.
Unfortunately, I have no travel time estimates to share at this point, but 3:30 hours for what is currently 539 km with a relatively direct alignment would translate into a rather ambitious average speed of 154 km/h (or 87% of the targeted maximum speed of 177 km/h). Note, however, that the main motivation for this project is to create the additional capacity needed to remain relevant within the tightest cost and time frame possible rather than to increase speeds or even prepare for HSR - and this is reflected by calling the project HFR instead of HSR...
Last edited: