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News from the Middle East

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ushahid said:
not trying to spread superstitious believes. i have an Indian friend, his father is an Astrologer and i asked him in January what 2023 has to offer for the world and he predicted alot of things that have been true so far. he mentioned "A war starting in October/November" and "alot of middle eastern countries getting involved" in it, will last for years.

he also said about Biden, dont see him in "New Year eve of 2024"


i dont believe in this but alot things he said personal or related to the world has been true. :(
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A war starting and involving the Middle East. That's not prognostication - that's odds.
 
ushahid said:
not trying to spread superstitious believes. i have an Indian friend, his father is an Astrologer and i asked him in January what 2023 has to offer for the world and he predicted alot of things that have been true so far. he mentioned "A war starting in October/November" and "alot of middle eastern countries getting involved" in it, will last for years.
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Alright there Nostradamus...

Seriously though I can see this blowing up. Israel got caught with their pants down and are now on the defensive, a place they have not been in for many decades.

This is their Pearl Harbour and they are now scrambling to save themselves. Israel is not used to being invaded like this and I can see them fighting for their survival.

If it looks like Hamas is succeeding, you can bet your behind that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries will get involved. They will view this as penance for anti-muslim rhetoric and behavior.

Whatever happens, I can't see a situation where Israel comes out of this unscathed. I see them being occupied and losing alot of territory.

If Israel does have nukes... I would be worried about them being used. If they risk losing this war, I can see them being used.
 
Richard White said:
This is their Pearl Harbour
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I think that's a tad dramatic. An intelligence failure and embarrassment for sure, but it's a regional incursion that has seen them get caught with their pants down. The reported death toll seems small and there are no reports of significant military damage. The IDF has an active strength of about 170,000, an active reserve of something under half a million plus an 'available for military service' population of about 1.5 million. I know where I'd put my money.
 
lenaitch said:
I think that's a tad dramatic. An intelligence failure and embarrassment for sure, but it's a regional incursion that has seen them get caught with their pants down. The reported death toll seems small and there are no reports of significant military damage. The IDF has an active strength of about 170,000, an active reserve of something under half a million plus an 'available for military service' population of about 1.5 million. I know where I'd put my money.
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Not dramatic at all. This was an unexpected attack against a nation who thought they were more powerful than the locals.

It will start a much larger conflict under the guise of self-defense. This is no different than when Japan attacked America and America responded by joining WWII.

I can very much see Israel using this as an excuse to wipe Palestine off the map.
 
lenaitch said:
I think that's a tad dramatic. An intelligence failure and embarrassment for sure, but it's a regional incursion that has seen them get caught with their pants down. The reported death toll seems small and there are no reports of significant military damage. The IDF has an active strength of about 170,000, an active reserve of something under half a million plus an 'available for military service' population of about 1.5 million. I know where I'd put my money.
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The reported death toll is already past 300. With nearly 2000 injured.

Israel has now formally admitted at least one senior commander was killed and revised their claim about how many militants crossed the border now confirming that it was more than 1000.

Pearl harbour may be a bit of a stretch in comparison but this is huge. The real death toll is in the thousands, visually confirmed losses for Israel have to be larger than anything they’ve experienced in many decades. They’ve lost numerous light armoured vehicles, tanks, etc. Over 5000 rockets were fired at Israel. 3 military bases were overrun, and basically everyone in the bases slaughtered or taken into Gaza. Children we kidnapped and murdered. Dead Israelis were paraded through Palestinian streets.

The is currently the most acute armed crises globally aside from Ukraine. It is absolutely unprecedented.

Edit: plus a ground invasion of gaza (which seems likely) could trigger Hezbollah involvement. Suddenly this is Israel vs Iran and it would also push Israeli defences to the limit. Remember, the goal here is not to capture Israel, it’s to wipe it out. Yes Israel is superior, and no there’s almost no situation of any kind where they could lose, but there are definitely situations where the damage is catastrophic.
 
Bjays92 said:
Edit: plus a ground invasion of gaza (which seems likely) could trigger Hezbollah involvement. Suddenly this is Israel vs Iran and it would also push Israeli defences to the limit. Remember, the goal here is not to capture Israel, it’s to wipe it out. Yes Israel is superior, and no there’s almost no situation of any kind where they could lose, but there are definitely situations where the damage is catastrophic
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Israel has been rumored to have a clandestine Nuclear program and arsenal.

As I said, if they do and the fate of the nation is at stake we could be looking at Nuclear war.
 
Towered said:
I don't understand what the strategic aim of this attack is either, because its akin to poking a hornets nest. The retaliation will be swift and brutal. I expect we'll see a full scale re-occupation of Gaza and Hamas to be completely wiped out once and for all.
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1) End the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world.

2) Have Israel tear itself apart politically over hostages and invasions.

3). Secure releases on thousands of Palestinian militants. Last time Israel gave up a thousand prisoners for half a dozen hostages. This time Hamas has dozens to hundreds.

4) Possibly push a wider war, if Hezbollah gets involved, which would force Israel to negotiate substantially.
 
Richard White said:
Not dramatic at all. This was an unexpected attack against a nation who thought they were more powerful than the locals.

It will start a much larger conflict under the guise of self-defense. This is no different than when Japan attacked America and America responded by joining WWII.

I can very much see Israel using this as an excuse to wipe Palestine off the map.
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Beyond the surprise, and perhaps a fair degree of hubris, I still don't see the parallel. Tension had been building up between the US and Japan for quite some time, primarily in the western Pacific. Japan, as a nation/empire, brought the conflict to the US. Germany declared war on the US as an ally of Japan.

I agree they may well take the fight to Palestine. Israel, as a nation and a people, very much have a sense of 'homeland', certainly much more than we do, and its existence has been regionally uneasy since its formation; they don't have a lot of friends in the neighbourhood. As a result, they are pretty well equipped to look after themselves (with a lot of US help).

That Israel has nuclear weapons is pretty much an open secret but I agree, they won't use them here. Given the geography, thank would be akin to pooping in your own bed. They have deep and capable military. Insurgencies are hard to fight, but this has now become more overt and will no doubt be responded to in kind. Give them a couple of weeks.
 
Richard White said:
Israel has been rumored to have a clandestine Nuclear program and arsenal.

As I said, if they do and the fate of the nation is at stake we could be looking at Nuclear war.
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Richard, in the time since the war in Ukraine broke out you've predicted that x and y escalation will go nuclear at least half a dozen times.

Thankfully, you've been wrong in every instance, but why do you keep doing this?
 
Bjays92 said:
No. Not even remotely a possibility. Just flat out not gonna happen.
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Who knows? Hamas has gone all in on this (do or die) with Hezbollah on the ring ropes, and the US is now sending a carrier group to the East Mediterranean. If it spreads to Lebanon, Iran will definitely get involved.

Richard White said:
I wonder what effect a war in the middle east would have on support for Ukraine.
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The biggest issue I could see is both fronts competing for arms and aid from the US (of which Israel is far more important).
 
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jje1000 said:
Who knows? Hamas has gone all in on this (do or die) with Hezbollah on the sidelines, and the US is now sending a carrier group to the East Mediterranean.


The biggest issue I could see is both fronts competing for arms and aid from the US (of which Israel is far more important).
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The one thing the US can agree on bilaterally is support for Israel. If it comes down to it, Israel will get the full support of the US.
 
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