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Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

I am not doubting that there will be a provincial lockdown. I am curious if the timing and all of the leaked details are accurate re schools, retail restrictions, duration, etc
 
If there is a province wide lockdown, it really shouldn’t come as any surprise. When numbers started to go back up a few months ago and the Province did nothing to properly address it, I figured a lockdown was inevitable. Also that it would have to be much longer than it should have been because of the inaction.
 
CP24 is now saying Boxing Day lock down ... so was Christmas Eve a trial balloon that just didn't fly?
 
The official news release is here:

Ontario Newsroom

news.ontario.ca news.ontario.ca

The info therein:
  • Restricting indoor organized public events and social gatherings, except with members of the same household (the people you live with). Individuals who live alone may consider having exclusive close contact with one other household.
  • Prohibiting in-person shopping in most retail settings - curbside pickup and delivery can continue. Discount and big box retailers selling groceries will be limited to 25 per cent capacity for in-store shopping. Supermarkets, grocery stores and similar stores that primarily sell food, as well as pharmacies, will continue to operate at 50 per cent capacity for in-store shopping.
  • Restricting indoor access to shopping malls - patrons may only go to a designated indoor pickup area (by appointment only), essential retail stores that are permitted to be open (e.g. pharmacy, grocery store), or, subject to physical distancing and face covering requirements, to the food court for takeout purchases. Shopping malls may also establish outdoor designated pickup areas.
  • Prohibiting indoor and outdoor dining. Restaurants, bars and other food or drink establishments will be permitted to operate by take out, drive-through, and delivery only.
In respect of schools:

Schools located in the following Public Health Unit regions can resume in-person instruction on January 11, 2021 for both elementary and secondary students:
  • The District of Algoma Health Unit
  • North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
  • Northwestern Health Unit
  • Porcupine Health Unit
  • Sudbury and District Health Unit
  • Thunder Bay District Health Unit
  • Timiskaming Health Unit
For schools in all other Public Health Unit regions, elementary school students are planned to be able to return to in-person learning on January 11, 2021, and secondary school students will continue learning remotely until January 25, 2021, at which point they may resume in-person learning. During this period, child care centres, authorized recreational and skill building programs and home-based child care services will remain open.

From January 4-8, 2021, when elementary students move to remote learning, before and after school programs will be closed and emergency child care for health care and frontline workers will be provided. As part of the government's efforts to protect the most vulnerable, boards will be required to make provisions for continued in-person support for students with special education needs who cannot be accommodated through remote learning for whom remote learning is challenging.


Ontario Small Business Support Grant :


Small businesses required to close or restrict services under the Province wide Shutdown will be able to apply for this one-time grant. Each small business will be able to use the support in whatever way makes the most sense for their individual business. For example, some businesses will need support paying employee wages or rent, while others will need support maintaining their inventory.


Eligible small businesses include those that:

  • Are required to close or significantly restrict services subject to the Province wide Shutdown effective 12:01 a.m. on December 26, 2020;
  • Have less than 100 employees at the enterprise level; and
  • Have experienced a minimum of 20 per cent revenue decline in April 2020 compared to April 2019.
Starting at $10,000 for all eligible businesses, the grant will provide businesses with dollar for dollar funding to a maximum of $20,000 to help cover decreased revenue expected as a result of the Provincewide Shutdown. The business must demonstrate they experienced a revenue decline of at least 20 per cent when comparing monthly revenue in April 2019 and April 2020. This time period was selected because it reflects the impact of the public health measures in spring 2020, and as such provides a representation of the possible impact of these latest measures on small businesses.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1340792347404197888

To summarise the threads in these Tweets: this UK mutation is not really new, it has simply now had time to exponentially increase to a panic point. How far it has spread is not known because most countries are simply identifying COVID, and not sequencing DNA like they are in the UK on a regular basis to identify the strain, however, it is very likely already spread everywhere in the world by last month.

Further to the above, it is implied as a possible explanation of the explosive growth of the virus in North America since October. Activities which were a low risk of transmission of the virus before this mutation arrived in North America suddenly became high risk. This is how it suddenly propagated so quickly despite relatively few changes in behaviour from July through September. Again, that is only a theory which happens to fit the facts, but there is some compelling evidence. It would also mean the flight ban from the UK is pointless. The mutation is already here and we are already living with it too.

The only thing to fact check here is how frequently Canada is sequencing the DNA of positive COVID tests. I don't know where to look for that information. But, I would be surprised if we are doing anywhere near 1,500 per day like is said to be done in Denmark.
 
Further to the list of what is open and closed:

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2020/12/21/1_5240344.html

Many international peers would not recognize this as a hard lockdown assuming this list is still current.

We’ll see how it goes but I doubt we will see a quick turnaround. I suspect it will be a grinding lateral hold pattern with a possible post holiday surge into a higher lateral hold pattern.
 
The "shutdown" is not nearly as stringent as the one we had last spring. It is essentially the same as the lockdown we have now in Toronto, which hasn't been that useful so far in making the number of cases actually come down. No closing of offices, no construction restrictions... and of course, implementing it after Christmas is just another sign that the government cares more about businesses than about people.
 
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