High Speed Rail: London - Kitchener-Waterloo - Pearson Airport - Toronto

[DB9]

The announcement of HSR Quebec-Windsor would make him King Trudeau II.

Emporer Trudeau, the great Helmsman

 

[TOareaFan]

Those reports never had Kitchener Waterloo or Pearson stops, they presumed that the HSR would travel like the current main VIA line to London runs.

Yes, I understand that....but the swing from the most subsidized portion of the whole thing to so profitable it cuts (on an NPV basis) the cost from multi-billions to $500 million is very large (don't forget he is also talking about some pretty low fares on this line).....I would love to see the assumptions that are going into the conclusion of such profitability.

 

[mpd618]

VIA owns the London to Kitchener corridor ...

Unfortunately, this isn't correct. Metrolinx owns the portion from Union to (near) Bramalea and has a conditional agreement to purchase the portion from Georgetown to Kitchener. But the rest is owned by CN.

 

[rbt]

Man I thought HSR was going to be 5 billion at least. It is because they already have the tracks in place (mostly?)

It will be BUT much of the work duplicates electrification of the Kitchener line.

If you assume Kitchener will be electrified with or without HSR, thus absorbs the full cost of the Kitchener section, then HSR to London becomes a much cheaper and incremental add-on.

Just as the Georgetown grade separation was a $1B project and now that its done HSR may use it at a very small cost.

 

[rbt]

I guess that operating at a profit thing is contained in that report that Murray could not release to the public because of the election....wonder when we will see that? Every other report on HSR (when it was considered a Quebec City to Windsor project) had shown the part west/south west of Toronto being the part that needed the greatest subsidies....then, voila, Murray has a report that he can't show us that shows this part being so operationally profitable that the net cost of the whole project is something like $500 million?

Yeah, I agree it's highly questionable but those other lines all went through Hamilton rather than Kitchener/Pearson.

They also didn't consider that Toronto would have electrified service and a track rebuild on 150km of the line already.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

It will be BUT much of the work duplicates electrification of the Kitchener line.

If you assume Kitchener will be electrified with or without HSR, thus absorbs the full cost of the Kitchener section, then HSR to London becomes a much cheaper and incremental add-on.

Just as the Georgetown grade separation was a $1B project and now that its done HSR may use it at a very small cost.

Makes sense. The work is already being done in a sense. When should this whole line open, I hope sooner then later.

 

[rbt]

Unfortunately, this isn't correct. Metrolinx owns the portion from Union to (near) Bramalea and has a conditional agreement to purchase the portion from Georgetown to Kitchener. But the rest is owned by CN.

Are you sure VIA didn't take over much of it in 2013 (~Kitchener to ~London)?

Either way, the MTO report didn't think it was usable and intended to create a new corridor from Kitchener to London.

 

[dunkalunk]

It will be BUT much of the work duplicates electrification of the Kitchener line.

If you assume Kitchener will be electrified with or without HSR, thus absorbs the full cost of the Kitchener section, then HSR to London becomes a much cheaper and incremental add-on.

Just as the Georgetown grade separation was a $1B project and now that its done HSR may use it at a very small cost.

To run a true high-speed rail service, an Acton bypass is still required and was part of the 300km/h alternative Murray presented in London. Without that peice, you're still running 200km/h service. Nothing to sneeze at mind you, but still not High-speed. There will me much duplication of work, for instance, grade separation in Georgetown, Guelph and Kitchener, but not all of the work between Kitchener and Toronto would be used. A HSR corridor would still likely use most of the line however, so the point holds.

 

[dunkalunk]

Are you sure VIA didn't take over much of it in 2013 (~Kitchener to ~London)?

Either way, the MTO report didn't think it was usable and intended to create a new corridor from Kitchener to London.

The existing line would be able to support far more conventional rail service, but not high-speed. There would be a significant amount of grade separation that would need to occur through Baden, New Hamburg, Stratford, St. Marys, and on the approach into London where almost all of the crossings through built-up areas are at grade. There are so many that a new greenfield alignment begins make sense given that a high-speed train wouldn't be able to get up to or maintain full-speed.

 

[innsertnamehere]

They have been pretty clear a new alignment would be used after Kitchener.

 

[TOareaFan]

Yeah, I agree it's highly questionable but those other lines all went through Hamilton rather than Kitchener/Pearson.

They also didn't consider that Toronto would have electrified service and a track rebuild on 150km of the line already.

That might reduce the upfront capital cost but it is not clear to me how it affects the operational profitability once the service is open.

 

[mpd618]

Are you sure VIA didn't take over much of it in 2013 (~Kitchener to ~London)?

Either way, the MTO report didn't think it was usable and intended to create a new corridor from Kitchener to London.

VIA didn't take it over in 2013, no. What did happen is an agreement between VIA and CN on paying to install CTC / signals along the Guelph subdivision, which is currently being done.

 

[andrewpmk]

VIA didn't take it over in 2013, no. What did happen is an agreement between VIA and CN on paying to install CTC / signals along the Guelph subdivision, which is currently being done.

Does this line really have any real chance of getting built, given the provincial budget deficit, or was it just an election promise?

Will the funding for this get pulled from some controversial LRT projects in Toronto (you know which ones)?

 

[TOareaFan]

Does this line really have any real chance of getting built, given the provincial budget deficit, or was it just an election promise?

Will the funding for this get pulled from some controversial LRT projects in Toronto (you know which ones)?

Of course it will be built. Murray promised it will be open for revenue service in 6 to 8 years. It has been "fully costed" and, as we know, this is not the old Liberal government this is the new one that respects the voters/taxpayers/citizens of Ontario and would not promise something that they do not intend to deliver.

 

[rbt]

That might reduce the upfront capital cost but it is not clear to me how it affects the operational profitability once the service is open.

Correct, sharing tracks won't impact most operating costs though I suppose you can split corridor maintenance costs between more runs.

Provided HSR ticketing is available through the online airfare booking systems like Expedia as a connection option (Hotwire, Expedia, etc.) and perhaps even get Air Canada/WestJet on board as a partner, it'll be fine.

London to Toronto flights are not profitable (not a loss either). They exist purely because they connect to a profitable flight. Kitchener to Toronto or Pearson to Union flights don't exist at all, so Air Canada or WestJet selling those tickets would be pure profit from the commission earned (usually 10% IIRC). Several European trains are bookable as connections from travel sites as flight connection option. By serving Pearson this becomes an option. Murry hints at this possibility by calling the new Pearson train stop Terminal 2.

Again, tons of open questions including business associations but there is enough of a business case to do an EA.