Fly Condos (Empire Communities) - Real Estate -

There's an article in the latest Condo Guide (or was it CondoLife) about Fly's Grand Re-Opening with pics attached.

And I would say it affirms what many have said here, that most of the ppl there were brokers and investors.

IMO this is the last rush of investor/flippers hoping to cash in, perhaps feeling they missed the decade long run-up and thinking it will continue ... :D
 
Ah gotta love all the latecomers who have seemingly missed the following events around the world:

- The disappearance of several prominent US banks
- The drop in GDP globally
- The drop in housing prices globally
- The amount of money being printed globally and injected into this market to artificially inflate it

Go ahead and spend $500+/sq ft in this market...but even, if by chance you can sell it for a 10% gain in 5 years...was it really worth it given what inflation will be sky rocketing too in the near future? I think you're just tying up capital that will be key for survival in this economy.

Plus no windows in the bedroom like someone else said.

It's your choice...but in this market I think patience will pay off.

But hey this is only my opinion. I could be totally wrong. The world might be perfectly fine :)
 
urbandreamer said:
Maybe they're all Chinese insiders dumping US dollars for Toronto condos? :p (Check out latest CG ad for Fly, I'd say 99% of ppl in the ad buying were Chinese/Asians.... fools or smarty pants?)
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you could be right ... they have to dump their US dollars since they weren't willing to buy more US Treasuries in the past several auctions :D
 
Here's the thing. BMO just released their quarterly earnings statement, and while their profits are down 44% they are still in the black. Meaning that Canadian banking was not in as deep into the mortgage backed papers that slaughtered the US. banks. I think we've seen the bottom or are close to the bottom right now. Canada's economic recovery will be heavily influenced by the US due to our close trading relations, so the recovery will be slow and extended for longer than normal. However I don't think that we are headed to another "cliff" so to speak.
 
cdr108 said:
There's an article in the latest Condo Guide (or was it CondoLife) about Fly's Grand Re-Opening with pics attached.

And I would say it affirms what many have said here, that most of the ppl there were brokers and investors.

IMO this is the last rush of investor/flippers hoping to cash in, perhaps feeling they missed the decade long run-up and thinking it will continue ... :D
Click to expand...

Why must you be so negative? Some people might be buying these condos because they actually want to live in it and this is an exciting time for them. Just because you buy a condo through a broker, it doesn't mean that you are an "investor". Also, if these condos turn out to be a good investment instead of the "doomsday" that you are predicting, will you apologize to all the people who missed out because of your bad advice/sarcasm? I didn't think so
 
Well I'm being forced to eat crow. RBC reported a quarterly loss today, they are the second of the three banks that have reported to have a loss. Scotia I believe was the other, mind you they had reported a loss in the previous quarter and this quarter's loss was less than the previous quarter. Plus RBC is, arguably a much bigger bank than Scotia is. So it seems we have not yet seen the bottom of this great recession.
 
DSC said:
There are TWO FLY threads, maybe they should be merged??
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The original thread was split from one into two, one in real estate, and one in proposals/development. The proposals/development forum is really for talk about buildings (proposed, under construction etc) and the Fly thread there began to drift into a real estate discussion. So the mods split the two.
 
Trebliw8 said:
Why must you be so negative? Some people might be buying these condos because they actually want to live in it and this is an exciting time for them. Just because you buy a condo through a broker, it doesn't mean that you are an "investor". Also, if these condos turn out to be a good investment instead of the "doomsday" that you are predicting, will you apologize to all the people who missed out because of your bad advice/sarcasm? I didn't think so
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Quit being overdramatic - what "doomsday"?
You consider a 20% retracement after 100-125% increase over the past 13 years unreasonable?
Look at historical values and trends for 100 years and one will notice that RE appreciates at 4% annually (that's inflation adjusted).

Ultra low interest rates from the BofC and every other nations' Federal Reserves are trying to keep this bubble afloat, trying to delay recessionary effects in the hopes that the business cycle picks up by then.

If you're buying as an end user, all the power to you.
But I ask you, why go pre-construction (with all the new building unknowns and surprises, delays, cancellations, phantom rents, extra taxes + costs, etc) when you can get more for less with re-sale and live in it now?

In addition, unless you get a confirmed mortgage rate locked until the building closes, I can guarantee you won't see the ultra-low rates we are experiencing now in 5 years.

