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Guelph-Cambridge Initial Business Case - Battery Multiple Units now proposed

A transit speed up of 56 minutes to 17 minutes is fairly transformative. There will be major economic impacts for even intra-regional travel.

To be fair, the 56-minute number includes a transfer at Aberfoyle. If they ran a direct bus route it would probably be scheduled to take about 25-35 minutes.
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The problem with a bus is of course that it would be a lot less predictable than the train due to potential traffic, which would require much longer scheduled transfer times to trains in Guelph to avoid missed connections. GO typically schedules buses to arrive 15 minutes before the train, but if the Cambridge-Guelph service is a train it could be scheduled with connections as tight as 5 minutes in Guelph.

Even if the train is approved, they should introduce a direct bus service in the interim to grow ridership along the corridor.
 
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To be fair, the 56-minute number includes a transfer at Aberfoyle. If they ran a direct bus route it would probably be scheduled to take about 25-35 minutes.
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The problem with a bus is of course that it would be a lot less predictable than the train due to potential traffic, which would require much longer scheduled transfer times to trains in Guelph to avoid missed connections. GO typically schedules buses to arrive 15 minutes before the train, but if the Cambridge-Guelph service is a train it could be scheduled with connections as tight as 5 minutes in Guelph.

Also trains are cool af, so theres that disadvantage of a bus too.
 
Hey fellow transit nerds. to Craig Johnson's post about my photo on railpictuers.ca - the discontinuance process for the Fergus which began December 2023 is for the 2.5 miles of track south of Eagle St in Cambridge.

Since that section of track is reluctantly (to my eyes) not included in the GO transit proposal it's surplus to CN's real estate needs.

The rest of the line is business as usual, about once to twice a week it's used to Galt and up to 4 times a week on the entire line.

What I am dismayed about is that part of the line includes both Galt and Preston which would really benefit from train stations - not only to aid in urban intensification, but to service multiple communities instead of one. The province and/or region seems stuck in a desire to bring a station to what's now a concrete jungle, an urban wasteland of shopping instead of putting a station in existing communities downtowns.

They could have had Galt, Preston, Hespeler added to the map and think of all the things that could land in these downtowns that badly need the rejuvenation. It's crazy how they don't seem to think of the past but instead try to re-invent new things like a new community.

I';m certain there will be tonnes of real estate speculation and intensification s near Pinebush and sure the LRT connection is their modus operendi, but why only one station when three would serve the people better.
 
What I am dismayed about is that part of the line includes both Galt and Preston which would really benefit from train stations - not only to aid in urban intensification, but to service multiple communities instead of one. The province and/or region seems stuck in a desire to bring a station to what's now a concrete jungle, an urban wasteland of shopping instead of putting a station in existing communities downtowns.

They could have had Galt, Preston, Hespeler added to the map and think of all the things that could land in these downtowns that badly need the rejuvenation. It's crazy how they don't seem to think of the past but instead try to re-invent new things like a new community.

I';m certain there will be tonnes of real estate speculation and intensification s near Pinebush and sure the LRT connection is their modus operendi, but why only one station when three would serve the people better.
I don't see a way that this will be up and running any time before iON buses connect the proposed station to downtown Preston (via Eagle St North) and Galt (via Hespeler Rd), but I do agree that there should be consideration for a Hespeler station at Guelph Avenue. That alone would also create a rapid transit connection over the 401 between Hespeler and the rest of Cambridge.

A BRT (and eventual LRT) connection through Cambridge that connects the whole city to Pinebush GO may be cheaper than acquiring station land in Preston and Galt, and especially any ROW south of Bishop Street.
 
Do you know where I could read the Metrolinx 2031 plan? I didn’t know one for 2031 existed.

This is referring to the 2008 Big Move document. The 2041 plan was released in 2017. We will probably get a 2051 plan in another 3 to 4 years.

Of course, just because it's in the plan in a specified priority order doesn't mean it'll happen that way. Parts of the 2017 document were substantially modified when PC's took power, and some lower scoring projects suddenly got top priority and funding.
 
