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Peterborough Commuter Rail

Amazing that GO Transit will have to schedule it's rush hour trains at Union around a 3 car train carrying 20 people operated by a charity.
Metrolinx has already proposed providing peak-hour service on that line as far as Locust Hill in their 15-year plan (Big Move) and predicted a 2031 ridership of 5.0 million people per year, with a peak point of 2,000 pasengers; presumably service to Peterborough would simply extend one or two of these trains.

The 2031 demand is higher than any of the current GO Train lines, except Lakeshore and Milton.

There's a lot of things one can criticize with the proposed Peterborough service past Locust Hill - but the scheduling of slots into Union isn't one of them, assuming that operations were integrated with Metrolinx service to Locust Hill.

Presumably this train would also stop at Agincourt. Metrolinx also has suggested that instead of going into Union, that it could instead run into Summerhill.
 
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It never seemed like Peterborough was much of a priority for Metrolinx / GO Transit anyway, if only because it already has so much on its plate.
Surely, it's more likely because the passenger demand from Peterborough to Toronto was estimated to be only 100 passengers per day by VIA in 2008.

I don't know why one would think that putting in a service that's only going to draw so few passengers. $300-million for 100 passengers a day to Peterborough? In 30 years, it would cost the same as instead giving each passenger in Peterborough $400 every time they ride the train. Individual taxis for each passenger would be cheaper.

Sure, Metrolinx has forecast higher demands ... but that's to Toronto suburbs like Locust Hill and Agincourt where there is more people.

Perhaps this would make sense in the far future, if Peterborough has grown significantly; however unlike most rail routes, as soon as this line passes beyond Locust Hill it runs almost entirely in Green Belt most of the way to Peterborough, so there is little room for future growth.

The only reason this plan has any life at all is because it runs through the Finance Minister's riding - through Myrtle. Jim Flaherty should be ashamed of himself for such blatant pork barelling. Hopefully he'll have a bit more humility now that there are a few other GTA Conservative MPs asking why the only regional transit line that Ottawa wants to fund in Ontario is this one.
 
People should also look at the 2010 Metrolinx Report - http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/studies/Peterborough_Rail_Study.pdf

It reports that the total demand (including cars) from Peterborough to Downtown Toronto in 1996 was 150 people a day, and that grew to 230 in 2006. By 2031 this is forecast to shrink to 220 people! Now they do forecast 180 trips per day to other parts of the GTA growing to 560 trips in 2031; however the forecast transit demand for these trips is 0 (0% mode split).

It would appear that VIA's forecast of 100 passengers a day from Peterborough was highly optimistic; this study has 80 trips per day, dropping to 20 by 2031.

I'd certainly question some of the assumptions here ... but even if rail captures 100% of the market, there is no where near enough ridership to support the service much past Locust Hill.
 
Why does our political process generally deliver GTA transit expansion where it makes absolutely no economic sense, while at the same time failing to deliver transit expansion that we need? I'm thinking of the original Spadina subway, the Shepard line, and the Spadina extension in the former category, and DRL in the latter. The "hining Waters" (WTF?) line is the latest example. Our higher-level governments appear only willing to fund transit to country fields and vacant ex-urban lots, and they strip away so many tax dollars from Toronto that we can't afford to fund our own transit projects.
 
Local politicians think locally about topics they aren't experts about. Some have the sense to defer to experts, but those with less sense believe they are masters of a common sense that requires no education or complex analysis where something makes sense simply because it seems sensible to them.
 
Local politicians think locally about topics they aren't experts about. Some have the sense to defer to experts, but those with less sense believe they are masters of a common sense that requires no education or complex analysis where something makes sense simply because it seems sensible to them.

There is really nothing wrong with that.......local politicians should think of things that benefit their local area.....where the system falls down is when there is not a discipline at the provincial or federal level to say "really, rail to Peterborough.....are you having a laugh?"
 
The new track connection at Saines and Morningside in this plan looks like it will be a very tight squeeze. Any experts care to comment on if it is even possible to build without expropriating?
I've just had a quick look and it'd be tight, but doable depending on their design speed. As a rule of thumb, a 160m radius can provide 25 mph operating speeds. I couldn't get google to draw a circle, but a rough Google Map,http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=201682499563577751032.0004a6b666b338696862b, shows the two houses on the corner would impinge on the alignment. I'm not sure about the vertical alignment in the area at all though.
 
I'm thrilled this is happening and I'm sure it will be quite successful. It's pretty amazing that we're going to be seeing an entirely new railway line get passenger service. It's been quite a while since we could celebrate that. These passenger demand studies are utterly meaningless. They claimed that both Kitchener and Niagara would get minimal ridership and they routinely have to add extra buses due to overcrowding.

Not to mention, this project will include the complete rebuilding of the line to passenger rail standards, meaning that GO could choose to operate additional services along the line closer to the GTA to serve Scarborough, Cornell and the future Seaton development.
 