Will I apologize to all the people who missed out ... sure, but you seem to think you can read my mind and know otherwise.
Personally, at $450-500 PSF (the average price excluding the 400 SF bachelors that were sold at $160K) is a good investment for that area come 5 years, but that's my opinion and you're entitled to yours.
 
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cdr108 said:
Quit being overdramatic - what "doomsday"?
You consider a 20% retracement after 100-125% increase over the past 13 years unreasonable?
Look at historical values and trends for 100 years and one will notice that RE appreciates at 4% annually (that's inflation adjusted).

Ultra low interest rates from the BofC and every other nations' Federal Reserves are trying to keep this bubble afloat, trying to delay recessionary effects in the hopes that the business cycle picks up by then.

If you're buying as an end user, all the power to you.
But I ask you, why go pre-construction (with all the new building unknowns and surprises, delays, cancellations, phantom rents, extra taxes + costs, etc) when you can get more for less with re-sale and live in it now?

In addition, unless you get a confirmed mortgage rate locked until the building closes, I can guarantee you won't see the ultra-low rates we are experiencing now in 5 years.

Will I apologize to all the people who missed out ... sure, but you seem to think you can read my mind and know otherwise.
Personally, at $450-500 PSF (the average price excluding the 400 SF bachelors that were sold at $160K) is a good investment for that area come 5 years, but that's my opinion and you're entitled to yours.
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I'll make you a friendly bet that there won't be a "20% retracement". I'll give you 10:1 odds and you can bet any amount you want....we can use Fly Condos as the benchmark, I have their Opening Day VIP price list. If these Fly condo units drop in value by an average of 20% by the time they are built, I'll gladly bow down to you and call you the real estate god. :)
 
Trebliw8 said:
I'll make you a friendly bet that there won't be a "20% retracement". I'll give you 10:1 odds and you can bet any amount you want....we can use Fly Condos as the benchmark, I have their Opening Day VIP price list. If these Fly condo units drop in value by an average of 20% by the time they are built, I'll gladly bow down to you and call you the real estate god. :)
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Pre-construction condos aren't a proper gage of market values, as it's the best interest of the developer to maintain their price levels when near selling out/construction completion ... resales are better reflection of true market activity.

20% retracement isn't impossible ... in fact, TerraNet just announced in their May 2009 report that as of March 2009, TO re values have already retraced 10% from their peak.

so, if i put $1K down, how will i collect from you? :D
 
cdr108 said:
Pre-construction condos aren't a proper gage of market values, as it's the best interest of the developer to maintain their price levels when near selling out/construction completion ... resales are better reflection of true market activity.

20% retracement isn't impossible ... in fact, TerraNet just announced in their May 2009 report that as of March 2009, TO re values have already retraced 10% from their peak.

so, if i put $1K down, how will i collect from you? :D
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Flaws in your argument: how the heck is the developer able to "maintain the price level" of their condos? That's a neat trick...if the developer can determine the market value of their condos, they should just set the price of their 400 sq ft bachelor to $1Mill and start from there. Also, if this 20% retracement that you are predicting doesn't affect Fly Condos, why the hell are you even mentioning it here in the "Fly Condos" thread?

But if you want to do this bet with resale condos, I'm fine with that. Just choose a building right now and we'll compare the price level gain in 2013. My e-mail is troymurphy1@yahoo.com, we'll keep in touch :)
 
Trebliw8 said:
Flaws in your argument: how the heck is the developer able to "maintain the price level" of their condos? That's a neat trick...if the developer can determine the market value of their condos, they should just set the price of their 400 sq ft bachelor to $1Mill and start from there. Also, if this 20% retracement that you are predicting doesn't affect Fly Condos, why the hell are you even mentioning it here in the "Fly Condos" thread?

But if you want to do this bet with resale condos, I'm fine with that. Just choose a building right now and we'll compare the price level gain in 2013. My e-mail is troymurphy1@yahoo.com, we'll keep in touch :)
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Sure, a developer could set their 400SF bachelor to $1MM but no one would buy.
Alternatively, if one was selling units for $600 PSF at day 1 of launch at pre-construction and then reduced prices to $550 PSF after 1 year, $500 PSF after 1.5 years, etc ... it would undermine consumer confidence bc of deflation.

Do you have realtor access to MLS or something, otherwise how would you track sale prices for individual units?
 
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