PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[Richard White]

It will be interesting to see what the LPC becomes once Trudeau has been defeated. Do they return to the era of perennial losers of the likes of Martin, Ignatieff and Dion while the Cons ride this disarray to repeat a Harper-like decade's rule?

Is there anyone from Quebec, and it must be a Quebecer (sorry Freeland, Anand, LeBlanc, Carney, Nenshi, etc.), who can take over the LPC after its coming defeat? The Quebecers are pretty thin on PM material, here's all 34 Quebec MPs.

Maybe Champagne? If he's not given the lead he might bounce.

Quebec Liberals want Champagne for the provincial leadership—and he's not ruling it out

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne’s name generates the ‘most interest and enthusiasm’ amongst Quebec Liberals for the provincial party’s top job, says a top Quebec Liberal Party source.

www.hilltimes.com

This is what I believe will be the downfall of the LPC. The idea that the head of the LPC MUST be from Quebec really limits themselves.

There are plenty of candidates but the idea we have to bend over backwards for Quebec is absurd.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ That's the summary.

The full policy is here:

Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence - Canada.ca

A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence

www.canada.ca

 

[kEiThZ]

This is what I believe will be the downfall of the LPC. The idea that the head of the LPC MUST be from Quebec really limits themselves.

There are plenty of candidates but the idea we have to bend over backwards for Quebec is absurd.

It's a reality of politics. The Liberals never win with party leaders from outside Quebec. This is a problem of both the party and the electorate. With the CPC having a lock on a lot of rural and Western ridings, the only way the Liberals can win is urban areas, suburbs and Quebec.

 

[Richard White]

It's a reality of politics. The Liberals never win with party leaders from outside Quebec. This is a problem of both the party and the electorate. With the CPC having a lock on a lot of rural and Western ridings, the only way the Liberals can win is urban areas, suburbs and Quebec.

For once I would love to see the LPC write a blank cheque to the western provinces like Alberta.

If they took a page from the CPC Book and gave them everything they asked for, it would not give the CPC a leg to stand on.

 

[kEiThZ]

For once I would love to see the LPC write a blank cheque to the western provinces like Alberta.

If they took a page from the CPC Book and gave them everything they asked for, it would not give the CPC a leg to stand on.

How exactly would they do this when cores values and interests clash. For example, the two provinces with plenty of hydro (BC and Quebec) strongly support climate policy. Alberta and Saskatchewan see any climate policy as a direct threat to their economies. How do you suggest the LPC reconcile that?

This is honestly why I've said they should have done more things with infrastructure where they can win credit. If they built HxR between Calgary and Edmonton it might have won them some credit, even if they didn't win a ton of seats. It at least shows they care about the region. The cheques they cut to individuals just don't have the same symbolic impact.

 

[Richard White]

For example, the two provinces with plenty of hydro (BC and Quebec) strongly support climate policy. Alberta and Saskatchewan see any climate policy as a direct threat to their economies. How do you suggest the LPC reconcile that?

Build refineries in the west with a trans-canada pipeline. In BC and Quebec, support the building of green infrastructure like wind, solar and hydro-electric.

It brings the overall cost of gasoline down across the country thereby reducing inflation.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The cheques they cut to individuals just don't have the same symbolic impact.

My two university aged kids both get hundreds of climate dollars from Trudeau when neither pay any income tax, neither drive nor pay for groceries, gas, heating fuel, etc.. They laugh that they get their Justin bucks, but neither will connect it with policy nor consider it when they vote in 2025.

 

[kEiThZ]

Build refineries in the west with a trans-canada pipeline. In BC and Quebec, support the building of green infrastructure like wind, solar and hydro-electric.

It brings the overall cost of gasoline down across the country thereby reducing inflation.

1) Canada doesn't need more refineries. Demand for refined petroleum products isn't really growing.

2) Where are those pipelines going to go? Have you missed all the opposition to pipelines, particularly in BC and Quebec? They are finishing TMC and Coastal Gaslink. Beyond that it's quite difficult.

3) It's not a lack of refining capacity that is driving up your cost at the pump. It's there global price of oil and carbon pricing (which we get rebates for). Gas would be 20¢/L cheaper at the pump without carbon pricing. And another 11-12¢ if the price of oil dropped $15/bbl.

 

[Richard White]

1) Canada doesn't need more refineries. Demand for refined petroleum products isn't really growing.

2) Where are those pipelines going to go? Have you missed all the opposition to pipelines, particularly in BC and Quebec? They are finishing TMC and Coastal Gaslink. Beyond that it's quite difficult.

3) It's not a lack of refining capacity that is driving up your cost at the pump. It's there global price of oil and carbon pricing (which we get rebates for). Gas would be 20¢/L cheaper at the pump without carbon pricing. And another 11-12¢ if the price of oil dropped $15/bbl.

I guess I was just thinking more along the lines of Petro-Canada before the government sold it off.

I was under the impression most of our oil refineries were south of the border.

 

[kEiThZ]

My two university aged kids both get hundreds of climate dollars from Trudeau when neither pay any income tax, neither drive nor pay for groceries, gas, heating fuel, etc.. They laugh that they get their allowance from Justin, but neither connect their Justin bucks with policy or will consider it when they vote in 2025.

The fee and rebate scheme is not a bad policy. The government assumes that your adult children have adult expenses. They can't really design policy around parents who subsidize adult kids. For minors, their rebates are paid to the paid parents who presumably are covering the costs.

 

[Northern Light]

I was under the impression most of our oil refineries were south of the border.

A great deal of the oil taken out of the ground in Alberta is indeed refined in the U.S.; though some is refined domestically.

