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Financial Crisis

We haven't cracked the top ten crash/corrections yet....

1932 86%
1937/38 49.1%
1906/07 48.5%
1929 47.9%
1919/21 46.6%
1901/03 46.1%
1973/74 45.1%
1939/42 40.4%
1916/17 40.1%
1932/33 37.5%

2008 33%


Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at its all time high one year ago on October 9, 2007 when it was just over 14,100 points. Yesterday on October 9, 2008 it closed at just under 8,600 points.

So that's a 40% drop in value in one year, not 33%. I'd say this is pretty significant, and we're not sure if the worst is over yet.

Quite honestly a better index of the economy is the S&P 500. The Dow is only 30 or so top companies' stocks. The S&P indexes the top 500 companies (including all of the Dow companies) on the New York Stock Exchange.

The S&P 500 closed just below 910 points yesterday, and it was at a high of just over 1560 on Oct 10, 2007. The S&P 500 has lost 42% of its value since its high last year.

The US is in a recession with no end in sight. I actually question why the US media focus so much on the Dow, because its a very small index. I'm aware a lot of the US's wealth is concentrated in just a few hands, but the S&P 500 is a far better index of the stock market. Not to mention the Nasdaq, a totally different exchange.

Regarding the Nasdaq, its a more technology oriented exchange (and unlike the New York Stock Exchange, all filings are handled electronically and is far more advanced). On October 10, 2007 the Nasdaq had rebounded to just over 2,800 points (far cry from its 4,700 point high point in February 2000 from which it never recovered after the Dot.Com bust), and now its 1,645. The Nasdaq is down 42% as well from Oct 10, 2007.

Just as a comparison, the Nasdaq is at 1,645 and its all time high point was right at 4,700 points in February 2000. That's a 65% drop from its all time high. And the Nasdaq is part of why we had a "jobless recovery" during the last recession, those companies largely in the technology industry never recovered.
 
Yes, several days have passed - and we did break into the top 10 :p

I was using 14008 as the high (approx) - DOW.

Of course most of the crashes that are on that list were in a different era - different regulatory environment etc. (except 73/74)
 
... and we're not sure if the worst is over yet.

Actually, I was thinking that 8,000 would be about the lowest close - which might come today.... I would not be surprised to see it go a little lower than that - maybe 7,500..... if it closes in on that today - I think I will just close my eyes and do some buying - there are a few things that are of interest (including some index). Problem is the market has moved so fast - I have not finished my wish list, and wish price list :eek:

I do believe that long term - TD and BNS are good buys. Intel also interests me.... Hmmm. they all have a dividend :rolleyes:

These are all very long term plays though.
 
The Nasdaq is not a technology only stock exchange, it just happens to hold most of the high tech companies... And for good reason. The Nasdaq is completely electronic. There aren't traders screaming across an archaic 1700's style floor screaming orders.

It wouldn't seem normal for most tech oriented companies to use the New York Stock Exchange for that very reason. ;)

Actually lots of non-tech companies prefer Nasdaq. There's everything from grain companies to restaurants listed on Nasdaq, its no small exchange.

Plus Nasdaq is based in Midtown Manhattan among the glitz of Times Square. The NYSE is in the boring lower Manhattan area in downtown. ;) How many Americans realize much of their stock isn't traded on Wall Street, but rather in Times Square? LOL

Sorry about the date thing, I didn't really read the date before responding. But the point stands, we're in a credit crisis the US hasn't seen since the Great Depression. The only reason we're not at a depression level right now is because of all the government rules and backing that simply didn't exist before FDR. I'd say FDR's legacy is alive and well today, otherwise we'd have 25% unemployment and a total credit freeze right now. People don't realize how serious the times are, or respect the history of the protections we have in place. All of these banks that failed would have left several million people with no money at this point. Washington Mutual customers, for example, would have had NO MONEY if this were 1929 and they failed. Small businesses and companies that rely on WAMU or any of these other failed banks to cut paychecks would have had NO MONEY to pay their employees what-so-ever. The job losses would have been exponential vs. 2008.

That's why we're not in a depression right now.

Its amazing seeing even modern conservatives support the FDIC and various new deal programs that were lambasted as socialism back in the day.
 
Its amazing seeing even modern conservatives support the FDIC and various new deal programs that were lambasted as socialism back in the day.

Yes, FDIC was a good creation. I would not be surprised to see a FMIC created (mortgage insurance - similar to CMHC).

