Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[Towered]

I'm challenged here, because I don't see the lockdowns, as practiced, making much difference; on the other hand, York's numbers are worse than Toronto's or Peel's per capita; so if you have a system, however flawed, it ought to be applied evenhandedly and logically, and that is clearly not the case.

To me this is a serious problem wherever one sits on the lockdown issue.

Any slight notion that Doug was handling the pandemic response early on better than expected has been gone for a long time now, and decisions like these just seal it.

If the Liberals had a leader with even a modicum of charisma, this bellend would justifiably be toast in 2022. Idiots.

 

[gabe]

Wait until January. It will be way, waaaay worse.

The U.S. Has Passed the Hospital Breaking Point
A new statistic shows that health-care workers are running out of space to treat COVID-19 patients.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...s-happening-hospitals-are-overwhelmed/617301/

 

[tiffer24]

Ontario reports record-high 1,859 COVID-19 cases with nearly 59,400 tests processed.

Most of the cases continue to be from the GTA, particularly the hot spots of Toronto and Peel Region.

“Locally, there are 504 new cases in Toronto, 463 in Peel and 198 in York Region. There are 1,624 more resolved cases,” Health Minister Christine Elliott tweeted.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-r...-with-nearly-59-400-tests-processed-1.5218545

 

[Rimsky44]

Here's a scary thought for the US. AMA did a study to see how many undetected cases of COVID was out there - depending on region, they estimate undetected cases were 6 to 24x more (https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/how-many-covid-19-cases-are-going-undetected).

Let's say hypothetically national average is 8 undetected for every detected case (which IMO is probably low vs actual) - i.e. 9 COVID cases for every 1 detected case.

1. Per day, US is detecting ~230k cases right now - including 8 undetected cases (230x9), that's ~2mm total cases per day (identified and estimated unidentified cases).
2. US identified total cases is ~14.4mm. Including 8 undetected cases (14.4x9), that's ~129mm infected (identified and unidentified)
3. US population is 330mm people. Assuming the ~129mm infected (from #2 above) is a reasonable estimation, there's ~200mm uninfected people.
4. Based on ~2mm infection/day estimate (from #1 above) and 200mm uninfected population (#3 above) that's 100 days to fully infect the entire US population (obviously assuming infection rate consistent over next 100 days and the remaining population can get infected easily)
5. So from this obviously oversimplified analysis, the US could 100% infected by end of March 2021. Of course we have zero idea if people can be reinfected (which it appears is possible) and how long anti-bodies last in the body (varies by individual).

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

BREAKING: York Region has avoided moving into #COVID19 lockdown. Stays in red zone. The only changes are Middlesex-London and Thunder Bay to the orange zone and Haliburton-Kawartha-Pine Ridge to yellow.

I'm challenged here, because I don't see the lockdowns, as practiced, making much difference; on the other hand, York's numbers are worse than Toronto's or Peel's per capita; so if you have a system, however flawed, it ought to be applied evenhandedly and logically, and that is clearly not the case.

To me this is a serious problem wherever one sits on the lockdown issue.

Frankly, I don't know how people in this region are expected to treat this lockdown seriously if York Region is not part of the lockdowns.

It's not a separate city from Peel and Toronto in practice, even if it is a separate jurisdiction.

 

[TrickyRicky]

Germany does seem to be holding at about 4 times first-wave peak in Cases.

The prairie provinces are a bit of a wild card because they are in such bad shape at the moment; however, this still looks instructive to estimate the crest of the second wave in Canada and Ontario. Roughly 8000 cases per day in Canada, 2000 cases per day in Ontario.

 

[W. K. Lis]

How long does it typically take for a vaccine to take effect? From link.

In general, it takes about two weeks after getting a vaccine for antibodies to develop in the body that protect against the diseases the vaccine is made to protect against.​

​

Most vaccines require more than one dose over time to produce immunity and long-lasting protection. The number of doses needed depends on the type of vaccine​

​

​

I would give myself a month after the second dose.

 

[gabe]

Ontario and Quebec break records again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1335603885982048258

https://twitter.com/x/status/1335256254537613312

 

[TrickyRicky]

Things are not getting better; however, the increase in cases is partly being driven by increases in testing, now approaching 60,000 tests a day in Ontario.

The rough antibody study showed actual cases in the spring first wave could have been about 4-times peak so this second-wave is probably just a but worst than the spring so far.

The difference is we shut-down creating a circuit breaker in the spring. That’s not going to happen this time. We are running our economy now at 95%. That’s why it’s vital vaccination starts soon because we need to add a new tool to suppress the pandemic’s impact on our hospital capacity.

Speaking of which I think they should seriously consider structurally increasing icu capacity. Covid-19 will not be eradicated, it will continue to exist globally and eventually mutate.

 

[cdr108]

Couldn't afford the $80 CAD for the business licence? Shouldn't start the business if didn't have $80 in his bank account.

I read that Adam Skully is a trust fund kid that comes from an affluent family.

I tried to find sources to confirm but surprisingly "Adam Skully" is a popular name & Google is full of current stories about his BBQ antics making the search more difficult.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I read that Adam Skully is a trust fund kid that comes from an affluent family.

I tried to find sources to confirm but surprisingly "Adam Skully" is a popular name & Google is full of current stories about his BBQ antics making the search more difficult.

Leaside is now cool, hip and happening - Leaside Life

When you think cool, hip and happening, Leaside may not be the first place that springs to mind. Ossington, Corktown, Distillery District, definitely. But Leaside? Yet that’s exactly where Leasider Adam Skelly chose to set ...more

leasidelife.com

AoD

 

[TrickyRicky]

Melbourne welcomes first international flight in five months as coronavirus curbs ease

Australians arriving from Sri Lanka will no longer be allowed to leave rooms under new hotel quarantine guidelines

www.theglobeandmail.com

Interesting to give a perspective of how different the Canadian and Australian pandemic experience is.

According to the article Melbourne was seeing its first international flight in 5 months.

About 20 to 25 thousand people enter Canada every day. In that 5 month period roughly 3-4 million people entered Canada. If we estimate infection rates at 25 per 100,000 easily 1000 people infected with Covid-19 entered Canada. All of these entries under voluntary quarantine and most under no quarantine order at all because they are part of supply chain logistics

 

[PinkLucy]

And yet only 2.1% from travel outside of Canada (Source: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html)

 

[Richard White]

Melbourne welcomes first international flight in five months as coronavirus curbs ease

Australians arriving from Sri Lanka will no longer be allowed to leave rooms under new hotel quarantine guidelines

www.theglobeandmail.com

Interesting to give a perspective of how different the Canadian and Australian pandemic experience is.

According to the article Melbourne was seeing its first international flight in 5 months.

About 20 to 25 thousand people enter Canada every day. In that 5 month period roughly 3-4 million people entered Canada. If we estimate infection rates at 25 per 100,000 easily 1000 people infected with Covid-19 entered Canada. All of these entries under voluntary quarantine and most under no quarantine order at all because they are part of supply chain logistics

I pine for the day when I can go to Australia. I'm waiting for the border to open and then it's off to Melbourne for a year.

 

[tiffer24]

Toronto Public Health hired Ipsos to get Toronto’s thoughts on COVID-19 response. (n=1,201; Oct 20-30) 83% support second lockdown; 90% agree with taking “whatever measures are necessary”; 58% disagree with notion lockdowns do more harm than good.