MisterF
Senior Member
Well in a recent interview on CBC he seemed to think the line was owned by CN (it's CP) and that passenger service would go as far as Havelock like it used to (highly unlikely), so it wouldn't surprise me.
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Peterborough Commuter Rail
- Thread starter RedRocket191
- Start date
k10ery
Senior Member
Can someone tell me: if the numbers are anything like those Del Mastro so cleverly leaked, what is the point of doing the study? I mean, $150 million capital cost and 1,000 daily riders. Can't these politicians even freaking divide?
EnviroTO
Senior Member
I don't think that would be dividing by enough. Capital costs are long term investments. You would also need to divide by something like 240 business days a year, 15 years, and factor in growth in ridership. I would assume that since it is CPs line and some of the benefit would be shared there would also be some sharing of costs. Also I would suspect some of the work in that figure is part of what would be required to provide rush-hour service to Locust Hill (part of Metrolinx 15-year plan) so that portion could be paid for with a completely different budget. I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority of the costs in the Del Maestro study are costs which would be covered by the Locust Hill and Seaton GO projects since the costs of a fly-under to get across the CP mainline and getting past the CP yard is probably the most involved tasks. If it is assumed Locust Hill GO will go ahead then really isn't the capital cost required simply rail improvements beyond that point and minor station costs?
waterloowarrior
Senior Member
GO service set up for success... or not
http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1714227
Examiner point of view
Posted By PETERBOROUGH EXAMINER
Updated 4 hours ago
After nearly two decades of lobbying for a commuter-style transit connection to Toronto, Peterborough is about to find out whether the idea actually makes sense.
By that we mean sense from a dollars and cents perspective. Will enough riders turn up to keep the GO bus-train service from running too large an annual deficit? Or could it actually break even?
If ridership doesn’t make the grade and the line is losing the $1.3 million annually that GO officials projected when they called off service three years ago, it will mean Peterborough isn’t yet ready for a commuter line.
Metrolinx (which now operates the former GO service as well as all former municipal transit services in Toronto and area) should give the line two years before it makes that call.
During that period, the federal government should hold off on investing in a proposed rail service from Toronto to Peterborough. If a GO bus to Oshawa that hooks seamlessly into GO train service to Toronto can’t attract enough riders, a straight train route will probably get the same result.
If the bus-train line that begins Sept. 5 doesn’t pan out, it won’t be because Metrolinx scrimped on service.
Everything local riders could ask for appears to have been delivered. GO will have more morning departures and evening return trips than the competing Greyhound bus service. It will be 15 minutes faster than the bus on the early morning commuter runs, but a bit slower midday.
Price will be the other major determining factor. At $32.50 return, GO?will be less expensive than the bus. Regular commuters can pay $521 for a monthly pass ($382 for students, $325 for seniors). That will be a bargain for those who make at least 17 round trips a month.
Monthly pass sales will be watched with interest. The number will indicate whether there really is a Peterborough-Toronto commuter base – or whether those who live here and work there are ready to get out of their cars and take transit.
The popularity of a Peterborough-Oshawa monthly pass for $369 will also be an indicator of whether the service has a future. There are said to be 2,000 or more GM employees in the city and area. How many will ride GO?and then take a local Oshawa bus to work?
Convenience will be a factor for anyone who now drives to the?Oshawa GO?station and takes a train to Toronto. A ticket bought in Peterborough will take them all the way, and parking and traffic delays in Oshawa will end.
If GO can deliver the two-hour service it promises, the future could be promising.
http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1714227
Examiner point of view
Posted By PETERBOROUGH EXAMINER
Updated 4 hours ago
After nearly two decades of lobbying for a commuter-style transit connection to Toronto, Peterborough is about to find out whether the idea actually makes sense.
By that we mean sense from a dollars and cents perspective. Will enough riders turn up to keep the GO bus-train service from running too large an annual deficit? Or could it actually break even?
If ridership doesn’t make the grade and the line is losing the $1.3 million annually that GO officials projected when they called off service three years ago, it will mean Peterborough isn’t yet ready for a commuter line.
Metrolinx (which now operates the former GO service as well as all former municipal transit services in Toronto and area) should give the line two years before it makes that call.
During that period, the federal government should hold off on investing in a proposed rail service from Toronto to Peterborough. If a GO bus to Oshawa that hooks seamlessly into GO train service to Toronto can’t attract enough riders, a straight train route will probably get the same result.