IMHO (I am definitely not a great fan of insurance myself - and I am also not very strong in this area), The problem with insurance (aka AIG), is that they are going to set premiums to cover the mortgage default insurance, and even if it is rightly assesses the risk... it takes that money and creates an investment pool. During financial crisis like today, financial crisis will likely deflate even a conservative pool - which means you don't have enough when you really need it. Now if the insurer goes bankrupt, the whole thing starts unraveling - as now the insurance is not there - which means that even though it is not on the banks books - the risk falls back to them.
 
I stand at a crossroads in regards to the bailout. The current bailout is too focused on corporate interests and not enough on individual interests.

A bailout would be better served by backing the primary lenders ONLY so that money is available, and then buying out individual mortgages for people who are desperate. The primary lenders must come under government control with strict rules and regulations (essentially this has already happened although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don't originate all loans, just most), and the management of them replaced with a competent team of individuals not focused on just massive profits for themselves, but the bank's health.

We need to let the banks that caused this problem fail, they created the mess. But the government should come in and buy failed mortgages and reset the price to a lower, affordable rate. New banks and community banks should take over and become the new cash cow to stabilize the economy.

This election season is BITTERLY IRONIC for me. I hate the Republicans for what they stand for, I dislike John McCain greatly for his record largely speaking.

But even John McCain has recently said we should bail out individuals. He's almost more socialistic than Barack Obama on this issue, and my eyes about popped out of my head when I heard him say he wanted to spend federal money - gasp - and pay individuals directly and let the banks who got us into this mess fail.

I can't support McCain because of his other policies, but I just can't believe the irony in this election and how poor the Democrats in Congress are managing it. I support bottom-up policies, not top-down policies. I believe buying out individual's loans and letting them pay a fair rate with a new bank is the right way, and bailing out the banks that caused this mess is a bad way to deal with the crisis. At the end of the day some action is better than no action, so unfortunately I agree with those who voted for this bailout as opposed to those who voted against. I just wished our priorities were better and it was bottom-up financing.

On this one issue, I support McCain's way of doing it and I'm against Obama's way. The problem is that I don't believe McCain's rhetoric. He's a deregulator historically speaking and opposes necessary rules, so I suppose he's just saying what feels good at the moment to grab votes.

The bailout was pathetic, and did minimal for individuals. The only good is that it helps keep credit flowing. It was 100% corporate and 100% pork, however.

Its too bad we don't have any real Democrats left with sizeable power. The only real Democrat in Congress seems to be Dennis Kucinich and the Caucus of Progressive Democrats. The CPC isn't large enough to control anything though even though it has an impressive 71 members and controls 16% of Congress.

For Canadians, the CPC is akin to the NDP. But being a two party system it is a caucus within the Democratic party.
 
Aren't there "circuit-breakers" that come into effect at a certain point? They'll freeze trading if things look really bad.

I was referring to a cumulative drop to 7,000 DOW.
"Curcuit breakers" work on a daily basis based on 10%, 20%, 30%.
Hopefully the DOW wouldn't drop from 8,500 to 7,000 in a day ! ! !:eek:
 
Toronto Star - TSX, Dow keep falling

and we keep on going .... :(

***********

Credit crisis sparks another selloff; TSX hard hit by energy stocks

Oct 10, 2008 12:27 PM

Malcolm Morrison
THE CANADIAN PRESS

eb75996341b3a05ce29f7723d5de.jpeg

Traders react to developments at markets around the world in this composite image.

The Toronto stock exchange was down over 300 points late this morning with energy stocks again getting stomped as oil prices continued to retreat and financial stocks moved lower even as the government announced help for Canada's big banks.

New York markets also fell sharply, joining a series of big declines on stock markets around the world, as investors bailed out on continued fears centred on frozen credit.

The main S&P/TSX composite index was down 364.44 points to 9,235.74, well off an earlier deficit of almost 600 points.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is buying up to $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities from the country's banks in an effort to maintain the availability of credit.

"It's very positive," said Kate Warne, Canadian market specialist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.

"The banks are in good shape fundamentally but with the global credit crunch, even the Canadian banks are having difficulty with the source of funding in order to make continued loans and by selling some of their mortgages to the government, that gives them more funds to be available to continue to make loans."

He predicted the measure would spur banks to lower their prime lending rates a further 25 basis points, in line with a Bank of Canada move earlier this week.

Canada's central bank lowered its rate 50 basis points in concert with its international counterparts on Wednesday, but the chartered banks initially responded by lowering theirs only 25 points.

The TSX bank sector was down 0.8 per cent, a big improvement drop of five per cent slide earlier in the session. Royal Bank (TSX: RY) was up 21 cents to $41.61 but CIBC (TSX: CM) slipped $1.11 to $49.39.