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This is referring to the 2008 Big Move document. The 2041 plan was released in 2017. We will probably get a 2051 plan in another 3 to 4 years.

Of course, just because it's in the plan in a specified priority order doesn't mean it'll happen that way. Parts of the 2017 document were substantially modified when PC's took power, and some lower scoring projects suddenly got top priority and funding.
Oh I see, I thought the document you mentioned was a separate one from The Big Move.

Yeah I’m vaguely aware of how plans in these documents work, and just because it’s in the document doesn’t mean it’s a committed project.

Many of the proposed network expansions outlined in The Big Move plan haven’t happened, which shows a change in focus by Metrolinx, now prioritising investing in the existing network over expanding to places not currently served by GO:
You_Doodle+_2023-11-22T04_16_06Z.jpeg
 
This is referring to the 2008 Big Move document. The 2041 plan was released in 2017. We will probably get a 2051 plan in another 3 to 4 years.
Well, they closed the RTP already. I'm not sure how long these reports take. I'd thought they would want to complete it faster and before the election.

Also due to many decisions the 2041 plan is quite out of date.

Nov 30, 2023 Metrolinx Planning and Development quarterly report.
We are targeting the submission of a draft RTP to the Ministry of Transportation at the end of the first quarter in the 2024-25 fiscal year.
Work to update the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) is well underway. Working in partnership with the Ministry of Transportation (MTO), municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Indigenous communities, and external stakeholders, updates to the RTP will set out a
long-term plan to 2051 for the region’s integrated transit network. The updates will bring the RTP into conformity with Connecting the GGH: A Transportation Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the multimodal plan for the region released by the province in 2022. The updated RTP will also reflect our new transit-focused mandate and expanded service area, as well as changes in the region’s planning context since 2018. This will include updated government direction on housing and growth, and changes in travel behaviour that were brought about by the pandemic.
Our expanded service area extends across numerous traditional territories and treaty areas and includes nine First Nation reserves. This month, in coordination with our Indigenous Relations Office (IRO), we kicked off engagement with First Nations through introduction letters to Indigenous communities. We also met with three First Nations at IRO’s monthly meetings to better understand their unique transit service needs and perspectives. Our new mandate area also includes fifteen upper and single tier municipalities covering urban centres like Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Barrie, and Peterborough. Metrolinx has met directly with municipalities through one-on-one meetings and our established municipal collaboration forums, such as the Regional Roundtable, Municipal Planning Leaders Forum, and the Municipal Technical Advisory Committee.
The extension of the RTP to 2051 provides an opportunity to identify key priorities over the next 5-10 years, with a focus on connecting communities to the key regional destinations where people live, work, access services, study, and play. The technical work and engagement underway will help to ensure that the RTP update results in an integrated, effective, and sustainable regional transit network for all.
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An ION extension (after acquisition by the province) deviating just prior to reaching the mainline in Guelph would have added economy of scale to that system and served Guelph rather than being an isolated shuttle intended to shovel commuters at the GO train. It wouldn’t even have foreclosed freight service, given ION has not.

Since (reluctant sigh) this seems to far along to stop now, then it would at least be good to see this as part of a broader fleet acquisition to expand MTO owned heavy rail reach while close enough to have parts and expertise near at hand, rather than one of the collection of mini MU fleets OC Transpo has used/will use on Line 2/4.

With OBRY shuttered one of the obvious candidates (Orangeville-direct curve-Brampton GO) is gone. Maybe a Barrie shuttle on the BCRY? Another possibility would be a full replacement of UPX with these vehicles, selling the existing fleet to a high platform operation, such as join their Sonoma-Marin CA siblings, or to replace the mix of RDCs and Colorado Railcar in Portland OR.
 
An ION extension (after acquisition by the province) deviating just prior to reaching the mainline in Guelph would have added economy of scale to that system and served Guelph rather than being an isolated shuttle intended to shovel commuters at the GO train. It wouldn’t even have foreclosed freight service, given ION has not.

Since (reluctant sigh) this seems to far along to stop now, then it would at least be good to see this as part of a broader fleet acquisition to expand MTO owned heavy rail reach while close enough to have parts and expertise near at hand, rather than one of the collection of mini MU fleets OC Transpo has used/will use on Line 2/4.

