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Next Mayor of Toronto?

MetroMan said:
Ford camp on Twitter seems really confident that gap between Smitherman continues wide enough to guarantee election win. :(

I'm dying for good news here. This next poll needs to show Smitherman up, Ford down. Please please please.
Click to expand...

Ford Twitter spinners have been wrong before, and vice versa.

Edit: never mind Twitter. Independent polls not showing momentum for your candidate? No problem! Just release your own numbers through Sue-Ann Levy, without a margin of error, proportion of undecideds, or disclosure of method! But hey, it is 'scientific!'

http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontovotes2010/2010/10/09/15642411.html
 
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allabootmatt said:
Ford Twitter spinners have been wrong before, and vice versa.

Edit: never mind Twitter. Independent polls not showing momentum for your candidate? No problem! Just release your own numbers through Sue-Ann Levy, without a margin of error, proportion of undecideds, or disclosure of method! But hey, it is 'scientific!'

http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontovotes2010/2010/10/09/15642411.html
Click to expand...

Bah, its all a load of horseshit.. the Ford supporters are all out in the inner suburbs (if that) and even with that support, its just another replay of the 2003 election Miller vs Tory.. The demographic is very similar to this map, and as always, with the downtown support having higher density in numbers, still outweighs the Fordinites.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG

Downtown(Miller/Smitherman) = 43% vs inner burbs(Tory/Ford) = 38%

Just make sure you get out there and vote.
 
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Brans89 said:
I also think that Rocco Rossi's new found strength is going to eating away support from Rob Ford. Geogre Smitherman and Rocco Rossi are performing excellent in the debates, while Rob Ford has been terrible. I believe that people are starting to follow the election closer and these debates are game changers. Rob Ford is taking a beating in these debates and he is going to lose this election because of it.
Click to expand...

That's because Ford refuses to answer questions. I hate when politicians avoid answering a question but when Ford answers every single question with "stop the gravy train", it's twice as irritating. Who the hell votes for a guy who refuses to answer questions? TV commentators should not let politicians get away with that shit.
 
Yeah, #voteTO on Twitter is now officially over run with spam. It's now completely useless.

These bogus poll results scared me shitless until I realized they were fake:

Ford@65.9% - Pantalone@7.1% - Rossi @ 3% - Smitherman @ 24%
 
Torontovibe said:
That's because Ford refuses to answer questions. I hate when politicians avoid answering a question but when Ford answers every single question with "stop the gravy train", it's twice as irritating. Who the hell votes for a guy who refuses to answer questions? TV commentators should not let politicians get away with that shit.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's a refusal so much as inability. He only has a couple of set responses and can't think on his feet to come up with an answer the way most politicians can.
 
I think there's also a palpable fear throughout his camp about what hell might break loose should he ever deviate from his two talking points and actually speak his mind.
 
allabootmatt said:
Just release your own numbers through Sue-Ann Levy, without a margin of error, proportion of undecideds, or disclosure of method! But hey, it is 'scientific!'
Click to expand...

Yeah, I called Levy basically Rob Ford's press secretary on Facebook. She responded that it was just sour grapes from me.

She might as well just relocate her office to Ford's headquarters.
 
So when does Rob Ford actually become mayor? Immediately after the votes are counted? Is there a swearing in ceremony after the fact?
 
Based on the poll that came out two weeks ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see Smitherman in the lead this time around. Between Thompson dropping out and the volume of undecideds from the last poll, we currently don't know how 1/3rd of voters will vote (if you believe the polling numbers, which I don't, but when combined with past voting behaviour they can be a bit useful for argument's sake...). That number of "unknown" votes now exceeds Ford's polling results. I can't imagine many declared Thompson supporters jumping on the Ford bandwagon (since we know from prior elections that Toronto centrist's tend to lean to the left), which means Smitherman only needs around 15% of her supporters to jump to him (assuming the rest go to Pants/Rossi) to be in a dead heat with Ford (this is based on my analysis from here.) I don't think Smitherman in the lead would surprise anyone though.

