Liberal rise, Conservatives fall in recent polls

[heckles2]

www.sesresearch.com/elect...02006E.pdf

National SES Poll
January 19, 2006

Conservatives - 35.5%
Liberals - 29.0%
NDP - 18.8%
Bloc - 11.1%
Green - 5.6%

Looks like the undecided voters are locking in behind the NDP and Liberals, while the middle of the road voters who courted the Conservatives are swinging back to Liberal at the last minute.

Great news to me.

Voters seem to be getting the message: Conservatives got nothing except screaming CORRUPTION, CORRUPTION. And they got nothing but vote buying tax cut promises for everything. I don't think the average Canadian cares if you try to buy their vote with a $25 or $50 a year "tax cut" for transit, it only means those dollars won't be there to fix transit. Same for every other issue he promises on.

I'm upset at the NDP, Jack Layton says he can work with a Conservative government? Bah. I think it was poor politics on Layton's part to bring down a working coalition that was getting results for Canada.

I'd be voting Liberal if I were able to.

As an American, Harper sounds 100% like George W. Bush in 2000. He's playing moderate. Good news is that in Canada you have the NDP to hold them back in a minority government. :hat

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

Pity for the Conservatives. They were looking strong at 40% and this drop (although with margin of error there may be no ch or little change, but I have seen other polls indicating the same so this does appear to a trend) probably makes a majority much harder for them to achieve.

According to a few pollsters/talking heads on CBC Radio the biggest change appears to be in Ontario where there a shift back towards the Liberals, particularily in the GTA.

Canadian elections are really almost impossible to predict, especially when you have races like this where the margins are so tight that the slightest change in numbers can mean a lot. I wouldnt be surprised to see more undecided voters and soft conservative supporters shift their vote too the Liberals. I cant see it translating into a victory by any means, but it could mean a weak Conservative minority. And that could be very interesting, especially if the NDP comes up short and the balance of power is left to the Bloc and Liberals.

 

[Copper1212]

I wonder what the Conservatives will even be able to accomplish in a minority. You would basically have 3 leftist parties holding the majority against a governing party that none of them agree with. At least with the Liberals holding a minority they can work with the NDP and Bloc because they all left leaning views.

 

[rbtaylor]

I wonder what the Conservatives will even be able to accomplish in a minority.

Bloc would agree to most provincial power transfers and any additional funding for have-not provinces at the expense of the have provinces (Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, BC?)

 

[spmarshall]

Given that the Conservatives would not go for squeezing the "have" provinces (especially oil-rich Alberta), I see the provincal power/money transfers as the only major agenda that the Bloc and Cons would have in common. But that includes the constitution - Quebec separtists have as much interest in having provincial control over it (say for shaping the terms of a new referendum or for controlling internal matters or referendum conditions) than as the Calgary School (say for opposing social rights and liberties).

This may depend on the size of the Con minority.

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

Bloc would agree to most provincial power transfers and any additional funding for have-not provinces at the expense of the have provinces (Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, BC?)

Actually that is really unlikely. The increased autonomy that the western provinces seek seems to be more centered around fiscal imbalances, in their case, paying less into equalization payments, which means provinces that currently pay more than they receive would would pay less (Alberta, Ontario, BC, etc), while the provinces that currently receive money from equalization payments (Quebec, Maritime Provinces, Northern Territories) would see a descrease in the money they receive. So in this case the Bloc is not likely to agree to such a situation unless it gets the power transfers that it desires. And as Harper has said he is not interested in downloading any services to the provinces, only respecting current jurisdiction. So either Harper bends for the Bloc and the better off provinces find themselves with more money, or nothing is likely to happen unless someone else offers their support on this issue. I dont think you have to worry about those 'have not' provinces getting any extra money under a Conservative government, in fact, they are more likely to get less than anything else.

 

[rbtaylor]

Actually that is really unlikely.

They're not going to last in power very long without a majority unless they work with someone or abandon a large portion of their platform.

 

[bizorky]

If the Liberals go into leadership turmoil, the Conservatives will be the party to remain in the spotlight.

There are many fences to mend inside the Liberal party, Martin has actually ruffled alot of feathers with his approach to taking the leadership.

 

[garden of evil]

2 points:
1 - I often wonder if the Bloc actually wants to get what they see as "good for Quebec" in Ottawa. Are they really fighting for Quebec interests? Think about it. If you want your province to separate from Canada, but you are fighting for and getting concessions from Ottawa to make the referendum voters in Quebec happy, will you ever win a referendum? Of course not. So, if the Bloc puts up the front of "doing what is best for Quebec", but doesnt actually do what it needs to do to acheive that, they set the conditions for Quebec voters to get angry with Canada, and vote to separate. If you actually fight for Quebec's interest in Canada and acheive it, you will never obtain separation.

2 - I would LOVE to see, on Monday, the votes come in for a very weak Conservative minority government with strong seat #'s for the Libs and NDP. Well, I wouldnt love that, but what I would love to see is Stephen Harper make a speech about getting rid of the corrupt Liberals, and go on and on about how he is PM now. 2 days later Michaell Jean announces that Paul Martin and Jack Layton have formed an alliance, and she has accepted this as their seat #'s together is greater than the Conservatives. Paul Martin stays Prime Minister, and Jack Layton becomes Deputy Prime Minister. That would be SO FUNNY!!!! (and actually kind of good for the country I think).

 

[ganjavih]

If the Conservatives had a moderate leader such as Bernard Lord, I think they would have easily won a majority.

 

[blixa442]

Voting hasn't taken place yet, so who's to say they won't get majority?

Another interesting point about the Liberals is that the party is deeply mired in debt. It may take several years before they are back to full strength.

 

[Darkstar416]

If the Conservatives had a moderate leader such as Bernard Lord, I think they would have easily won a majority.

Agreed. Bernard Lord would have also done wonders for them in Quebec (beyond their already impressive showing).

I still think you may see Bernie as Conservative leader and I'd guess it to be within three years.