Lord to run for Conservative Leadership: www.bourque.org

[kpad]

I don't know why my first post didn't turn up (or was deleted). Bourque knows all! If he says this is going to happen, I give it at least a 75 percent chance. Check it out at www.bourque.org.

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From Bourque:
EXCLUSIVE: LORD TO RUN ... & STOCK DAY SAYS "NEVER SAY NEVER"
Bourque has learned that NB Premier Bernard Lord is all but set to launch his bid for the leadership of the new Conservative Party of Canada. Maritime sources tell Bourque under condition of anonymity that Lord will spend this weekend in a final contemplation about whther he will move to Ottawa. But, as on insider put it, "Pierre, even Bernard's wife is onside this time, she vetoed his move last time." That would pitch Lord against CA leader Stephen Harper and Calgary lawyer Jim Prentice, who is backed by former PC national director Susan Elliott. Final armtwisting is promised by politico Goldie Hyder, in New Brunswick tomorrow to meet with the Premier. If, as expected, Lord moves to Ottawa, Brad Green, the Min. of Justice, has apparently been tapped as interim leader, and Elvy Robichaud, the Min. of Health is the odds on fav. to win a leadership. Meanwhile, in a CFRA radio conversation late this afternoon, former CA leader Stockwell Day told Bourque he is not closing the door on a run for the leadership, admitting he has been approached by supporters looking to him to lead a united right. "I never say never, Pierre, and right now I am watching the race develop with interest." Developing.

 

[cdl42]

I guess Bourque doesn't know all...

Lord won't seek Conservative leadership
Took holidays to make decision after being pressured to go for it

Toronto Star, Dec. 30
CANADIAN PRESS

FREDERICTON - N.B. Premier Bernard Lord ended months of speculation and political dithering today when he announced that he would not seek the leadership of the new Conservative Party of Canada.
Lord issued a statement that said he had thought about the opportunity over the holidays, but decided he could best serve the public by "continuing my work as premier."

"I want to thank all the people who called, wrote and sent messages of encouragement and support," Lord said in the statement. "I've been touched by their confidence and advice."

Sources wouldn't offer further explanation, but observers have suggested Lord realized he would have faced a tough fight against former Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper.

Harper is widely considered the front-runner in the race, which started earlier this year when the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada merged with the Canadian Alliance.

"Bernard Lord has always said that his first responsibility was always to the people of New Brunswick and that is quite clear from his announcement," Harper said in a statement.

"I do hope, however, that he will continue to assist and encourage the Conservative Party, especially as we head towards the next federal election."

Suggestions Lord might enter the race surfaced when high-profile Tories began tossing his name around as a high-profile, bilingual candidate who could provide a moderate voice for a party that some critics have dismissed as too right wing.

Lord remained coy, only saying he was considering a leadership bid after Alberta Premier Ralph Klein and others encouraged him to step in.

His vague comments contrasted with earlier statements that he would stay on in New Brunswick and fulfil his promises to the people after a summer election campaign.

It was a familiar political dance for Lord, who had toyed with and rejected similar courting last year when the federal Progressive Conservative party was looking for a new leader to replace Joe Clark.

Political observers say all the attention has raised Lord's profile, but warn that his dithering might hurt him in the end.

"It makes it difficult to know exactly where his heart is, what he really wants to do, what he sees as his role in this province and in the national political scene when no doesn't mean no," said Don Desserud, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick.

"I suspect that if he was to ever entertain the idea of going (federal) again that he would not get much of a positive reception."

So far, the leadership race has one official candidate: Calgary lawyer Jim Prentice. Harper has said he will officially declare his candidacy Jan. 12.

Meanwhile, former Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay is expected to enter the contest now that Lord is out of the picture. MacKay, a Nova Scotia MP, was worried about challenging Lord because the two politicians draw much of their support from Atlantic Canada.

The leadership vote will be held March 21.

Party sources said today they are still trying to draft other candidates, including long-time party strategist Hugh Segal and Toronto corporate titan Belinda Stronach.

Stronach helped broker the merger between the Alliance and the Tories earlier this year.

Lord's decision will likely come as a blow to moderate Conservatives hoping to install a more progressive leader in the job.

Many seemed captivated with Lord, a cautious, low-key politician who came out of nowhere in 1997 to win the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Invigorated by the youthful, fluently bilingual leader, the Tories swept into power in the 1999 provincial election, ending 12 years of Liberal rule.

Supporters also seemed willing to overlook the provincial election of June2003, when a lacklustre campaign almost cost Lord the race.

Still, Conservatives in New Brunswick were elated with his decision today.

"It's a very good move," said Lisa Keenan, president of the provincial wing of the Conservative party.

"It's in the best interests of New Brunswickers, it's in the best interests of the party, and his family."

 

[spmarshall]

Too bad. Lord would have been very similar to Paul Martin in their politics, and possibly even to Martin's left. Lord would have made Martin nervous about both the right and left flanks. Right now Martin appears to be worried about Jack Jayton too.

 

[jamerinbow]

Lord knows that 2008 is a far better time for him than 2004. It's easier to maintain your reputation as a winner when you pick up the pieces of a devastated party (which he did in New Brunswick) rather than lead that party into complete and utter devastation (which is coming this April).

My prediction for the next election (highly tentative, and probably not realistic, but...)

Liberal 226
NDP 29
Conservative 28
BQ 25

As a further barometer, watch the NDP numbers. If they rise, it's because the Conservative threat is no longer being taken seriously. I think the NDP still have the support of as much as 20% of the voters, but as many as 5-10% of the electorate are NDPers who went Liberal in order to fight off a Reform/Alliance attack. I know that these people exist because I was one of them. But no longer. As Martin's leadership is indistinguishable from the PCs and as the Alliance takeover of the Conservatives are complete, we're heading into a Diefenbaker-like majority.

...James