Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[edmundoconnor]

AFAIK, that's 50% the city, 30% the province, and 20% the federal government. And the city's portion is not a plain debt, but is covered by a dedicated property surtax. The city has already started collecting that surtax, even though neither construction nor major design work has started.

The city will have to add yet another surtax if it wants to invest in another transit project; that's hard but not impossible.

When we get into overruns (which of course we will), the province and the federal government will be nowhere to be seen. Add another billion for a more realistic figure, and that's only if subway boosters are willing to save the patient by stopping the subway at STC (thus removing much of what little reason for existence the SSE has). If they are hell bent on going to Sheppard, billion and a half, if not more extra. I will be truly fascinated to see the oratorical gymnastics councillors deploy to justify the extra property tax increase.

 

[Voltz]

Btw, the Malvern Centre link and the Zoo link should be within a close reach. The trunk of Sheppard LRT is already funded, and that funding is independent on the subway.

You would need to get extra funding for a 1-km branch up Neilson to reach Malvern Centre, and about 3 km east of Conlins to reach the Zoo. Once the province comes up with the next wave of transit projects for GTA, and wants the investment to be somewhat spread across the area, those two short links can count as Scarborough portion.

The Sheppard LRT is not going to get built, the subway vote pandering and rhetoric has made it politically impossible. After the next election it will probably be dropped from plans entirely.

 

[Rainforest]

When we get into overruns (which of course we will), the province and the federal government will be nowhere to be seen. Add another billion for a more realistic figure, and that's only if subway boosters are willing to save the patient by stopping the subway at STC (thus removing much of what little reason for existence the SSE has). If they are hell bent on going to Sheppard, billion and a half, if not more extra. I will be truly fascinated to see the oratorical gymnastics councillors deploy to justify the extra property tax increase.

The TYSSE project is about same length as SSE. TYSSE did overrun by about $600 million; most of them were built into the original budget as a contingency fund.

So, while SSE might overrun, it won't be as much as you suggest.

If we expect huge, 30% to 50% overruns on every transit construction project, then we basically can't build anything; even DRL.

The Sheppard LRT is not going to get built, the subway vote pandering and rhetoric has made it politically impossible. After the next election it will probably be dropped from plans entirely.

Who knows; if PC win the next provincial election, they might be tempted to drop SE LRT. On the other hand, I am pretty sure that they will not fund the 2-nd subway into Scarborough, and the city will not pick that cost either.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Sheppard will remain a stub until there's the eventual need for a longer subway on Sheppard, perhaps mid-Century.

 

[Hopkins123]

Sheppard will remain a stub until there's the eventual need for a longer subway on Sheppard, perhaps mid-Century.

The density to support a subway already exists. They saw the need for a Sheppard Subway way back in 1985, yet now we must wait another 35 years?

Mid-century? That's a joke right?:

 

[LNahid2000]

The density to support a subway already exists. They saw the need for a Sheppard Subway way back in 1985, yet now we must wait another 35 years?

Mid-century? That's a joke right?:

Wow, a few ~15 storey apartment buildings. Residential lands usually don't generate much subway ridership while employment lands do.

 

[drum118]

The density to support a subway already exists. They saw the need for a Sheppard Subway way back in 1985, yet now we must wait another 35 years?

Mid-century? That's a joke right?:

Have you every walk Sheppard and have a real look as to what there now??

Have you looked at the ridership numbers to see if it qualify for an BRT, let alone an LRT or subway.

Where does the ridership fall off that doesn't justify RT past that point??

Have you looked at ridership as to how many are getting on/off at stops between major crossroads??

Do you realize that it cost $17 dollars to carry a rider on the Sheppard Line compare to $1.25 city wide??

Until you do your homework on the above questions and prove me wrong, there is no need for a subway from day one and most likely not before 2050. Unless you are moving 10,500 pphpd off peak and 15,000 at peak, an BRT or LRT is the way to go. I prefer LRT as it an operation cost saver over BRT hands down compare to the cost of building an BRT over an LRT.

I have videos of Sheppard E from end to end and it doesn't support your claim to density. I also shoot various projects up there and those photos will show the same thing. They are all on my site.

Its all about having roads clear of transit so traffic can use it space that empty 50% of the time and force people to be a rat by traveling underground at huge cost in everyone tax pocket.

I can say I have walked most of Sheppard E at various times over the years as well driven it, but mostly on transit.

 

[CDL.TO]

It's a mistake in rapid transit planning to think that the primary justification for a route is the density immediately adjacent to the corridor.

When around 70% of travellers access rapid transit by connecting from local transit, a corridor could have high adjacent density and still not be justified, or low adjacent density and still make sense.

The lowrise single-family detached built form around Summerhill station doesn't mean that the Yonge Line isn't justified. The highrises around Bayview station doesn't mean that the Sheppard Line is justified.

The impact of a rapid transit line is felt for many kilometres around a corridor. As such, rapid transit planning needs to look at things from a broad perspective.

 

[Hopkins123]

^ Noted. However I think you've missed my point. I'm not advocating for a subway across the whole length of Sheppard, just the originally planned Downsview to Agincourt stretch.

According to http://www.torontocycling.org/population-density-by-ward.html, the densest population centres outside of Old Toronto are concentrated in Wards 23, 33, 39 and 40 (the most densely populated areas of Scarborough and North York respectively). The originally planned Sheppard subway far as Agincourt would directly intercept all of that.

