Plans to fill in Allen Road

[DonValleyRainbow]

Correct we can champion lrts and drl. And make decisions to live close to transit

There has been market research that overwhelmingly points to a desire for people to live in dwellings close to rapid transit that was released sometime in the fall last year, IIRC.

But the culture war between low-density suburban living and medium/high density redevelopment rages on. Lobbyists for developers, that historically benefited from converting farm lands into sprawling suburban subdivisions, have been throwing potshots at the Greenbelt, the land use legislation that will encourage densification, and set the stage for efficient rapid transit. Then, as Lone Primate pointed out, there has been a deathly halt in rapid transit building (all three levels of governments share the blame for that), and this has pushed us to a point of deathly congestion, and situations where transit is too slow, crowded and uncomfortable for a car. And on top of it all, amalgamation. The death of Metro Toronto has ensured that proper infrastructure planning is morphed into an endless political fight, and gives relevance to the most extreme partisans.

So the gap between what we want and need, and what we actually get, is a canyon. This culture war is preventing us from closing that gap.

 

[BMO]

There has been market research that overwhelmingly points to a desire for people to live in dwellings close to rapid transit that was released sometime in the fall last year, IIRC.

But the culture war between low-density suburban living and medium/high density redevelopment rages on. Lobbyists for developers, that historically benefited from converting farm lands into sprawling suburban subdivisions, have been throwing potshots at the Greenbelt, the land use legislation that will encourage densification, and set the stage for efficient rapid transit. Then, as Lone Primate pointed out, there has been a deathly halt in rapid transit building (all three levels of governments share the blame for that), and this has pushed us to a point of deathly congestion, and situations where transit is too slow, crowded and uncomfortable for a car. And on top of it all, amalgamation. The death of Metro Toronto has ensured that proper infrastructure planning is morphed into an endless political fight, and gives relevance to the most extreme partisans.

So the gap between what we want and need, and what we actually get, is a canyon. This culture war is preventing us from closing that gap.

More like the cost of living near decent transit in North America is prohibitive for the people who arguably need it the most.

 

[sixrings]

I was in York region the other day at Davis drive. And they are selling houses starting at 800k. This idea that people can't afford to live near the subway is plain wrong. People just want twice the square footage. That is the real reason they move to suburbia. It's not that they cannot afford it. It's that they want bigger bang for the buck. This is why I'm all for tolls. To discourage this by making it cost more to live in suburbia.

 

[wopchop]

Or it's more complicated than that. Not everyone in Newmarket, or similar towns, works in the downtown core. Without looking, I bet it's not even close to a fifth of the commuters of Newmarket. Why would someone buy a house near a subway station if the grew up in Newmarket and their job is near the Airport, or Markham, or wherever that isn't Toronto?

People on this forum love to simplify what is actually a really complicated issue. Cost of living is a big part of it, but perhaps an even bigger part is that huge percentages of people living in Mississauga, Brampton, Richmond Hill, Markham, Pickering, Oshawa, etc. are not commuting to jobs downtown. Here's a good article on the subject. If you read it, you can see that "13 out of 100 persons traveling to work in the GTA and Hamilton end up in downtown Toronto". Thirteen percent. The current transit system very poorly serves everyone who is not one of those people. So they drive. For instance, for someone living in Halton or Western Mississisauga, it can take 1.5-2.0 hours on a bus to a job in the airport area, or 30-40 minutes to drive. Who would choose the bus? Those with no choice, basically.

The article also gives us a great insight. 905ers, at a ratio of 3 to 1, choose the GO Train to travel downtown. So it's not that those satan worshipping surbanites hate transit, as they obviously will use it when it is logical, practical, cost-effective and competitive. The true challenge of GTA transit planning is trying to serve the huge numbers of suburban commuters that aren't heading to the downtown core, and likely never will be.

