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GTA To Have More Ridings Than Quebec?

Edward Skira

http://skyrisecities.com
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Good news though it will take a while. The cities will finally have the political clout to ensure urban issues are addressed. And a GTA with the clout of Quebec would be huge change.

Ontario in line for increase in number of federal ridings
http://www.thestar.com/article/212403

30 more seats possible over next three decades under proposed revamp of election legislation
May 10, 2007 04:30 AM
Allan Woods
Ottawa Bureau
OTTAWA–Ontario could have an extra 30 federal seats within three decades – and significantly more clout in the House of Commons – under a piece of legislation the Conservative government plans to release in the coming days, sources say.

A bill to be unveiled by government House leader Peter Van Loan will use the predicted growth in population, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, to justify a boost in the number of Ontario MPs. Ontario currently has 106 ridings.

Alberta and British Columbia, the two other provinces experiencing major population growth, are also expected to get extra federal representation, but Canada's largest province will get the biggest boost. Alberta currently has 28 seats and B.C. has 36.

The Canada Elections Act already provides for changes to electoral boundaries to keep up with population growth, but observers say the system has lagged behind the jump in population, meaning that booming areas such as Alberta or the GTA's suburbs do not benefit from the principle of representation by population.

"The Conservative party did make a commitment in the last election to correct the representational imbalance or inequity in the country and it's a commitment that we intend to keep," Van Loan said yesterday.

A government source who was briefed on the legislation said the Tory bill envisions periods of adjustment, meaning that every 10 years there would be a legislated correction to the number of seats in the Commons.

Based on projected population growth, Ontario would receive 10 more seats by 2014, the first period of adjustment. The bill proposes that the process be repeated in 2024 and 2034. In 27 years, Ontario would have 136 Commons seats.


"Almost all of that will be in the GTA, so we'll go from about 40 to 70 seats in that region," said the source.

If the bill passes through the House, the number of MPs from the GTA could equal the number of MPs from Quebec, Canada's second-largest province.

"I can tell you in my riding, which is a fast-growing suburban, 905-area riding that, man, our population base has exploded," said Liberal MP Garth Turner (Halton). "In an area like mine I've got as many as three times as many electors as some other ridings, so from that point of view it makes absolute sense to do it."

While the country's makeup is changing from rural to urban, Ottawa must ensure electoral changes aren't "disenfranchising" rural areas.

"It's a delicate balance," he said. "I hope we've got the independent, non-political, arms-length process to determine the new boundaries."

At Queen's Park, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Marie Bountrogianni had no critique on the federal government's proposal, but noted that the province will be voting in a referendum on proportional representation in October that would see the provincial seat count rise to 129 from 107.

Ontario will remain underrepresented in the federal Parliament because of constitutional provisions that protect smaller provinces in the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada. For example, the Constitution says no province can have fewer seats than it had in 1986 and no province can have fewer seats in the House than it has in the Senate.

NDP Leader Jack Layton said his party supports the principles in the legislation, though it has not been consulted or briefed on the bill.

"We think that the occasion should be seized to bring in proportional representation at the same time and that would help to deal with the under-representation of regions, of people who vote and don't see their votes translated into seats," Layton said.

The bill is part of a package of democratic reform initiatives. Yesterday, Van Loan announced legislation to include two more advance voting days in the lead-up to a general election. He said allowing voters to cast ballots on the two Sundays before election day will help reverse the decline in voter turnout.

He said the government would take a piecemeal approach to amending the Canada Election Act because it doesn't want a situation where the opposition defeats a sweeping omnibus bill because it doesn't like one piece of it.

With files from Robert Benzie
 
In three decades Quebec could have many more seats than now. Alberta will also have more seats as well.
 
Interesting, but most of these new seats will be in the suburban ex-urban belt so it is more power to the suburbs not the inner cities. Canada is and increasing is becoming a suburban, not urban population.
 
That may be true, but some people may argue that their suburb is in fact, not a suburb, and is actually the nucleus of its own Greater (insert suburb name here) Area.

More seriously, the suburbs may start to urbanize more and take on more urban characteristics, and I think, more urban attitudes. There are some GTA suburbs that are slowly starting to head in this direction.
 
Interesting, but most of these new seats will be in the suburban ex-urban belt so it is more power to the suburbs not the inner cities. Canada is and increasing is becoming a suburban, not urban population.


Suburbanization is the first step to urbanization. - The suburbs use to be rural areas 40 years ago.


Downtown toronto was a suburb/farm 300 Years ago. A couple of houses and some lawn & goats
 
Also the past couple of elections the GTA is increasing voting as more or less a sinlge block vs the 416/905 split in the 1990s.
 
That might have just been coincidence. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue, esp. in the next election at both the federal and provincial level. 905 voted Liberal in the last provincial election because the Harris/Eves government was being tossed out of office--it was pretty wildly unpopular for the unending series of screw-ups we had from the 'Common Sense' Revolution (hydro privatization debacle, Walkerton, etc.). I can see many 905 ridings returning to the Progressvie Conservative blue with the more centrist Mr. Tory as their leader.

I'm not sure whether Harper will make inroads in Toronto. I think it might be a cold day in hell before Reform/Conservatives has any significant presence in Toronto, even the 905.
 
Tory bill unfair to Ontario, McGuinty charges
Formula would cost seats, Premier says
BRIAN LAGHI AND KAREN HOWLETT

With a report from Bill Curry

May 18, 2007

OTTAWA, TORONTO -- Ontario will be shortchanged in House of Commons seats by federal legislation introduced last week to bring fast-growing provinces up to par, Premier Dalton McGuinty said yesterday.