Trying to service all of the Sheppard corridor with any one single form of transit is impossible to do. The Sheppard East LRT is not free either, it costs $1.5 billion last estimate. That's enough for at the very least a three stop extension of the subway to Warden Avenue.

 

[Rainforest]

Do you realize that it cost $17 dollars to carry a rider on the Sheppard Line compare to $1.25 city wide??

Do you realize that $17 is the subsidy for "daily rider", i.e. for 2 rides, plus the cost of debt service? Whereas $1.25 is the subsidy for the average single ride, with no cost of debt service added.

We have to compare apples to apples.

Sheppard subway in its present form may be a bad idea, and it is certainly a money loser, but cunning subway-haters invented a statistical trick to make it look a lot worse than it really is.

Using the standard accounting for transit operations, that measures the subsidy for a single ride and adds no provisions for debt service, the subsidy per a Sheppard subway ride should be somewhere around $5.

 

[Rainforest]

^ Noted. However I think you've missed my point. I'm not advocating for a subway across the whole length of Sheppard, just the originally planned Downsview to Agincourt stretch.

According to http://www.torontocycling.org/population-density-by-ward.html, the densest population centres outside of Old Toronto are concentrated in Wards 23, 33, 39 and 40 (the most densely populated areas of Scarborough and North York respectively). The originally planned Sheppard subway far as Agincourt would directly intercept all of that.

Trying to service all of the Sheppard corridor with any one single form of transit is impossible to do. The Sheppard East LRT is not free either, it costs $1.5 billion last estimate. That's enough for at the very least a three stop extension of the subway to Warden Avenue.

Sheppard East LRT is about $1.2 billion, while the latest estimate for extending the subway from Don Mills to just Vic Park was $1 billion. So, it may be enough to go to Vic Park but not to Warden.

If Scarborough prefers a subway extension just to Vic Park, instead of the whole Sheppard East LRT, then perhaps it can be arranged. But that would mean no improvements at all for the areas east of McCowan.

If the LRT is build on Sheppard, then people living east of McCowan can use the LRT for a faster ride to the Bloor-Danforth subway's new terminus at Sheppard. I suspect that there will be more riders transferring to the Bloor-Danforth subway than those continuing along Sheppard. If the LRT is cancelled, then all those riders will be left with no improvements at all, and the short Sheppard subway extension that occurs much further west will be of no help for them.

So, it is up to the Scarborough residents and their councillors to decide what they prefer; but the LRT may be of greater value in the new network since it gets connected to both the BD extension and the SmartTrack station at Agincourt.

 

[drum118]

Do you realize that $17 is the subsidy for "daily rider", i.e. for 2 rides, plus the cost of debt service? Whereas $1.25 is the subsidy for the average single ride, with no cost of debt service added.

We have to compare apples to apples.

Sheppard subway in its present form may be a bad idea, and it is certainly a money loser, but cunning subway-haters invented a statistical trick to make it look a lot worse than it really is.

Using the standard accounting for transit operations, that measures a subsidy for single ride and no provisions for debt service, the subsidy per a Sheppard subway ride should be somewhere around $5.

Makes no different how you cut it, Sheppard is a huge drain on TTC bottom line that is taking away service that is badly needed city wide. It also taking money way from below the line projects.

I am not a subway hater, but one for putting the right technology in the right place and subway not needed at this time nor any time soon. I have a subway on my master long range transit plan.

The biggest problem is that most people can't see anything different other than bus and subway as well roads being use for cars only.

 

[drum118]

^ Noted. However I think you've missed my point. I'm not advocating for a subway across the whole length of Sheppard, just the originally planned Downsview to Agincourt stretch.

According to http://www.torontocycling.org/population-density-by-ward.html, the densest population centres outside of Old Toronto are concentrated in Wards 23, 33, 39 and 40 (the most densely populated areas of Scarborough and North York respectively). The originally planned Sheppard subway far as Agincourt would directly intercept all of that.

Trying to service all of the Sheppard corridor with any one single form of transit is impossible to do. The Sheppard East LRT is not free either, it costs $1.5 billion last estimate. That's enough for at the very least a three stop extension of the subway to Warden Avenue.

The LRT is free since Toronto is paying next to nothing for it in the first place.

TTC can't see your extension because of cost it as well ridership. They do see it some what if the the Yonge Line goes to RHC as it will allow faster access to the line than doing the loop for their work crews.

Ridership falls off just before Kennedy and more so Warden.

If your extension was connected to Spadina Line to allow interline service, it makes sense today.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Before any subway made their debut, terminating suburban buses would have fed the streetcars at the outer most loops. Usually at the border of the old city of Toronto. Those "feeder" routes contributed many of the passengers, as they still do to this day. The Line 4 (Sheppard) doesn't have many "feeder" routes that "terminate" at the stations.

Here's the Vaughan loop, located south of St. Clair at Bathurst Street.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The LRT is free since Toronto is paying next to nothing for it in the first place.

TTC can't see your extension because of cost it as well ridership. They do see it some what if the the Yonge Line goes to RHC as it will allow faster access to the line than doing the loop for their work crews.

Ridership falls off just before Kennedy and more so Warden.

If your extension was connected to Spadina Line to allow interline service, it makes sense today.

What is the ridership east of Kennedy?

The ENTIRE Sheppard Subway is projected to have 7,000 peak point ridership. That is very, very, very low usage for a subway. We typically only see usage that low at or near terminal stations, not at the busiest point of the line.

So for ridership to drop off at Kennedy, when ridership was already very low is horrible.