News   May 15, 2024
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News   May 15, 2024
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News   May 15, 2024
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GTHA Regional Transit Amalgamation Discussion: Superlinx/Subway Upload

The $500M over 10 years Ford pledged during the election toward subway capital won't cover much of the unfunded backlog; won't even buy new trains for Line 2.
I'd assume that they aren't uploading the rolling stock; because they'd have to pay to maintain it.

No secret that Doug Ford's math is poor - not sure how he is going to even pay for his Scarborough subway promises after uploading. Let's see how long before he screws up the budget to the point our debt gets downloaded.
 
I'd assume that they aren't uploading the rolling stock; because they'd have to pay to maintain it.

The only scenario I've seen presented in detail was one matching the Eglinton and Finch legal structures where Metrolinx does own the rolling stock. In fact, consistency in division of responsibility would make things much easier to manage.

That's not necessarily what will happen but it seems likely to be the starting point for discussions.
 
The only scenario I've seen presented in detail was one matching the Eglinton and Finch legal structures where Metrolinx does own the rolling stock. In fact, consistency in division of responsibility would make things much easier to manage.
That's true. And if they did that, it would save the city budget from the impending replacement of the T1 cars.

Also, I'd assume the province would have to assume some of the city's debt. No payment for the real estate, etc. ... but there's still city debt attributable to recent capital works and the TR purchase.
 
There’s nothing legally enforcing that
There's also nothing legally stopping the Ontario Government dismissing John Tory and appointing Michael Ford as mayor of Toronto either!

I'd still assume that if subway infrastructure is uploaded without any financial compensation, that the province would be uploaded some of the associated debt.
 
There's also nothing legally stopping the Ontario Government dismissing John Tory and appointing Michael Ford as mayor of Toronto either!

I'd still assume that if subway infrastructure is uploaded without any financial compensation, that the province would be uploaded some of the associated debt.

You're definitely more optimistic than me. Given the provincial debt situation, I really don't see Doug Ford willingly adding billions more in debt to his governments budget.
 
You're definitely more optimistic than me. Given the provincial debt situation, I really don't see Doug Ford willingly adding billions more in debt to his governments budget.
I also assume once the penny drops at how much uploading the subway will cost the provincial purse, even without uploading any debt, that plan will die quickly!
 
I’m quite confident that QP will still leave Toronto on the hook for the same amount of the capital costs as we are today. Why would they do it any other way? The province is broke and they hold literally 100% of the “negotiation” power here. Toronto is in no position to be demand capital expenditures from Queen's Park. I don't get why anyone would expect Queen's Park to be on the hook for capital expenditures that Toronto desires. QP could quite easily pay whatever minimum capex is required to keep the system functional, and tell Toronto to cough up the rest of the money.

Think about this situation:

Toronto says it wants to upgrade Line 2 with ATC, to allow for more reliable service. Queen's Park says no, Line 2 is fine. One of two things happen:

a) Toronto coughs up the money, or

b) Torontonians just deal with unreliable Line 2 service.

Anyone thinking that this subway upload will result in QP eagerly opening their wallet for capex is deluding themselves.

And of course, beyond that its all but certain that Toronto will remain responsible for operational expenditures
 
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I’m quite confident that QP will still leave Toronto on the hook for the same amount of the capital costs as we are today. Why would they do it any other way? The province is broke and they hold literally 100% of the “negotiation” power here. Toronto is in no position to be demand capital expenditures from Queen's Park. I don't get why anyone would expect Queen's Park to be on the hook for capital expenditures that Toronto desires. QP could quite easily pay whatever minimum capex is required to keep the system functional, and tell Toronto to cough up the rest of the money
Keep in mind, that this was a Liberal proposal, that wasn't intended to screw Toronto. I suspect what is happening here, is that senior bureaucrats have simply pushed ahead with it, and their political taskmasters are too ignorant to realize the implications.

I think this will die quickly, when (or perhaps if, given the clear lack of reading ability at the top) the Tories realise the implications. There's no way that this doesn't increase provincial government spending, even if Toronto still holds all the debt.