If the bus-train line that begins Sept. 5 doesn’t pan out, it won’t be because Metrolinx scrimped on service.
Everything local riders could ask for appears to have been delivered. GO will have more morning departures and evening return trips than the competing Greyhound bus service. It will be 15 minutes faster than the bus on the early morning commuter runs, but a bit slower midday.
Price will be the other major determining factor. At $32.50 return, GO?will be less expensive than the bus. Regular commuters can pay $521 for a monthly pass ($382 for students, $325 for seniors). That will be a bargain for those who make at least 17 round trips a month.
Monthly pass sales will be watched with interest. The number will indicate whether there really is a Peterborough-Toronto commuter base – or whether those who live here and work there are ready to get out of their cars and take transit.
The popularity of a Peterborough-Oshawa monthly pass for $369 will also be an indicator of whether the service has a future. There are said to be 2,000 or more GM employees in the city and area. How many will ride GO?and then take a local Oshawa bus to work?
Convenience will be a factor for anyone who now drives to the?Oshawa GO?station and takes a train to Toronto. A ticket bought in Peterborough will take them all the way, and parking and traffic delays in Oshawa will end.
If GO can deliver the two-hour service it promises, the future could be promising.
RedRocket191
Senior Member
This is a fun newspaper article. I loved the factual and grammar errors. 
Swarley
Active Member
Apparently we all missed the news that Metrolinx operates the TTC now...
Second_in_pie
Senior Member
Yeah, that part was a bit weird. But I guess the basics should be right, right?
Twisted Son of Gumby
New Member
How many people who live in or around Peterborough work 9-5 Mon-Fri in Toronto? Just curious regarding any statistics on this...
waterloowarrior
Senior Member
here's the commuting flow data for those living in peterborough with usual places of work
Twisted Son of Gumby
New Member
^^ Wow, thanks for the info. That's quite a bit of number crunching to absorb right now, but from what I can interpret, I'm under the impression more than just a peak-period train service would be required in order to make a Peterborough-Toronto train even worth considering (i.e. maybe peak period with limited frequency off-peak? I dunno).
Dirk
New Member
Where did you get that info waterloowarrior? would be interesting to look at the people going to toronto from toronto for jobs in different parts of the golden horseshoe.
waterloowarrior
Senior Member
not sure if this link will work
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/cen...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=&S=1&O=D&A=R&PRID=0&GID=3515014
if not, search google for 'Commuting Flow Census Subdivisions: Sex (3) for the Employed Labour Force 15 Years and Over Having a Usual Place of Work of Census Subdivisions, Flows Greater than or Equal to 20, 2006 Census - 20% Sample Data' and you'll probably find something
edit: I should note that those are numbers from the census sudivision (lower or single tier municipality), not the CMA. City of Peterborough makes up about 2/3rds of its CMA population.
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Swarley
Active Member
Well that shows 545 people commuting into Toronto from Peterborough... enough said. Even if every one of them took GO, that's like... half of one train full of people.
Second_in_pie
Senior Member
Wow, that's a lot of people! I think that Peterborough could be a special place for commuter rail. Right now, it's a kinda indirect route to Peterborough from Toronto, but rail goes pretty much straight there. Compare that to Barrie and Waterloo, which both have 400-series highways going straight through them!
I think a lot of people looking at the ~3 hour drive from Peterborough will be more than happy to take a Go train, so a large number of those >20 000 commuters could potentially take the Go train. As I see it, this could be quite a good line for Go!
EDIT: Never mind, it turns out people actually work in Peterborough.
wow, that's pretty pathetic. Swarley's right, a train makes pretty much no sense at this point.
But those stats are pretty interesting. I assume that there's those kind of stats for basically every city in Canada?
I think a lot of people looking at the ~3 hour drive from Peterborough will be more than happy to take a Go train, so a large number of those >20 000 commuters could potentially take the Go train. As I see it, this could be quite a good line for Go!
EDIT: Never mind, it turns out people actually work in Peterborough.
wow, that's pretty pathetic. Swarley's right, a train makes pretty much no sense at this point.
But those stats are pretty interesting. I assume that there's those kind of stats for basically every city in Canada?
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TOareaFan
Superstar
Anyone know what the typical penetration is? 10% = 54 users......like you said the unrealistic 100% would still give you a number that makes no sense for commuter service!