Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Electrify]

Did you all already forget how the cost of Transit City kept escalating, and escalating, and escalating?

It's the nature of the beast with Transit.

Mississauga's BRT has kept escalating in cost as well, with the City on the hook for the increases.

This is NOT news guys. Gimme a break.

I'm actually surprised Sheppard was built on budget. But it (and TYSSE) would be a better guide for the BD extension than TC or the Mississauga BRT because the TTC has experience building subways, so their cost estimates should be decently accurate, in theory, whereas they don't have experience building LRT (since we don't have any) and Mississauga has no experience building BRT.

Unfortunately that doesn't bode well for the Hurontario LRT since Mississauga and Brampton have built nothing of the kind.

Cost overruns are one thing, but when we don't even have the money in place to even start the line, we have a problem.

Though I doubt it, I hope that if they don't have the funding in place, they just go back to the light rail plan.

Stintz is playing a dangerous game. She pushed forward with this subway in hopes the province would throw more money into it. That does not seem to have materialized, so now she needs a plan B to figure out where the money will come from or else she looks like a lame duck.

 

[JayBeeGooner]

Rob Ford: our bastion of taxpayers dollars. Only had wasted $200,000,000 and counting....

I don't like Rob Ford, but Stinz, De Baeremeaker, and the other 26 councillors are to blame for this fiasco. Stinz re-opened the debate purely for political gain after spending so much time wresting the issue from Ford.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I don't like Rob Ford, but Stinz, De Baeremeaker, and the other 26 councillors are to blame for this fiasco. Stinz re-opened the debate purely for political gain after spending so much time wresting the issue from Ford.

The Scarborough Subway extension wasn't included in the $200,000,000 total.

 

[scar_resident]

Theoretically though when it comes time to do Hurontario Metrolinx will much of the same Project Management team they used for the Eglinton, Finch, and Sheppard LRT projects.

But I do wonder how much contact the Mississauga BRT team had with OC Transpo planners and engineers. Those guys have Transitway construction down to a science.

Anyways back to Scarborough: I still think the best-case scenario at this point is the Feds don't come up with the money, and Metrolinx comes back to the City and says "we will give you the extra funding on the condition that you approve the recommended revenue tools that Metrolinx has put forward". The revenue tools vote was an embarrassment, and this would be a good opportunity for Metrolinx to get Toronto's support on the matter, even if there is a bit of coercion involved.

Considering that the current SRT runs through a federal riding held by a conservative MP, she won the riding from the incumben liberal who was there for almost 3 decades, I would be surprised if the feds did not come up with some money. This was a big win for the Conservatives in 416 terriroty in the 2011 election.

 

[datamouse]

When the question of cost overruns comes up the question that should be asked is what was the case with Sheppard and with the Spadina extension?

 

[Palma]

Considering that the current SRT runs through a federal riding held by a conservative MP, she won the riding from the incumben liberal who was there for almost 3 decades, I would be surprised if the feds did not come up with some money. This was a big win for the Conservatives in 416 terriroty in the 2011 election.

But people associate transit with municipal government not federal so i doubt it will affect who will win the riding in the next federal election

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

datamouse:

Neither line had cost overruns, but I believe the final cost estimate used was taken from a design point that's much further down the line than the proposed BD extension, which hasnt gone though EA yet.

AoD

 

[M II A II R II K]

What we still don’t know about the Scarborough subway plan

http://metronews.ca/voices/ford-for...nt-know-about-the-scarborough-transit-debate/

.....

After Toronto city council’s vote last week to move forward with a plan for a subway extension to Scarborough, there’s been no real word on what might happen next. Maybe we’ll learn more after the provincial byelections are over and the politicking is done. Maybe we’ll learn more in the fall. We’re waiting. But it’s important to stress that this subway is far from a done deal.

.....

 

[k10ery]

datamouse:

Neither line had cost overruns, but I believe the final cost estimate used was taken from a design point that's much further down the line than the proposed BD extension, which hasnt gone though EA yet.

AoD

What do you mean? We already know since 2010 that TYSSE station construction will be at least 30-50% over the cost estimate. The TTC can claim it is on budget because they built a provision for $400 million of cost overruns INTO THE BUDGET. But I doubt even this will be enough. The projected $2.6 billion was for escalated funds based on a 2008 start. With the delay in ground-breaking, and the subsequent delays in tunneling and station construction timelines, that number is surely too low. This project is over budget. We just don't know how much yet.

 

[nfitz]

What do you mean? We already know since 2010 that TYSSE station construction will be at least 30-50% over the cost estimate.

There's no evidence of that. A contingency in the budget is 100% normal practice. There's always going to be stuff (the construction accident for example). Yes, it started a bit late, but that's pretty usual as well ... and perhaps not going to hurt, because of the drop in the construction price index over a couple of those years ... look at what most of the big construction contracts got awarded to compared to the engineers estimate!

 

[k10ery]

In other words, there are always cost overruns, so they always pad the budget to offset the lowball cost estimates. We're in agreement!

 

[nfitz]

In other words, there are always cost overruns, so they always pad the budget to offset the lowball cost estimates. We're in agreement!

Not in agreement at all. Cost estimates aren't lowball ... if they were, the typical budget contingency wouldn't cover them.

Besides, aren't the current estimates highball estimates, given that the bids have generally come in below estimates?

 

[gweed123]

In other words, there are always cost overruns, so they always pad the budget to offset the lowball cost estimates. We're in agreement!

Yes. These are generally accounted for through a Risk Management Plan. You list potential issues, the likelihood of them occurring, and the potential impact should they occur, and assign a dollar figure to that impact. The end result is a contingency fund.

Pretty standard practice if you ask me.

 

[rbt]

In other words, there are always cost overruns, so they always pad the budget to offset the lowball cost estimates. We're in agreement!

There are always unexpected expenses BUT you can include "unknown" into your budget in advance by setting aside some amount of money.

It's not a cost overrun until you go past the agreed upon budget. In this case, if construction ends and there is still money in the trust account, then it's within budget.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Typically they account for a 30% contingency IIRC. This would be included in any budget presented to councillers.