News   Mar 28, 2024
 480     0 
News   Mar 28, 2024
 321     0 
News   Mar 28, 2024
 332     0 

Poll by poll results for 2019 election

Very interesting.

A few observations:

  • In Scarborough North, you can see the Liberal/Conservative split among respective ethnic communities. The heavier Chinese, north-west area went Conservative, while the more South Asian south-east went Liberal.
  • In Davenport, polls north of Dupont with higher Portuguese and Italian vote went Liberal, while the southern half leaned more NDP.
  • The Conservatives have a suburb problem. In outlying GTHA ridings in Halton, Caledon, Flamborough and Durham, the rapidly growing suburban areas are slowly turning once reliably rural Conservative country Liberal.
I don't know much about the cultural geography of York Centre and Eglinton Bathurst, but it would be interesting to determine how certain pockets with high Filipino, Jewish and Caribbean communities voted.
 
Last edited:
Really poor showing for the NDP in Parkdale-High Park and Danforth. And they've been driven out of the Annex/Seaton Village as well.
 
York Region seems to be trending more Conservative compared to the rest of 905 (i.e. in the 40%-ish range rather than the Mississauga/Brampton/Ajax type blowouts).
 
Last edited:
Re: Danforth, the NDP vote likely inflated there in past federal elections due to the Layton legacy. This was probably the first election where Layton was not a factor, either directly on the ballot or his memory. At the municipal level it is less progressive than Davenport, Parkdale and even University-Rosedale.
 
Greens did quite well in the Annex/Harbord Village/Seaton Village, in double digit territory. Tim Grant was a strong candidate (and former HVRA president) with strong community roots and he appealed a lot to the traditional Annex-y set.

BTW I don't see the Green vs. NDP divide as "hip post-partisan professionals" vs. "old fashioned ideologues and unionists." That's not the dynamic in Toronto. I suspect a lot of the "post-materialist" Boomers that used to be in the NDP a decade ago have begun splitting their votes between the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens (only going NDP en masse in 2011 federal and 2018 provincial type situations).
 
Last edited:
BTW I don't see the Green vs. NDP divide as "hip post-partisan professionals" vs. "old fashioned ideologues and unionists."

I think the Adam Vaughan school of Liberals speak the language of the "post-partisan professional" much better than the Greens or NDP. The type of voter who likes funding for public transit and the environment, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or pharmacare.

BTW I don't see the Green vs. NDP divide as "hip post-partisan professionals" vs. "old fashioned ideologues and unionists."

The NDP still does well in Leslieville. I suspect the gentrification in Leslieville hasn't been as seismic as some similar west end hoods. The area also lacks a sizable bloc of Italian and Portuguese retirees who are reliable grit votes in Davenport.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top