News   Jul 15, 2024
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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

Toronto will be adding another million people within the next 20 years. For every three of us on the roads today, they'll be another one added by 2040. Nevermind the growth of the 905 as well, directing even more people onto Toronto roads. It's hard not to imagine congestion on Scarborough streets not getting substantially worse under those conditions. Much of the road network is already gridlocked today

Yes, but the density will be added in pockets; not a uniform % growth in every block. Scarborough streets should be mostly OK.

Also we really oughta discuss how the TTC's bus fleet is substantially underfunded to handle passenger growth into the next decade. These subway network improvements won't matter if we don't have the buses to get people into the stations in the first place. This is a lot more involved than going to your local bus dealership and buying a few extra buses. We'll need a lot more garage space, which will take substantial time to fund and plan. Had we gone about this intelligently, all of this would've been rolled into the plans for a Scarborough BRT network.

Th bus fleet concerns are real, and not just with respect to the Scarborough network. That said, the subway extension does help somewhat; fewer buses will be needed if the average bus trip is shorter. Some buses are used today to run express bus service between STC and Kennedy, just because SRT can't handle the demand. That won't be the case when the subway opens. Buses connecting to the future Sheppard & McCowan terminus will have shorter routes than today, thus the same bus can make more trips per hour.
 
Remember, were starting from scratch. There's a chance this could be cut down to STC to save time and money.

Nothing is guaranteed until it is well into the construction. But, if they are going to start soon and have the launch shaft at Sheppard, then almost any cost advantage of dropping the Sheppard station will be gone.
 
Does any of LRT projects proposed in Scarborough have a benefit to cost ratio significantly better than in the 30’s ?

I wondered that myself. It's getting hard to financially justify anything bigger than a Mississauga/Ottawa style BRT (fully grade separated); which may have the best performance for customers too
 
I wondered that myself. It's getting hard to financially justify anything bigger than a Mississauga/Ottawa style BRT (fully grade separated); which may have the best performance for customers too

If the benefit ratios for apparently useful projects are low, could that mean not all benefits are counted? Or, some of the counted benefits are underestimated?
 
If the benefit ratios for apparently useful projects are low, could that mean not all benefits are counted? Or, some of the counted benefits are underestimated?

Maybe someone can convince me otherwise, but BCA numbers, at least in government, just seem like utter hogwash to me. Nor do I believe that the benefits of pubic infrastructure can be summarized in purely financial terms. Especially not when that infrastructure will be around for centuries
 
If the benefit ratios for apparently useful projects are low, could that mean not all benefits are counted? Or, some of the counted benefits are underestimated?

There are numerous issues with Metrolinx Business cases. Not the least of which is they change how they work on every one so it's nearly impossible to take 10 business cases and simply order by most useful.

That said, we've had recurring arguments over TTC operations budget subsidy for nearly 20 years. That says quite a bit about what many in the public believe is the true benefit of high-cost suburban infrastructure, at that particular time of year at least.

Trunk systems typically exist because they're cheaper than running individual pieces while obtaining the same level of revenue; savings with scale and all that. Few Metrolinx proposals are expecting any type of savings; GO RER being about the only one expected to reduce the cost per-trip.

In 2028, if Ontario Line, SSE, and Eglinton West actually get built we'll be hunting for about a 10% tax increase (or $1 fare increase) to put service on them.
 
Especially not when that infrastructure will be around for centuries

The only piece around for centuries is the land acquisition; which underground structures actually minimize.

Every single other piece, including all the concrete, wiring, etc. will be rebuilt several times during that period at an even higher cost than the original build since now it's in service.

NY has a $5B/year maintenance budget and continues to fall behind due to substantial under spending.
 
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I think 40% is the new Federal infrastructure fund offer; asking for 40% instead of 33% is reasonable.

Whether they get the Feds on-board at all is a separate question. I strongly suspect that the Feds will stay away from any political debates, and will fund all provincial requests as long as they a) conform to all formal rules, and b) the total is within that province's share.

If the OL proposal cannot conform to the rules .. that would certainly be a problem, and can kill the project or delay till the government changes.

On one hand, I think your point of view makes total sense. On the other hand, I can definitely envision a scenario where the feds just sit on their hands, and do nothing when (if?) the request for money comes in, because:

1. Comments from federal ministers clearly indicate that they don't view these plans favourably
2. Queen's Park has certainly been acting in bad faith with regard to their request for funding. Specifically, they've been berating the feds for not providing funds, while also refusing to formally ask for funds. Playing those games is not how you get a federal partner on board
3. The historic unpopularity of the Ford government in Toronto means they can certainly get away with refusing funding without taking a political hit.