With OBRY shuttered one of the obvious candidates (Orangeville-direct curve-Brampton GO) is gone. Maybe a Barrie shuttle on the BCRY? Another possibility would be a full replacement of UPX with these vehicles, selling the existing fleet to a high platform operation, such as join their Sonoma-Marin CA siblings, or to replace the mix of RDCs and Colorado Railcar in Portland OR.
I really do like the concept of this being more Waterloo focused than a GO operation... even as a mainline shuttle I'd be inclined to think it ought to be branded as Ion line 2... HOWEVER, thats a big ask inter municipal cooperation being what it is and Metrolinx such a powerful way of sidestepping the issue.

In any case, while I would like to see even a GO version of this operate as a tram train on the Galt end I'm a lot less convinced in Guelph. The only path that makes any sense to me would be Stone Road and Gordon Street:
1725209724472.png

It's got some appeal insofar as it hits major destinations, but thats a lot of new track compared some extra capacity on an already multi track corridor. It's also going to have significant running time on a line that people already question the attractiveness of for long distance passengers and eliminates any possibility of branching (as much as I'm inclined to think branching doesn't make much sense here keeping the possibility of a few through trains daily wouldn't have a lot of cost if it were built to main line standards). Finally, I'd suggest that that local service attractiveness of the tram train option above would be met almost as well with a light BRT connecting to a Guelph West station.

At the end of the day I think the Region's approach to keeping the initial business case as simple as possible is exactly correct. Anything that raises costs or introduces regulatory risk is a threat to the project as a whole. IMO this should be viewed first and foremost in the same kind of light as the O-Train pilot with every intention of refinement once the general viability of the service is demonstrated.
 
At the end of the day I think the Region's approach to keeping the initial business case as simple as possible is exactly correct. Anything that raises costs or introduces regulatory risk is a threat to the project as a whole. IMO this should be viewed first and foremost in the same kind of light as the O-Train pilot with every intention of refinement once the general viability of the service is demonstrated.
I take your point - my concern is that a BEMU shuttle into a station which appears to be a two through track only arrangement seems to create pathing complexity for limited benefit. If the shuttle had its own track or even a stub platform to get out of the way, it would be the obvious choice. But Guelph Central / GO is hemmed in by a curve, a bridge, and adjoining buildings, some of them of significant heritage value. No easy way to get to the Guelph Junction track either.
IMG_1357.jpeg
 
An ION extension (after acquisition by the province) deviating just prior to reaching the mainline in Guelph would have added economy of scale to that system and served Guelph rather than being an isolated shuttle intended to shovel commuters at the GO train. It wouldn’t even have foreclosed freight service, given ION has not.

Since (reluctant sigh) this seems to far along to stop now, then it would at least be good to see this as part of a broader fleet acquisition to expand MTO owned heavy rail reach while close enough to have parts and expertise near at hand, rather than one of the collection of mini MU fleets OC Transpo has used/will use on Line 2/4.

With OBRY shuttered one of the obvious candidates (Orangeville-direct curve-Brampton GO) is gone. Maybe a Barrie shuttle on the BCRY? Another possibility would be a full replacement of UPX with these vehicles, selling the existing fleet to a high platform operation, such as join their Sonoma-Marin CA siblings, or to replace the mix of RDCs and Colorado Railcar in Portland OR.
A full replacement of the UP Express fleet is planned with electrification, there are plans for the service to be heavily integrated into the GO network
 
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I take your point - my concern is that a BEMU shuttle into a station which appears to be a two through track only arrangement seems to create pathing complexity for limited benefit. If the shuttle had its own track or even a stub platform to get out of the way, it would be the obvious choice. But Guelph Central / GO is hemmed in by a curve, a bridge, and adjoining buildings, some of them of significant heritage value. No easy way to get to the Guelph Junction track either.
A third full track is a problem sure, but as much as the work to date has lacked this level of design there IS explicit intent for a third track and it doesn’t look like the issues are that complex if you accept track sharing between the station and junction and build platform three as a partial length stub track on the south side of the station.
 

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