I don't think it speeds up subway expansion either - I think it slows it down by years. The same way that uploading slowed down Line 5 through 7 construction. The only reason they got shovels in the ground on Line 5 early, is that TTC had already prepared the contract and tender for the tunelling contracts ... which as you'll recall weren't done either as a PPP, DBMO, or even a DBM! They were simple and traditional tunnelling contracts similar to the Line 1 extension to Vaughan Centre.
 
Keep in mind, that this was a Liberal proposal, that wasn't intended to screw Toronto. I suspect what is happening here, is that senior bureaucrats have simply pushed ahead with it, and their political taskmasters are too ignorant to realize the implications.

Even when the Liberals made the same proposal, I was 100% against it, because it would only be a matter of time before a new Ontario government used that power to actively screw Toronto.

Ontario governments have been, at best, apathetic towards Toronto, and at worst, activity hostile towards Torotonains and their political opinions. We all saw what the Harris government did to Toronto, GO Transit and transit in general in the 1990s, and we see the new PC government acting with the exact same brand of hostility today. Why anyone would trust these Provincial institutions to do right by Torotonians is beyond me. The Government of Ontario will always do what's best for their own political fortunes. What's best for Ontario politicians is not necessarily what's best for Toronto. And of course, we now see ministers openly musing about extending the subway to Pickering! The Government of Ontario is no friend of Toronto, thats for sure.

And it's not as if Toronto has been perfect with regards to management of transportation issues, but if we're going to get screwed, I'd rather us screw ourselves, than our provincial overlords. At least Torontonians can appeal to Council to change their decisions. But Torotonians are powerless to fight against Queen's Park: we're just 2.8 Million of 14 Million Ontarians, living in a constitutional structure that forever enslaves Toronto to the whims of our Queen's Park masters.

I don't think it speeds up subway expansion either - I think it slows it down by years. The same way that uploading slowed down Line 5 through 7 construction. The only reason they got shovels in the ground on Line 5 early, is that TTC had already prepared the contract and tender for the tunelling contracts ... which as you'll recall weren't done either as a PPP, DBMO, or even a DBM! They were simple and traditional tunnelling contracts similar to the Line 1 extension to Vaughan Centre.

As I've mentioned before, we're wasting valuable time reorganizing the organizational structure of the TTC. That's time that could be spent advancing projects that'll actually help people get around, like the Relief Line. All this effort reorganizing the subway will not help anyone get to work any faster. And of course, when the dust settles, I think we'll find that Metrolinx's procurement processes aren't any better than the TTC. In fact, the Auditor General just released a report revealing how shoddy Metrolinx's procurement work for the ECLRT has been. Metrolinx is adding layers upon layers of bureaucracy, but I've yet to see any solid indication that they're any better at managing this stuff than the TTC.

I think this will die quickly, when (or perhaps if, given the clear lack of reading ability at the top) the Tories realise the implications. There's no way that this doesn't increase provincial government spending, even if Toronto still holds all the debt.

Yes, I really hope you're right about this.
 
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While in some ways what you say is true, Torontonians can take the blame for themselves. Ford got into power thanks to the GTA as he was decidedly unpopular in all of the other urban areas. He didn't get one seat in Windsor or London.
 
Ontario governments have been, at best, apathetic towards Toronto, and at worst, activity hostile towards Torotonains and their political opinions. We all saw what the Harris government did to Toronto, GO Transit and transit in general in the 1990, and we see the new PC government acting with the exact same brand of hostility today. Why anyone would trust these Provincial institutions to do right by Torotonians is beyond me. The Government of Ontario will always do what's best for their own political fortunes. What's best for Ontario politicians is not necessarily what's best for Toronto. And of course, we now see ministers openly musing about extending the subway to Pickering! The Government of Ontario is no friend of Toronto, thats for sure.

Don't take it personally - his government screwed the rest of the province fairly democratically.
 

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