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Next Mayor of Toronto?

I disagree that Smitherman will emerge as the consensus candidate. Joe is the only one to grow other than Ford. Smitherman has lost momentum.

I think that if a weekly poll is done, Pantalone will be in second place by next week. It's going to be Ford vs Joe in the final stretch I think. It'll be a race of Negative vs Positive and I think people will eventually lean towards the positive message.

Miller seems to have become more vocal for Joe this week. I think that the tide will change once Miller officially endorses Pants (I think he will, he doesn't want his legacy destroyed). Joe will also have a steady stream of other endorsements.
 
Interestingly, the proportion of undecideds is rock-solid at about 25 percent since late August across the Star, Post, and Globe polls I noted above.
 
I think the undecideds reflect that the campaign is only getting started. I haven't seen any ads yet. Granted I don't watch much tv.
 
Maybe a good portion of the undecideds are those that don't really care and won't even vote. Only about 45% even bother to vote. I hope I'm wrong.
 
They usually count only ''likely voters''--ie if you said you were unlikely to vote you don't go in the poll. Can't say if that was done in these cases but that is standard practice far as I know.
 
Torontovibe said:
Maybe a good portion of the undecideds are those that don't really care and won't even vote. Only about 45% even bother to vote. I hope I'm wrong.
Click to expand...
Historically, polling indicates that those that don't vote tend to have the same preference as those that do vote ...

45%? It was 39% in the last election, ranging from 34% in Willowdale to 52% in Don Valley West (Leaside/Flemingdon Park along Eglinton ... I'm sure they are thrilled to have the Eglinton RT cancelled by Ford).
 
allabootmatt said:
They usually count only ''likely voters''--ie if you said you were unlikely to vote you don't go in the poll. Can't say if that was done in these cases but that is standard practice far as I know.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's likely. They discard anyone who says they're probably not going to vote.
 
This seems to be ANOTHER poll:

http://thestar.blogs.com/thegoods/2...mitherman-internal-smitherman-poll-says.html#


A Pollara poll done for the George Smitherman campaign suggests frontrunner Rob Ford has dramatically widened his lead in the race to be Toronto mayor.

The poll of 700 Torontonians conducted Sept. 8 to 12 , and provided to the Star on Sunday, found 46 per cent of decided voters support Ford, 24 per cent Smitherman, 11 per cent for Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone, 7 per cent for Rocco Rossi and 2 per cent for other candidates.

However, according to the poll, some 22 per cent of voters were still undecided. The poll's margin of error is 7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
 
Anyway, we'll see how this plays out. I don't think the math looks any worse for the generic 'Not Ford' ticket than it did a month ago. I just hope this doesn't get played as 'Ford surging' in the media because that's really not what's going on. He's staying the same and everyone else is fragmenting.
 
Can someone -- anyone -- reassuringly explain to me why I shouldn't be terrified of this election and it's outcome please? Like, break down why things don't look as apocalyptic as they seem...and that Ford's chances of winning aren't as inevitable as they seem?
 
GraphicMatt said:
7 percent MOE is pretty ridiculous. How does that even happen with a poll of 700 people?
Click to expand...
What do you mean? That sounds about right for a 95% confidence with that kind of poll size.

The result seems very similar to the other one, with the exception of the Pantalone support.
 
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