Then it's full steam ahead from there. I think most of us have hypothesized that the undecideds were just struggling with which of the "not-Ford" options to go with. Considering how stable Ford's support as been, people's opinions of Ford haven't changed at all over the last few months (you either like him or you don't) and it's going to be very difficult for him now that there are two left-centre candidates and two right candidates, knowing that even with record turnouts in the suburbs, the left-centre will have around 75,000 more votes spread over 2 candidates on election day. I believe the best Ford can hope for is for Pants to start picking up steam or for Rossi to drop out, otherwise Smitherman will take it far more comfortably than people would have expected before Thompson dropped out.

This is my own little excel model I've come up with and it's not scientific at all, but for those curious, using the data from prior elections combined with the polling thus far and urban/suburban voter turnout estimations, I'm predicting this as the final outcome (assuming no strategic voting for Rossi or Pants supporters, otherwise Smitherman's win is probably larger):

Smitherman 34.3%
Ford 31.2%
Pants 14.9%
Rossi 12.5%
Other 7.5%
 
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One interesting bit of analysis I see is that on blogs and websites, where arguments are given by the pro-Ford side there is little or no links to support the arguments. The anti-Ford people backup their arguments with links to back them up. Almost like the debates, where Ford keeps repeating the same sound bytes, but the others try to present different points. I would think that without the internet, Rob Ford would have been on firmer ground. Will it be enough, though? Will the voters do their own research before casting their vote?
 
jn_12 said:
Based on the poll that came out two weeks ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see Smitherman in the lead this time around. Between Thompson dropping out and the volume of undecideds from the last poll, we currently don't know how 1/3rd of voters will vote (if you believe the polling numbers, which I don't, but when combined with past voting behaviour they can be a bit useful for argument's sake...). That number of "unknown" votes now exceeds Ford's polling results. I can't imagine many declared Thompson supporters jumping on the Ford bandwagon (since we know from prior elections that Toronto centrist's tend to lean to the left), which means Smitherman only needs around 15% of her supporters to jump to him (assuming the rest go to Pants/Rossi) to be in a dead heat with Ford (this is based on my analysis from here.) I don't think Smitherman in the lead would surprise anyone though.

Then it's full steam ahead from there. I think most of us have hypothesized that the undecideds were just struggling with which of the "not-Ford" options to go with. Considering how stable Ford's support as been, people's opinions of Ford haven't changed at all over the last few months (you either like him or you don't) and it's going to be very difficult for him now that there are two left-centre candidates and two right candidates, knowing that even with record turnouts in the suburbs, the left-centre will have around 75,000 more votes spread over 2 candidates on election day. I believe the best Ford can hope for is for Pants to start picking up steam or for Rossi to drop out, otherwise Smitherman will take it far more comfortably than people would have expected before Thompson dropped out.

This is my own little excel model I've come up with and it's not scientific at all, but for those curious, using the data from prior elections combined with the polling thus far and urban/suburban voter turnout estimations, I'm predicting this as the final outcome (assuming no strategic voting for Rossi or Pants supporters):

Smitherman 34.3%
Ford 31.2%
Pants 14.9%
Rossi 12.5%
Other 7.5%
Click to expand...

Good analysis. I think this is credible. The momentum that George has going since the last poll, Thomson's now being out of the race and endorsing him and Rob Ford slightly losing support in the last poll leads one to conclude that Smitherman should be clearly in the lead by now. Yet, Ford's team seems to be quite confident that his lead is widened according to their internal polls.

My question is... How? I can't see Thomson supporters going to Ford. Maybe to Rossi or even Pantalone given that Sarah and Joe shared a positive message. Perhaps Ford could get ahead without getting ahead: Maintaining his current numbers but Smitherman, Pantalone and Rossi spreading their numbers more evenly in the 20% range.

I'm still very worried because Toronto has been surprising me with uncharacteristic support for a hard line right winger like Ford... Nonetheless, I think that some progressives are still holding on to the possibility that Joe Pantalone might surge... but only until the next poll.

I'm in that camp. I want Joe to win and I'm considering voting for him if Joe and George are neck and neck because anything can happen at that stage. It's all about who actually goes to vote. But if Pants is still in the teens and Smitherman is close to Ford in the next poll, I'm voting Smitherman. I suspect a lot of progressives are going to do the same.

So the worst case scenario for the Anti-Ford group right now would be for the next poll to show Joe Pantalone up in a real competition with Smitherman.
 
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