GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[nfitz]

So where the Lakeshore and Stouffville lines are concurrent with the Ontario line, then we'd have up to 19 GO trains per hour per direction and 40 Ontario Line trains per hour per direction. And let's assume 1 VIA train per hour per direction (probably higher some hours). So that's 120 total trains an hour. Or a train every 30 seconds, on average. If you are somewhere where you can hear the trains running in the daytime, then silence will be rarer than hearing a train.

There's no way Metrolinx can get to these frequencies with 3 crew member trains. The staffing costs would bankrupt them.

I'd assume that the plan would be that once they start looking more like subway trains and subway frequencies, to get to one-person crews, and fare inspectors, etc.

Of course this would require regulatory changes.

 

[Willybru21]

I'd assume that the plan would be that once they start looking more like subway trains

No the plan intended to use our existing coaches and electric engines. The screenshots of the documents above even show the train lengths and how many diesel and electric engines will be pulling trains on certain lines.

 

[nfitz]

No this is the plan using our existing coaches and electric engines.

You've got the numbers closer than hand, but I'd be really surprised if there's enough existing coaches to do that type of service on the main 5 lines - even with the much shorter trains.

And what's the lifespan on the coaches? The oldest ones will be 50 years soon. The bi-level fleet is only going to shrink from now on.

I'd think that there has to be an EMU option in the pipeline to start providing some of this service sooner than later.

Great work though! You should make sure that when the media (and non-media like blogTO) pick this up, that they credit it you (and your source) for putting it together!

 

[crs1026]

None of those numbers are a surprise - but completion of the capital program does not imply that there will immediately be demand or peak service frequencies operated as of that date. Those numbers will likely reflect 2040 or even 2050 levels. Lots of time to procure equipment snd modify operating practices.
It’s certainly impressive just how far we have come with GO since 1967…. The thought that we might reach max capacity on the central Toronto rail infrastructure never seemed posdible before, but here we are, give or take a couple decades.

- Paul

- Paul

 

[reaperexpress]

Developments being proposed near Metrolinx-owned rail corridors listed on the Toronto AIC page have noise studies that show the current planned amount of train movements per day on each line. (I was not the one to notice this but I’ll happily pass it along):
View attachment 614963View attachment 614964View attachment 614965View attachment 614966View attachment 614967View attachment 614968View attachment 614969

I also made a diagram listing the daytime numbers (0700-2300) and how frequent departures would be if they were averaged out over the 16 hour period. For simplicities sake I have assumed every train is running revenue between these hours, that obviously will not be the case but it would be impossible for me to pick out which of them would be non-revenue:View attachment 614987
The AIC sources are also listed here but I believe every development proposal within a few hundred metres of a rail corridor would have these listed in their noise studies.

Great diagrams as always, but it's important to remember that this is a noise study not a service plan. So it is not telling you Metrolinx's best guess of service, it's providing their best case scenario, because that's the worst case scenario for noise. If they end up running less service than advertised the adjacent residents won't complain but if they run more service people they might. Best to share extremely optimistic service estimates to avoid a nuisance for Metrolinx in the future.

 

[ARG1]

This is really damning with regard to level of service on the Milton Line, considering the ridership it achieves despite the paltry level of service.

And I have to stay the Milton trains are absolutely packed these past few weeks (I normally take the 8 am train from Cooksville and the 5:55 pm from Union--been waiting forever for them to add a train in between 5:25 and 5:55, i.e. at 5:40 pm).

The numbers shown here are the same as what Milton has right now. I think the reason for this is because this diagram only accounts for the impact provided by the GO Expansion plan specifically. Whatever the government is cooking up in regards to Milton (specifically that 6B electrification project) is almost certainly considered a separate project from GO Expansion, and thus won't be reflected in these documents.

 

[sixrings]

The numbers shown here are the same as what Milton has right now. I think the reason for this is because this diagram only accounts for the impact provided by the GO Expansion plan specifically. Whatever the government is cooking up in regards to Milton (specifically that 6B electrification project) is almost certainly considered a separate project from GO Expansion, and thus won't be reflected in these documents.

