You're quite correct, if total capacity is at right level; signalling is appropriate and modern and the nominally controlling carrier is fair with any other user.
I'm not sure anyone can count on any of that.
I'm not as pessimistic about that as you are, it would seem.
For all of its faults, at the end of the day Metrolinx is in the same business as VIA - moving passengers - and so their needs from a railway standpoint are very similar. VIA's trains can slot in quite easily between GO's own trains, and do on a regular basis.
Considering the considerable capacity gains that have occured simply by upgrading the signalling on the Weston Sub, I can't see how Metrolinx wouldn't do the same on the Oakville and Kingston Subs. Yes, there will still be a need for more track, but certainly not 5 tracks worth between Don and Scarborough.
Certainly there are indications that ML has already caused some shift in VIA departure times; and we're nowhere near peak levels of conflict.
I'm not sure that's actually correct. Metrolinx certainly had given VIA no issues with their net additions over the past couple of years.
That's more an issue of total track capacity (number of tracks and signals) than dedication of tracks; but also indicates ML is inclined to give its own service priority, should conflict arise.
Well of course they would - that's the whole point of owning the line.
But one can not assume that a "dedicated" line used solely by VIA would also allow dedicated VIA operation. Perhaps if they built a dedicated line on their own property, but that isn't likely to happen if they continue to use, or wish to continue to use, the Kingston, Oakville and Weston Subs.
A dedicated track belonging to VIA avoids this issue.
At a cost, of course. But again it also ignores the question of ownership, which almost certainly wouldn't revert to VIA.
In the LSE space, I imagine peak movements by VIA at 4 per hour (departures every 30m, plus arriving trains); up against GO service at 7 '30 or better on both the LSE and Stouffville services. I think that leaves a lot of room for conflict.
Under the current track and signal conditions, yes, it will be a very, very tight squeeze.
But Metrolinx doesn't seem inclined to keep the track and signal condition as it currently sits. There are completed EAs for a 4th mainline track from Don to Scarborough, and a 3rd mainline from Guildwood to Liverpool, after all.
Kitchener, less so. But you're still looking at the Brampton bottle neck; and even without that, if Windsor service peaks at say 8 trips per day (hourly at a peak time), in conflict with GO service that's hourly to K-W, but 15M or better from Bramalea, plus UP and any freight issues.....
Right now the biggest bottleneck is between Georgetown and Kitchener. Until additional sidings are put into service, they can't even run an hourly service to Kitchener, nevermind thinking of rerouting the Windsor VIA service.
Only once that is taken care of do things like the third track from Mount Pleasant to Georgetown and downtown Brampton really need to be looked after.
I'm certainly open to alternate ways to organize service; and alternate ways to create throughput; the key, in truth is we want/need a hell of a lot more of that than what we have today.
Completely agreed.
Dan