This from The Economist's daily Newsletter of today is quite interesting.
On May 12th Mike DeWine, the state governor [of Ohio], announced the launch of the Vax-A-Million programme. Between May 26th and June 23rd individuals who received at least one dose of any covid-19 vaccine could opt into a lottery that would reward five with $1m each and five youths aged 12-17 with full scholarships to an Ohio public university of their choice. The initiative cost $5.6m. According to a new
study, it averted around $66m in healthcare costs.
Andrew Barber and Jeremy West of the University of California, Santa Cruz, set out to evaluate the success of Vax-A-Million against the hypothetical scenario in which Ohio hadn’t introduced any incentives. To do this the economists used a statistical method called synthetic control. By creating a weighted average of states that are similar to Ohio in various ways, such as in their rates of vaccine hesitancy, but did not implement a lottery, the authors created a control state—“synthetic Ohio”—to use as a point of comparison.
The researchers found that Vax-A-Million increased vaccination rates in Ohio by 1.5%, meaning that an additional 82,000 people received their first jab during the lottery period. The effects of this were seen in the state’s rate of infections and days spent in intensive-care units (ICU) receiving treatment for covid-19, which decreased by 1.3% and 2.6% respectively, compared with the synthetic Ohio. With the average hospital bill of a covid-19 patient in an American ICU clocking in at $13,500 per day, Ohio’s lottery programme managed to avoid $66m in hospital charges. That figure doesn’t include the additional social benefits of averted covid-19 cases, such as fewer people suffering from “
long covid” and fewer deaths.