lenaitch
Senior Member
Those numbers would be understandable and perhaps acceptable if our unemployment rate was 0%.
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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada
- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
afransen
Senior Member
Worth noting that 'medium growth' scenario of 63m from 40m over 50 years is 0.91% compounded.Stats. Can is out with their latest long term population forecast model.
Long term, essentially means 50 years or through to 2073.
Of course, this is mostly an attention-seeking vehicle for Stats. Can as so much can and will change in the world over such a period as to render the margin of error nearly infinite.
That said........
They project, under a medium growth scenario, that Canada will be 63M in 2073; which for argument's sake, I modeled out with 1% growth per year thereafter and you get 82.5M and change by the dawn of the 22nd Century.
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They also have low growth and high growth scenarios, which betray the rather made-up nature of the thing showing a range of 47M at the low end (just a bit less than 6M above current levels) all the way to 87M; the latter of which would model out (at 1% annualized growth post 2073) to ~114M in the year 2100.
Source:
The Daily — Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2023 to 2073
Since the last edition of Statistics Canada's population projections for Canada, the provinces and territories, published in 2022, Canadian demographics have changed significantly, and according to the new series of projections released today by the organization, Canada could have 63 million...www150.statcan.gc.ca
afransen
Senior Member
0% unemployment has never and will never happen. It's basically mathematically impossible.
Northern Light
Superstar
Of course, but in @lenaitch 's defense I don't think that was the serious argument, it was the exaggerated one.
The essential argument being is there an acute labour shortage domestically in most of the sectors, if a proper wage is provided? I think we can safely say the answer is no.
Construction is really the only segment of significance where one might argue differently. (Farm workers excluded as that is a long-standing norm, for better or worse)
Put simply, there are people willing to fill most of those jobs domestically, if you simply pay them a half decent wage.
afransen
Senior Member
I'm skeptical we don't have enough fast food workers and retail clerks. If we're finding we need to import people to work these jobs, it's likely an argument for higher min wage/allowing pay to rise. Of course, that can be inflationary. So can allowing population growth of 3% without any increase in home construction.
I know a company that uses TFW in material numbers for reasonably well-paid positions (well above min wage) in a region with historical labour shortages but an industry one might be surprised to see TFW. I think the impetus for TFW carried over from hotter economic conditions. I'm of two minds on the immigration front. I don't mind immigration, but preferred it under the points system where reasonably qualified people were admitted, We need to have growth in line with the ability economy to absorb it from an infrastructure standpoint.
TFW in agriculture and perhaps some resource extraction seems reasonable, as many rural areas are hollowed out of young workers and generally Canadians won't take these jobs unless the pay is so high as to make these businesses uneconomic.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Conservatives win Toronto-St. Paul's byelection in big upset over Liberals
Conservative candidate Don Stewart pulled off the upset, with 100 per cent of polls reporting his victory (42.1 per cent of the vote).
toronto.citynews.ca
The last time a conservative won here was 1988. More than a few heads should be rolling on this.....
Richard White
Senior Member
Conservatives win Toronto-St. Paul's byelection in big upset over Liberals
Conservative candidate Don Stewart pulled off the upset, with 100 per cent of polls reporting his victory (42.1 per cent of the vote).
The last time a conservative won here was 1988. More than a few heads should be rolling on this.....
As much as we would like it I don't see JT stepping down.
The Liberals are stubborn and I can see then staying the course.
They will claim that despite this setback they are well positioned to take on the Conservatives based on their record.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I'll take that bet. I think he resigns this summer so he can walk away undefeated. I don't think he cares that much about the party.
Richard White
Senior Member
The one thing I can say about the LPC is that they are all about their public image and talking points.
In the 2015 Election, Bill Blair asked for questions to be submitted in advance at an all candidates meeting.
They wanted to vet and approve any questions being asked before the meeting. They also asked to refuse any questions they didn't feel added to the meeting.
Realistically, they wanted to formulate talking points to make themselves look good.
Suffice to say the NDP refused and Blair didn't attend.
Northern Light
Superstar
Conservatives win Toronto-St. Paul's byelection in big upset over Liberals
Conservative candidate Don Stewart pulled off the upset, with 100 per cent of polls reporting his victory (42.1 per cent of the vote).
The last time a conservative won here was 1988. More than a few heads should be rolling on this.....
The vote counting wasn't final til the middle of the night.........84 names on the ballot........but really only the top 4 would peak our collective interest:
Certainly an upset as compared to most calls.
Of note, voter turnout was not good, but not utterly abysmal by by-election standards: (just over 43%), that, I think, makes this a bit more representative of a future general election than it might otherwise be.
For those who were unawares, Ms. Church, the Liberal Candidate was Chrystia Freelands's Chief of Staff.
The most notable thing about Mr. Stewart (the winner and Conservative candidate was a complete refusal to do any interviews)
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Agreed. Plus the LPC needs time to find and develop a new leader. They don't want a Kim Campbell type parachuted in a few months before an election, only to see the party destroyed. Nor do they want Trudeau to on hang on like Mother Wynne here in Ontario, forging ahead even though they know they're dragging their party into a loss.
This. I expect there's a notion in Trudeau's head akin to exclaim: "F#ck em all! They only wanted me for nostalgic name recognition after those fools Dion and Ignatieff couldn't get sh#t right; these fair weather, disloyal, conniving bastards have cost me my marriage and family. I quit. Let's see how Dominic, François-Philippe, Anita, Chrystia and the entire pile can do without me! F#ck them all! Well, before I go I might as well take my shot at Mélanie or Katie, or both, hmm.... let me call my soon to be unemployed friend Macron for some pointers on scoring with the ladies. While I'm at it, better call Barack to see if he can find me a job somewheres at the UN, World Bank, IMF or maybe NATO. F#ck you Canada, Salut.!"
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evandyk
Senior Member
There was a campaign out there to get as many people as possible to run in the riding to protest the Liberals' refusal to seriously work for electoral reform despite their election promise in 2015. My cousin got two votes.
Long ballot activists planning to make short work of Toronto byelection
The Longest Ballot Committee's goal is to remind people of Justin Trudeau's broken promise to do away with first-past-the-post elections.
nationalpost.com
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Electoral reform and balancing the budget by 2019 were the two reasons I voted Liberal in 2015. And Covid showed us soon after why it's important to balance your books and pay down your debt in good times, so that you can better weather the rough times. To me, electoral reform was even more important. Here in Toronto Centre where I sit, if you don't vote NDP or Liberal, your vote is usually wasted - though after St. Paul's I might question that thinking. While I recognise that Trudeau's proposal was of a different sort, if we had Australia-like ranked ballots, every vote would count. Here's the Australian system in a nutshell, and I don't see why this wouldn't work just as well in Canada.
evandyk
Senior Member
That was a major promise for me too, and I thought it was probably going to be our best shot in a generation at accomplishing something. I could live with it if they had seriously tried and ran up against too much opposition to make it happen but they never really bothered to try.
I haven't actually voted Liberal in an election since then. I've mostly voted Green and maybe once or twice NDP.
I haven't actually voted Liberal in an election since then. I've mostly voted Green and maybe once or twice NDP.
goreckm
Active Member
The two hilarious things about this are:
1. The liberals would likely have benefited the most from this, as NDP voters would likely have libs as second choice, same with conservative voters (or 3rd choice now with the PPC i guess).
2. Their thinking at the time is that it would create fringe parties with extremist views, well, instead we're going to get extremists taking over the large parties, and gaining power just because people need a way to tell the currently ruling party to take a hike, even if they don't support all the policies.