Flaherty and other finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations meet in Washington to address the financial meltdown.

New York's Dow Jones industrials was also off early lows, down 356.59 points to 8,222.6.

The TSX energy sector dropped seven per cent as the November crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange pulled back $6.31 to US$80.28 a barrel as investors believe rapidly slowing economic conditions will curb demand.

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) gave back $4.55 to $48.26 and EnCana Corp. (TSX: ECA) shed $4.09 to $45.80.

The TSX Venture Exchange fell 56.56 to 990.72.

The Canadian dollar continued to lose ground, down 2.92 cents to 84.36 cents US following a 1.78 cent fall even as Statistics Canada reported that the country generated a record number of new jobs last month.

The 107,000 jobs added in September far outpaced the 12,500 expected by economists. But almost all of the growth – 97,000 jobs – was in part-time work.

The unemployment rate held steady at 6.1 per cent.

New York's Nasdaq composite index lost 55 points to 1,590.12 while the S&P 500 index lost 41.17 points to 868.75.

"Momentum is running against the market and you don't want to get hit by a train," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in New York.

"This is now about market psychology. There's extreme fear and panic out there."

General Electric, the oldest Dow component, reported third-quarter earnings in line with downwardly revised expectations. Profit fell 12 per cent from a year ago to US$4.5 billion while revenue rose 11 per cent to US$47.2 billion.

The global industrial, finance and media conglomerate said that its board has resolved to maintain the dividend at US$1.24 per share at least through next year and its shares rose 18 cents to US$19.19.

General Motors Corp. said today bankruptcy is still not an option, despite a dramatic stock plunge the day before that sent the automaker's shares to their lowest level in more than 58 years and wiped out nearly one-third of their value. Its shares moved up 18 cents to US$4.94.

And Citigroup Inc. said late Thursday it was suspending its bid to acquire Wachovia Corp., which will be acquired by Wells Fargo & Co. Citigroup shares rose 36 cents to US$13.29 and Wells Fargo added 50 cents to US$27.75.

A stream of selling forced exchanges in Austria, Russia and Indonesia to suspend trading, and those that remained opened were hammered. The 8.2 per cent rout in Australian markets caused traders there to call it "Black Friday."

In Asia, the collapse of Japan's Yamato Life Insurance caused already nervous investors to pull even more money out of the market – the Nikkei 225 fell 9.6 per cent.

Hong Kong's main index fell 7.2 per cent.

London's FTSE 100 index slumped 5.24 per cent while the German DAX was down 6.9 per cent and the Paris CAC-40 fell 9.8 per cent.

The London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, for three-month borrowing in US dollars rose another 0.07 per cent to 4.82 per cent. That's two percentage points higher than a month ago in spite of this week's co-ordinated half-point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and other central banks.
 
Toronto Star - Commodity selloff hammers TSX; dollar suffers record fall

TSX plunges under 9,000

Oct 10, 2008 02:01 PM

Malcolm Morrison
THE CANADIAN PRESS

Big selloffs in energy and metals stocks were mainly responsible for an early afternoon slide that dropped the Toronto Stock Exchange below the 9,000-point mark for the first time since January 2005.

Financial stocks also moved lower even as the government announced help for Canada's big banks.

The S&P/TSX composite index plunged 635.46 points to 8,964.72, joining a series of big declines on stock markets around the world, as investors bailed out on continued fears centred on frozen credit.

The Dow Jones industrials were also hammered, down 481.63 points to 8,097.56.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is buying up to $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities from the country's banks in an effort to maintain the availability of credit.

The Canadian dollar continued to lose ground, down 3.07 cents to cents US following a 1.78 cent fall, reflecting the sharp fall in oil prices and a faltering economy.

The TSX energy sector dropped almost 10 per cent as the November crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange pulled back $8.65 to US$77.94 a barrel as investors believe rapidly slowing economic conditions will curb demand.
 
As hard as it is to believe I think the stockmarket downturn and credit crunch are the pre-cursers. The real issue is how is this going to eat away at the general economy over the next maybe 24 months. Right now the economy in this country is still in a residual boom pattern. We haven't even begun to feel the effect structurally. My fear is that commodity prices, real estate prices, employment and share prices will track gradually lower for several years once the markets calm themselves. Maybe I underestimate the resilience of the economy but it is just so dependent on consumer spending. It is hard to believe that consumers will continue to over spend when every pillar of their financial security is being eroded, and all methods of accessing credit are tightening up. Despite the market plunge we are still in total denial.
 
There are bulls, bears and then there are pigs.....it's a pig market and the banks are leading the way.
 

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