 

[wopchop]

And sure, there are probably homes selling for $800k in Newmarket. As there are homes selling for $800k everywhere. But that's not important. The average and median price is important.

According to this article, the 2015 average selling price of a detached house in Toronto is $1.052 million and $738k in the 905. The average sale price of a condo is $418k in Toronto and $324k in the 905. Townhomes are selling for an average of $539k in Toronto and $459k in the 905. Semis are going for $761k in Toronto and $496k in the 905.

Clearly, there are some stark differences in price.

Saying that affordability doesn't enter the equation is silly.

 

[sixrings]

It is just my own personal experience but I know too many people who bought in Brampton Caledon barrie or Whitby who work downtown. Then once they are out there they complain about congestion or lack of transit. In reality getting around via transit or car was way down their priority list when buying. I find it difficult to have sympathy for their commuting which in Toronto they should have known was going to be hellish. But hey what do I know. I bought 1000sq ft for the price of 3000 905 Sq ft.

 

[wopchop]

Anecdotal experience is just that, anecdotal. The fact of the matter is that the statistics show that the majority of people who are commuting downtown from the 905 (74%, in fact), choose to to commute via transit. Sure, you might know such people, and I do too, but they are a minority. In fact, contrary to what you are saying, thousands upon thousands of 905 commuters love using transit to head downtown.

But, and this is important, according to the study, only 13 out of every 100 GTHA commuting trips are heading downtown. The majority (32 out of every 100) are headed to 416 destinations that are not downtown. Try commuting via transit from a 905 region to somewhere in Toronto that isn't downtown, and you will quickly see why transit is not favoured.

Here is a quote from the article, and an interesting finding of the study to ponder;

Of the more than 80,000 morning rush-hour auto trips into downtown Toronto each day, 53,000 originate inside Toronto; York and Peel contribute fewer than 10,000 each; Durham, 4,558; Halton, 3,134; and Hamilton, 498.

 

[BMO]

I was in York region the other day at Davis drive. And they are selling houses starting at 800k. This idea that people can't afford to live near the subway is plain wrong. People just want twice the square footage. That is the real reason they move to suburbia. It's not that they cannot afford it. It's that they want bigger bang for the buck. This is why I'm all for tolls. To discourage this by making it cost more to live in suburbia.

Or it's more complicated than that. Not everyone in Newmarket, or similar towns, works in the downtown core. Without looking, I bet it's not even close to a fifth of the commuters of Newmarket. Why would someone buy a house near a subway station if the grew up in Newmarket and their job is near the Airport, or Markham, or wherever that isn't Toronto?

People on this forum love to simplify what is actually a really complicated issue. Cost of living is a big part of it, but perhaps an even bigger part is that huge percentages of people living in Mississauga, Brampton, Richmond Hill, Markham, Pickering, Oshawa, etc. are not commuting to jobs downtown. Here's a good article on the subject. If you read it, you can see that "13 out of 100 persons traveling to work in the GTA and Hamilton end up in downtown Toronto". Thirteen percent. The current transit system very poorly serves everyone who is not one of those people. So they drive. For instance, for someone living in Halton or Western Mississisauga, it can take 1.5-2.0 hours on a bus to a job in the airport area, or 30-40 minutes to drive. Who would choose the bus? Those with no choice, basically.

The article also gives us a great insight. 905ers, at a ratio of 3 to 1, choose the GO Train to travel downtown. So it's not that those satan worshipping surbanites hate transit, as they obviously will use it when it is logical, practical, cost-effective and competitive. The true challenge of GTA transit planning is trying to serve the huge numbers of suburban commuters that aren't heading to the downtown core, and likely never will be.

What you're saying definitely has merit but I think Toronto is quickly changing into a bedroom community where people quite simply want to live near downtown because that's where all the FUN is and where everything is happening. I know quite a few friends who are now working in Markham and Richmond Hill who are purchasing units by the harbourfront and close to rapid transit downtown. They don't want to take their cars to go out and they don't want to drive for an hour after an outing to get back home.