You’re assuming the government is doing anything about Milton. Every year we’re told just wait. It’s all magically happening behind closed doors. But we can’t say anything about it yet. We will be saying the same thing 50 years from now.

 

[nfitz]

It looks like it includes Richmond Hill increases though - full day? I thought Richmond Hill wasn't part of Go Expansion and OnCorridor.

 

[ARG1]

It looks like it includes Richmond Hill increases though - full day? I thought Richmond Hill wasn't part of Go Expansion and OnCorridor.

Its not part of OnCorr (as in they're not electrifying it), but there's nothing about not introducing minor service improvements. Its just that the line isn't getting the full treatment of frequent and electrified service. For what its worth, a train every 2 hours is in line with some of the things I've seen/heard over the years.

 

[sixrings]

It looks like it includes Richmond Hill increases though - full day? I thought Richmond Hill wasn't part of Go Expansion and OnCorridor.

Yes every time someone mentions that Milton needs better service I swear others say what about Richmond hill. Well it’s not even comparable. I’d gladly take all day 30 min service then rush hour only 15 min service.

 

[nfitz]

Its not part of OnCorr (as in they're not electrifying it), but there's nothing about not introducing minor service improvements. Its just that the line isn't getting the full treatment of frequent and electrified service. For what its worth, a train every 2 hours is in line with some of the things I've seen/heard over the years.

I'd say an increase from 10 trains (total) per day to 81 trains a day is a lot more than a minor service improvement! That's at least every 30-minutes all-day both ways (how that's possible without at least some passing tracks I don't know). Perhaps I'm missing something.

Yes every time someone mentions that Milton needs better service I swear others say what about Richmond hill. Well it’s not even comparable. I’d gladly take all day 30 min service then rush hour only 15 min service.

I'm certainly not saying Richmond Hill needs a significant improvement (I really don't see the demand is there south of Richmond Hill GO - especially once the Line 1 extension opens). I'm just surprised at how big the number is! I'm not sure what they are thinking here ... I wonder if using the DMUs might be an option for this line.

Obviously Milton needs significant approval - which is why both Ontario and the Feds are talking about it. But Richmond Hill is, in comparison, low-hanging fruit. Perhaps GO staff think it might help some of them keep their jobs, after ONxpress supplants some of their functions.

 

[asher__jo]

Not sure this would be a good idea. A regional transit agency is probably necessary. It could just be run more transparently and accountably.

I don’t favour this approach but do think it’s a political sell that it would be an improvement over Metrolinx secrecy and hollow consultation.

 

[smallspy]

I'd say an increase from 10 trains (total) per day to 81 trains a day is a lot more than a minor service improvement! That's at least every 30-minutes all-day both ways (how that's possible without at least some passing tracks I don't know). Perhaps I'm missing something.

They can run hourly service as the line stands now, but half-hourly headways would require at least a couple of passing tracks where some don't currently exist.

Dan

 

[crs1026]

It's worth going back to the GO Expansion Business Case before we start assuming increases (which, as noted, have been drawn from noise and other studies whose baselines are by design more conservative than the actual ML plan)

Note the ridership changes that ML is projecting. This does not seem to argue for any all- day enhancement of the Richmond Hill line

Also note the commentary.

The point being..... we can all argue our individual opinions, but if this is ML's plan, this is all they are going to build. Maybe in a decade or two....

- Paul

 

[sixrings]

It's worth going back to the GO Expansion Business Case before we start assuming increases (which, as noted, have been drawn from noise and other studies whose baselines are by design more conservative than the actual ML plan)

Note the ridership changes that ML is projecting. This does not seem to argue for any all- day enhancement of the Richmond Hill line

View attachment 615334

Also note the commentary.

View attachment 615333

The point being..... we can all argue our individual opinions, but if this is ML's plan, this is all they are going to build. Maybe in a decade or two....

- Paul

Are you suggesting a decade or two to fix the Milton line. Yup that makes sense. And let’s add another decade because of cost increases and playing political football.