The bill put forward by the Conservative government would ensure that the number of British Columbians and Albertans necessary to elect a member of Parliament would approximate the national average, but Ontario would remain under-represented.

"It leaves us scratching our heads and wondering why we've been left out of a solution," Mr. McGuinty said last night.

The legislation is written in such a way that Quebec's ratio of voters to MPs becomes the benchmark. But any provinces larger than Quebec - Ontario is the only one - would not enjoy the full benefits. According to his government's numbers, in 2021 Ontario's share of the national population will hit 40.4 per cent while its share of seats will be 35.6 per cent, an under-representation of 4.8 per cent. The Ontario under-representation in 2011 is projected at 4.3 per cent. By contrast, the under-representation of B.C. and Alberta will disappear between those years.

Mr. McGuinty said he plans to enlist the support of all Ontario MPs to urge Ottawa to instill fairness into the system.

His concerns come in the wake of legislation unveiled by the federal government last week - changes the Conservatives promised in the last election. The plan would eventually add 22 seats to the House of Commons, all of them in Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta. Ontario would get 10, B.C. seven and Alberta five. Those seats would probably come into play around 2014.

Government House Leader Peter Van Loan, who is the minister responsible for democratic reform, said last night that Ontario will be much better off under the government's proposal than if the formula for apportioning seats remains the same.

Under the current formula, Ontario would receive an extra four seats, while Alberta would get one and British Columbia two. No other provinces would get an increase under either formula.

"Certainly, the bottom line is Ontario does far better under this formula than the current formula," Mr. Van Loan said.

However, the legislation would give every province, with the notable exception of Ontario, enough ridings to match the size of their population. For example, by 2011, Ontario will have 35.2 per cent of the seats and 39.4 per cent of the population, compared with Quebec, which will have 22.7 per cent of the seats and 23 per cent of the population.

No province, save Ontario, will have a gap of more than one percentage point between their seat allotment and their share of the national population.

Mr. Van Loan acknowledged that Ontario is under-represented, but said the government's solution is better than the status quo. "Alberta and B.C. move basically to representation by population. Ontario doesn't go all the way to representation by population, but they get a lot closer than under the existing formula."

The under-representation of Ontario is not a new issue. In 2001, 38 per cent of Canadians lived in Ontario, but the province had 34.4 per cent of the federal ridings, leaving it with 3.6 per cent fewer seats than people.

The changes have also caused controversy in Quebec, where the seat totals are not expected to change.

All three parties in Quebec's National Assembly unanimously adopted a motion this week calling on the House of Commons to back down on the measures outlined in the democratic reform legislation.

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe also went on the attack yesterday, accusing Prime Minister Stephen Harper of reducing Quebec's political clout in an effort to appease members of the Conservative base who opposed the government's recognition of Quebec as a nation.

"The Quebec ministers in this government have done nothing to defend the political clout of 'their' nation," Mr. Duceppe said.

Conservative ministers responded by noting Quebec will always be guaranteed a minimum of 75 MPs and took a shot at Mr. Duceppe's short-lived run for the leadership of the Parti Québécois.

"When it comes to defending Quebec's interests, I think they are very well served," Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon responded in the House.

Mr. Harper was not in the Commons yesterday.

Bill C-56

First reading, May 11, 2007

Subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867 is replaced by the following:

51(1) The number of members of the House of Commons and the representation of the provinces therein shall, on the completion of each decennial census, be readjusted by such authority, in such manner, and from such time as the Parliament of Canada provides from time to time, subject and according to the following rules:

1. There shall be assigned to each of the provinces a number of members equal to the number obtained by dividing the total population of the provinces by the electoral divisor and by dividing the population of each province by the quotient so obtained, counting any remainder in excess of 0.50 as one after the latter division.

2. If the number of members assigned to a province by the application of rule 1 and section 51A is less than the total number assigned to that province on the date of the coming into force of the Constitution Act, 1985 (Representation), there shall be added to the number of members so assigned such number of members as will result in the province having the same number of members as were assigned on that date.

3. If the number of members assigned to a province is not increased by the application of rule 2 or section 51A and its population is less than that of the most populous province whose number of members is increased thereby, there shall be added to the number of members assigned to that province such number of members as will cause its electoral quotient -- obtained by dividing the population of the province by the number of members assigned to it -- to be as close as possible to the electoral quotient of that more populous province without being below it.

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION FOR ALL?

The distribution of seats throughout Canada's provinces and territories is being adjusted in response to a growing population. While it's improving the balance in Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, the situation in Ontario is getting worse.
 
Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe also went on the attack yesterday, accusing Prime Minister Stephen Harper of reducing Quebec's political clout in an effort to appease members of the Conservative base who opposed the government's recognition of Quebec as a nation.
I must say that I used to have a modicum of respect for this separatist, but I'm finding him increasingly flippant and desperate these days.
 
So basically the plan is there simply to add Conservative seats rather than to solve any under-representation. Saying it is better than an existing formula is nuts... the current formula would give Ontario 57% of the new seats, and the new formula would give Ontario 45% of the new seats.
 
Everyone: My question here is if new districts/ridings are created does another area lose like the USA with its fixed amount of congressional seats-435 to be exact? If those districts/ridings are indeed new-Toronto could gain big-time clout in Canada's Parliament. LI MIKE
 
Everyone: My question here is if new districts/ridings are created does another area lose like the USA with its fixed amount of congressional seats-435 to be exact? If those districts/ridings are indeed new-Toronto could gain big-time clout in Canada's Parliament. LI MIKE
The idea would be that the House of Commons would have more seats, so no area would lose any seats per se, but could lose as a percentage.
 

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