It's still exacerbating the issue, that people with decent paying jobs are soaking up all the land/ housing near rapid transit. The only places we really don't see as much of an uptick in higher-income by transit lines is mainly along the Allen Rd section of the YUS line. And guess why that is? Because of the Highway that divides the rich from the poor. And even here you still see an insane uptick in prices on the east side of the Allen BECAUSE of the subway.

I really don't know what the answer is to all of this. People are finding their own answers by choosing to drive further or commuting longer, but there's a limit. It's true people want the bigger houses in the suburbs but it's also an issue of inadequate new housing supply close to rapid transit that's geared towards families. I spent the last year searching for an apartment, always looking for 2 bedrooms and the value per square footage when you included maintenance fees just did NOT make sense for any family to buy. One thing is take a hit on square footage but another is to stick 3 to 4 people in a 700-800 sqft unit for $800K. Anything over 800 sqft was insanely priced because there just isn't enough stock in the market and there's VERY little stock being added. The development industry has been completely ignorant of the fact that just because people can't afford a house doesn't mean they want to settle for a tiny box in the sky.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Or it's more complicated than that. Not everyone in Newmarket, or similar towns, works in the downtown core. Without looking, I bet it's not even close to a fifth of the commuters of Newmarket. Why would someone buy a house near a subway station if the grew up in Newmarket and their job is near the Airport, or Markham, or wherever that isn't Toronto?

People on this forum love to simplify what is actually a really complicated issue. Cost of living is a big part of it, but perhaps an even bigger part is that huge percentages of people living in Mississauga, Brampton, Richmond Hill, Markham, Pickering, Oshawa, etc. are not commuting to jobs downtown. Here's a good article on the subject. If you read it, you can see that "13 out of 100 persons traveling to work in the GTA and Hamilton end up in downtown Toronto". Thirteen percent. The current transit system very poorly serves everyone who is not one of those people. So they drive. For instance, for someone living in Halton or Western Mississisauga, it can take 1.5-2.0 hours on a bus to a job in the airport area, or 30-40 minutes to drive. Who would choose the bus? Those with no choice, basically.

The article also gives us a great insight. 905ers, at a ratio of 3 to 1, choose the GO Train to travel downtown. So it's not that those satan worshipping surbanites hate transit, as they obviously will use it when it is logical, practical, cost-effective and competitive. The true challenge of GTA transit planning is trying to serve the huge numbers of suburban commuters that aren't heading to the downtown core, and likely never will be.

I really don't know what the answer is to all of this. People are finding their own answers by choosing to drive further or commuting longer, but there's a limit. It's true people want the bigger houses in the suburbs but it's also an issue of inadequate new housing supply close to rapid transit that's geared towards families. I spent the last year searching for an apartment, always looking for 2 bedrooms and the value per square footage when you included maintenance fees just did NOT make sense for any family to buy. One thing is take a hit on square footage but another is to stick 3 to 4 people in a 700-800 sqft unit for $800K. Anything over 800 sqft was insanely priced because there just isn't enough stock in the market and there's VERY little stock being added. The development industry has been completely ignorant of the fact that just because people can't afford a house doesn't mean they want to settle for a tiny box in the sky.

So let us apply that back to Allen Road itself, and the options on the table. You have a corridor that has a subway on it. Do you:

1. Spend billions of dollars building a tunnel to the Gardiner, implementing a limited number of interchanges with local roads that are already slow and congested; or
2. Spend billions of dollars building more transit that can improve connectivity along the University line, and improve transit speed and access for multiple communities and workplaces, regardless of density, form and location.

When I look at it, I see nothing but negative impacts and ineffective movement of people for #1. For #2, I see an effective option that will, on top of it all, provides us the opportunity to remove the Allen and create a bunch of new housing stock and other mixed-use space within the vicinity of transit. The opportunity for new housing stock will also be extended to the other parts of the city that are now in closer vicinity to rapid transit.

