Getting electrification right
BY
DAVID SHIRRES BSC CENG MIMECHE DEM
4TH JUNE 2018
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Electrification cost challenge
As our accompanying feature “Why electrify?” explains, a diesel-powered bi-mode can never offer the performance, environmental and reduced operating cost benefits offered by electric traction.
This is also the view of Dr Jenifer Baxter, head of engineering at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, who, in a recent press release, stated that it is wrong for the Government to claim that the benefits of electrification can be delivered by bi-mode trains as they “do not provide the required performance or offer the most efficient or environmentally friendly solution”.
However, electrification’s benefits will not be realised unless the industry can convince the Government that it can be delivered at an acceptable cost. This is a significant challenge given that, in its report on the cancellation of electrification projects, the NAO noted that, in addition to the previously mentioned increase in GWML costs, Midland main line electrification costs had increased from £695 to £1,297 million between October 2013 and November 2014. Furthermore, electrification project delays do not inspire confidence in project delivery.
The Railway Industry Association (RIA), however, feels that the industry can and must deliver electrification at a lower cost. Hence, its “Electrification Cost Challenge” initiative is intended to demonstrate that electrification need not be so expensive. This is being led by RIA technical director David Clarke, who advises that RIA considers that electrification remains the optimum technical solution for intensively used railways if it can be delivered at an acceptable cost.
Although much has gone wrong with GWML electrification, David considers that it is not helpful to assign blame, especially as he feels that “the whole industry got it wrong”. The important thing is to recognise the problems and learn lessons as RIA’s electrification cost challenge initiative is doing. Rail Engineer has seen the initial findings of this work, which includes benchmarking and cost saving opportunities.
RIA’s benchmarking includes the electrification of 1,362 stk in Denmark over a twelve-year period and in Germany, the 225 stk Ulm to Lindau electrification, both of which are costing circa £1 million/stk. It would seem that these relatively low costs are the result of a steady rolling programme.
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What went wrong?
Amongst the various investigations into the GWML electrification programme was one by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC). This concluded that Network Rail failed to plan the work properly and its cost estimating was poor. It also noted that Network Rail was unable to explain why there had not been a Transport and Works Act application to avoid a piecemeal approach to the required consents that had delayed the programme.
The committee was also critical of the Department for Transport (DfT) which, it considered, was not an effective client. Furthermore, it found that the DfT had not managed the electrification programme and the associated train procurement as a whole. Thus, rather than being derived from a bottom up programme, the GWML electrification completion date was set by the delivery date for the trains that the DfT had ordered.
The National Audit Office (NAO) report concluded that Network Rail’s original plan was based on over-optimistic assumptions including underestimating the amount of bridge work and overestimating the output of its new ‘factory train’ at 18 piles per shift instead of the average of five achieved in practice.
A key factor not mentioned in these reports was that, when work started on the GWML programme, there had been negligible electrification undertaken in the previous twenty years. As a result, both Network Rail and its contractors had lost key skills and knowledge since the 1994 Heathrow electrification. In addition, there were inevitable inefficiencies associated with the rapid mobilisation of the supply chain for large-scale electrification work.
Britain’s ‘feast and famine’ approach to electrification is illustrated by the graph of UK electrification volumes delivered since 1958. This year, Britain will electrify almost 900 stk, followed by less than 200 stk the following year, after which there are no committed schemes. In contrast, Germany has been electrifying around a steady 200 stk a year for the past 40 years.
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