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Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge and St. Catharines/Niagara Falls are both much larger than Peterborough, and both are closer to Toronto. Also there are major intermediate cities along the rail lines between K-W/Niagara and Toronto: the railway to Niagara passes through Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville and Mississauga while the railway to Kitchener passes through Guelph and Brampton and the railway to Cambridge passes through Mississauga; commuting traffic to and from these intermediate cities often exceeds commuting to and from Toronto. In contrast, far fewer people commute from Peterborough from Toronto, and more people living in Peterborough commute to Durham Region which the railway does not serve. There is little economic justification for anything more than the existing bus service to Peterborough.
 
^If ridership is higher than projected on every other new line there's no reason to think it wouldn't be in Peterborough too. None of the things you pointed out change that.

The line should connect to the GO Lakeshore line in Durham Region, since there are 5 times as many commuters from Peterborough going there as there are to Toronto (IIRC). I doubt it would be much more expensive, if at all, than the current plan. Rail lines comparable to this are common all over the world.
 
Latest news

Latest article on rail to Peterborough:

Hudak sidesteps on committing to Peterborough-Toronto passenger rail
By BRENDAN WEDLEY, Examiner Staff Writer
Posted 2 days ago
Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak steered clear of making commitments to carry forward with the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail service and uploading social services costs from municipalities, in a telephone interview with The Examiner Thursday.

The Liberal government has committed $150 million toward establishing a Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail service. And it has committed to upload a further $553 million in costs for social programs and other services that were downloaded to municipalities by former premier Mike Harris¹s Progressive Conservative government.

Hudak sidestepped direct questions on those issues.

While he didn¹t mention the Peterborough-Toronto rail line, Hudak commented that the Progressive Conservative plan includes $35 billion for infrastructure.

“We’re absolutely committed to our share, which is $150 million, and I¹m shocked that Tim Hudak wouldn¹t commit to a railroad project that will have positive benefits for Peterborough riding.â€
Peterborough Liberal MPP Jeff Leal

"We're going to be investing in infrastructure priorities, primarily to help break gridlock and invest in our transportation systems," he said.

He said he would look at the best projects to move people faster and he would listen closely to the priorities of MPPs.

The Liberal government is committed to its share of the funding for the provincial-federal project to establish the commuter rail service, said Peterborough Liberal candidate Jeff Leal, who is seeking re-election to a third term.

"We're absolutely committed to our share, which is $150 million, and I¹m shocked that Tim Hudak wouldn¹t commit to a railroad project that will have positive benefits for Peterborough riding," he said.

Municipal leaders wanted to know if the Conservatives would maintain the current government's commitment to upload between 2012 and 2018 another $553 million in costs for social programs and other downloaded services.

Hudak didn't make that commitment when he spoke at the Association of Municipalities of Ontario conference last month. He avoided the issue Thursday.

The Conservatives would maintain the billion dollars in uploaded costs that the Liberals have already removed from the property tax base, Hudak said.

He said he would fix the provincial arbitration system that has been handing out contract awards for police and fire that are "far out of line with what Peterborough families can afford."

He said he would allow municipalities to use their provincial gas tax revenue on expenses other than transit.

"We'll put our faith in local leaders to make those decisions, not bureaucrats at Queen¹s Park," he said.

Hudak was in Peterborough Thursday for a rally at Peterborough Conservative candidate Alan Wilson's campaign office, but he didn¹t take questions from the media at the event. Instead, he made himself available for a telephone interview from his campaign bus before he arrived in Peterborough.

He touched on issues such as how the Conservatives would try to help create jobs, the Liberal plan for a $10,000 tax credit for employers that hire new Canadians, health care and his plan to take HST and the debt retirement charge off hydro and home heating bills.

Hudak wouldn¹t say when a Conservative government would finish the Hwy. 407 extension to Hwy. 35/115, but he pledged the project would be one of the top priorities for his transportation minister.

"The McGuinty Liberals dithered and delayed for years," he said.

The Liberal government originally planned to build the extension by 2013, but later revised the projected completion date for the connection with Hwy. 35/115 to 2020.

A Conservative government would cut income taxes for the middle class, Hudak said.

"We have an extensive jobs plan," he said, addressing the issue of the more than 10% unemployment rate in the Peterborough area. "We¹re going to put more money back into the pockets of Peterborough families so they have confidence to spend again and create jobs."
 
Can you explain why it would be tight? My folks live in the area. I can check it out.

Okay, if you load up the linked map, you will see two lines forming a junction. Let's call the track going from the bottom of the map to the top Track A. The other track, which curves into Track A we'll call Track B.

If you look at the most recent proposal, it calls for creating a new curve from Track B to Track A, in the opposite direction of the existing one. The purpose of this is to avoid the trains going through the rail yard east of here.

I think it would be difficult to build this new track without at least expropriating a few houses on Redhawk Rd and Maidenhair Ln.
 
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