crs1026
Superstar
Agreed. I think we're going to see a lot of incremental improvements. There are probably quite a few track enhancements beyond the stringing of catenary included in this project, so we will likely see increases in diesel service levels before the electric component even comes online.
Exactly. And we should not assume that the successful bidder will rush out and buy a new fleet. GO has enough equipment today to run 15-minute AWAD on all its lines, at least to the current outlying terminal points. That equipment was performing 15-minute headway service on just about every GO line at peak periods up until Covid. The reason we haven't seen full 2WAD yet is, the necessary amount of track isn't there yet to handle 2-way operation at those headways. So some of these trains are used to run 2-way at hourly headways, because that's all that today's tracks can handle....while the rest don't turn back but instead head to layover yards on arrival at Union.
New equipment may only be ordered at whatever volume is necessitated by current cars reaching end of life. Considering that most of GO's oldest bilevels are already life-extended, newer equipment that isn't life extended may be what gets scrapped first. And, if electrification is phased in, procurement will only need to happen on a pace to match that installation. There will doubtless be some balancing calculation of how many electric locos are procured versus how many new EMU's. But again, that's a careful calculation, not a wholesale replacement of any existing rolling stock. And one EMU matched to 2-3 existing bilevels is possible. It makes poor business sense to discard the existing fleet until it is worn out.
It will be interesting to see if the proponent continues to life-extend the existing bilevels. If they do, that work might be directed to an Alstom facility rather than ONR at North Bay or CAD in Montreal. I wonder how those politics will play out.
- Paul