My point on the culture war is that it is a product of ideological politics. I'm also not trying to pretend that all of our transportation have a simple answer. But when it comes to Allen Road, it does seem simple that the most effective solution is removing it.

 

[sixrings]

What are the stats of people living in 905 and commuting to work at 416 suburbs. For instance people living in barrie and commuting to rexdale. Or from mississauga to yonge and Shepherd.

Suburb to suburb commuting is frequent and next to impossible to solve by transit.

What I am suggesting is that if people lived in a more central area the jobs would follow. But because one can buy bigger by living further the population spreads out and so does the jobs. Which makes it hard to make infrastructure to meet the commuting demands of both drivers and transit.

A Drl not only helps more people but it would encourage more dense living.

 

[wopchop]

What are the stats of people living in 905 and commuting to work at 416 suburbs. For instance people living in barrie and commuting to rexdale. Or from mississauga to yonge and Shepherd.

The stats were in the article. 32 out of every 100 commuting trips in the GTHA are heading to 416 destinations that are not downtown destinations.

 

[AlbertHWagstaff]

What are the stats of people living in 905 and commuting to work at 416 suburbs. For instance people living in barrie and commuting to rexdale. Or from mississauga to yonge and Shepherd.

Suburb to suburb commuting is frequent and next to impossible to solve by transit.

What I am suggesting is that if people lived in a more central area the jobs would follow. But because one can buy bigger by living further the population spreads out and so does the jobs. Which makes it hard to make infrastructure to meet the commuting demands of both drivers and transit.

A Drl not only helps more people but it would encourage more dense living.

Metro Toronto's policy in the 1970s-1980s to decentralize jobs to the suburbs created the intial city centre hubs, and the commercial concentration tax of the early 1990s that put additional taxes on the core buildings made office parks in the exurbs more cost effective. The high cost of space in the downtown pushed jobs out to the periphery so now not only is there suburb to suburb commuting, but core to suburb commuting. There are probably quite a lot of people commuting from the 905 suburbs to jobs at North York Centre and Scarborough Centre while there are probably also a lot of downtown people commuting to the Airport Corporate Centre and 404/Steeles and 404/7 corporate centres among others. Denser housing in the city helps people who want to work in the city and don't want excessively long driving commutes, but what might be a reasonable driving commute through nearby suburbs is usually an inconvenient and long transit commute. Even with the Eglinton Crosstown, you could live right by Eglinton & Allen and still have a long transit commute to get to the Airport Corporate Centre area.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Metro Toronto's policy in the 1970s-1980s to decentralize jobs to the suburbs created the intial city centre hubs, and the commercial concentration tax of the early 1990s that put additional taxes on the core buildings made office parks in the exurbs more cost effective. The high cost of space in the downtown pushed jobs out to the periphery so now not only is there suburb to suburb commuting, but core to suburb commuting. There are probably quite a lot of people commuting from the 905 suburbs to jobs at North York Centre and Scarborough Centre while there are probably also a lot of downtown people commuting to the Airport Corporate Centre and 404/Steeles and 404/7 corporate centres among others. Denser housing in the city helps people who want to work in the city and don't want excessively long driving commutes, but what might be a reasonable driving commute through nearby suburbs is usually an inconvenient and long transit commute. Even with the Eglinton Crosstown, you could live right by Eglinton & Allen and still have a long transit commute to get to the Airport Corporate Centre area.

Counter-peak GO trains could be helpful in this regard. Unfortunately its 2015, and this kind of service is only available on the Lakeshore.

 

[robmausser]

Counter-peak GO trains could be helpful in this regard. Unfortunately its 2015, and this kind of service is only available on the Lakeshore.

Soon on the Kitchener Line! ...ish

 

[nfitz]

Soon on the Kitchener Line! ...ish

No indication when though. Could be years ...