The absence of greater domestic refining capacity does have some impacts, but not so much on the supply/demand side of the equation.

Rather its that the value-add of refining accrues to U.S. based companies, along with the associated employment.

While there may be value in repatriating that @kEiThZ correctly notes that this is not a growth sector overall, and adding refining capacity at a productive, competitive level is multi-billion dollar commitment so one wants to be judicious w/investments such as those.

There is some strategic value in repatriation, in theory, but that is dependent on our willingness and ability to grow exports to non-U.S. interests and our ability to do so at globally competitive prices.

Given that require pipelines, tanker traffic, the politics also factor into the equation beyond mere dollars.

 

[kEiThZ]

Offered below w/o comment as this isn't an area of high expertise for me, as such I will leave the insight to others.

It's very reminiscent of what they did with HFR. Nothing for a long time. Then token definition funding with promises of a megaproject at some undefined point in the future (which is what 20 years here effectively is). And then even the current design contract for HFR is being slow walked and they'll need several more years before a construction contract. Kinda the same deal here. They are actually spending $8B over 4 years. That's the real new money. The rest is basically a vague shopping list for the next two decades.

But, I guess it's a start that they are actually making shopping lists. The commitment to have regular integrated foreign and defence policy reviews every 4 years is a welcome move towards being a grown up country.

 

[lenaitch]

3) It's not a lack of refining capacity that is driving up your cost at the pump. It's there global price of oil and carbon pricing (which we get rebates for). Gas would be 20¢/L cheaper at the pump without carbon pricing. And another 11-12¢ if the price of oil dropped $15/bbl.

Also the value of our dollar vs. USD.

I guess I was just thinking more along the lines of Petro-Canada before the government sold it off.

I was under the impression most of our oil refineries were south of the border.

Canadian Refineries F.A.Q. - 7 Questions & Answers

Want to know more about refineries in Canada? We answer several common questions people have about Canadian refineries in detail + with infographics!

www.canadaaction.ca

 

[lenaitch]

It's very reminiscent of what they did with HFR. Nothing for a long time. Then token definition funding with promises of a megaproject at some undefined point in the future (which is what 20 years here effectively is). And then even the current design contract for HFR is being slow walked and they'll need several more years before a construction contract. Kinda the same deal here. They are actually spending $8B over 4 years. That's the real new money. The rest is basically a vague shopping list for the next two decades.

But, I guess it's a start that they are actually making shopping lists. The commitment to have regular integrated foreign and defence policy reviews every 4 years is a welcome move towards being a grown up country.

A lot of the policy is recycled from various policy statements and papers of various colours ('improve procurement, streamline recruiting) and sounds so much like bureaucracy-speak.

A commitment (however vague) to improve military housing is a good step. No mention of healthcare for families is disappointing.

I wonder how much they figure they can wring out of the Halifax-class frigates? They've been sailed like rented mules and the newest hull is 28 years old.

It almost sounds like they are considering keeping MV Asterix (or its proposed sister) after the two JSSs are launched.

The one time that might cause many to scratch their heads is the statement: "We will explore options for enabling our Arctic and Offshore Patrol Vessels to embark and operate our maritime helicopters at sea." From what I understand, they were designed to handle them but not include them as a sailing component, which has a significant impact on weight/balance, crew space, shop space, etc. Even at that, I am hearing that the class has not yet been certified for any helicopter operations (although I don't know if that is just the Cyclone or all rotary).

 

[kEiThZ]

A lot of the policy is recycled from various policy statements and papers of various colours ('improve procurement, streamline recruiting) and sounds so much like bureaucracy-speak.

I am genuinely curious to see if we get into AUKUS. Forcing DND to still eat a $1B cut this year. Then apparently they are going to fund $8 over the 4 years after that. So basically, "If you re-elect us, we promise the CAF won't end up terminal in the death spiral that our own Deputy Ministers keep talking about."

The stand out commitment is the creation of a new Cyber Command along with recent AI funding seems targeted at getting us a seat at the table.

In the presser, Trudeau wouldn't rule out nuclear submarines when asked. I thought that was odd, given their policy shows no hint of ambition to ever spend that much.

A commitment (however vague) to improve military housing is a good step.

The annex shows them spending a whopping $1M on housing....three years from now. I can only hope this part of some broader study. It won't change anything for anybody right now. But I hope the kids who follow me will actually have an easier time with housing.

No mention of healthcare for families is disappointing.

But not surprising. For all the progressive talk about getting more women and minorities in the military, they never seem to grasp that people come with families.

I wonder how much they figure they can wring out of the Halifax-class frigates? They've been sailed like rented mules and the newest hull is 28 years old.

It almost sounds like they are considering keeping MV Asterix (or its proposed sister) after the two JSSs are launched.

This is the realization setting in that all their talk about the Arctic is hollow and now that we risk an organizational collapse of the RCN, with the new frigates a long way off, they have to do something immediately to stop the collapse. The RCN may just start pulling boats out of service. Or the government orders the RCN to accept the risk and then risks real political problems if they have an accident and somebody gets killed.

The more I read this, the more I feel like they mailed it in. It's a rather weak document for something that is supposed to sum up 2 years of work. Feels like they put out something because they had to. And now if the CPC says they'll meet 2%, the LPC can argue we can't afford it and then pivot to fearmongering over healthcare, school lunches, etc. This doesn't really read like genuinely serious policy.

The only part that I genuinely like is the commitment to 4 year reviews. This is the kind of adulting real countries do. Hopefully the next government sticks to the schedule after they reboot this one.