I agree that the feds won't wade into the transit debate in Toronto, however they don't need to get involved in the debate to deny funding. They just have to do nothing.

In all, I don't know what to expect regarding federal funds. We shall see in time.
 
Maybe someone can convince me otherwise, but BCA numbers, at least in government, just seem like utter hogwash to me. Nor do I believe that the benefits of pubic infrastructure can be summarized in purely financial terms. Especially not when that infrastructure will be around for centuries
Your view appears to be the predominant one in Toronto. It certainly explains why Toronto is what it is. That it’s impossible to perform a data-driven economic analysis of any particular transit project, so we have to go with the dictates of populism, gut instincts, and cocktail napkin “plans”. That’s different from the Australian approach, which explicitly requires BCA for all projects, and in some cases like freeway tunnels relies on private companies subject to capital markets discipline to finance, build and operate infrastructure. For example, here’s NSW’s BCA outline.


If you haven’t lived in Sydney, you’ll have to take my word that rational transit planning and delivery is actually possible, and it delivers markedly better results than Toronto’s deliberate know nothing approach. Anyway, we get the city we deserve, I suppose, so we shouldn’t whine at Toronto’s increasing un-liveability as we consistently allocate our scarce capital bucks to projects with the least measurable bang.
 
Nothing is guaranteed until it is well into the construction. But, if they are going to start soon and have the launch shaft at Sheppard, then almost any cost advantage of dropping the Sheppard station will be gone.
We'll see what people say after the open house. Maybe people prefer Sheppard East coming to STC. I don't see the reason for another bus terminal when we have one at the mall.
 
We'll see what people say after the open house. Maybe people prefer Sheppard East coming to STC. I don't see the reason for another bus terminal when we have one at the mall.
It makes perfect sense to have another terminal at Sheppard. If they were to build one, they should build the one at Sheppard instead. Either way, the bus terminal at STC wouldn't be the current one which is at capacity.

It takes 15-20 minute round trip between Sheppard and STC. With 40-45 buses per hour in rush hour utilizing that stretch of McCowan between STC and Sheppard and expected to grow in the future, it makes perfect sense to terminate them at Sheppard and reallocate the resource. Routes closer to Ellesmere can continue to terminate at STC.

They would either build one big terminal or two medium ones. The number of bus bays would be similar either way but it'll take buses longer to loop around a bigger terminal. Bus operation would be much better and effective with 2 separated terminals. It just sucks if you have to take the subway for one stop to transfer to another bus but this was the case for Wilson extending to Sheppard West, Islington extending to Kipling and Warden extending to Kennedy too. People just have to get use to it.
 
Every single other piece, including all the concrete, wiring, etc. will be rebuilt several times during that period at an even higher cost than the original build since now it's in service.

NY has a $5B/year maintenance budget and continues to fall behind due to substantial under spending.
You cannot compare the two, that 5B maintenance budget is for a system that is:
A — Chronically Underfunded for decades
B — 10* the size of the proposed network additions
C — Close to or more than 100 years old (you can't expect construction standards to have been as good back then, nor can you compare maintenance costs of a 100-year-old line to a 30-50-year-old line)
D — Has to cope with far more density around said infrastructure
E — Has to cope with maintaining 13 hurricane-prone large tunnel crossings, 3 hurricane-prone large bridge crossings, as well as other river tunnels in the outer boroughs
F — Has a far worse rider etiquette, increasing the damage to the system
G — Has a far more complex network, requiring significantly more special trackwork
H — Is in the process of an insanely complicated signal modernization project (something these new lines likely won't have to cope with until they're 100 years old)
J — Has far more train usage per track segment
K — is largely made of steel structures in an aboveground setting (salt issues)
L — Has far more restrooms per capita
M — Is far less accessible and requires far more elevators.
N — Is located in a coastal city where salt-water is a real threat
Q — Was hit by a giant hurricane recently
R — Has far more vehicles per km of route track (16.3 for NYC compared to 11.4 for the TTC)
S — Has a more intensive vehicle maintenance schedule
S — Has a much older fleet
S — Has much older individual trains that are far less reliable than their modern counterparts
T — Has far larger costs associated with shutdowns
V — Runs overnight service
W — Has a far more complicated diversion system
Z — Has labor efficiency challenges

Compare line 4 to any of the NYC subway lines, or even Lines 1 and 2. They shut down line 4 for one, maybe 2 weekends every 3 years for special trackwork, and perform inspections far less frequently than on the 60-year old sections of the system. Line 4, as well as all of the proposed projects, have none of the issues associated with NYC (except for maybe underfunding). If our capital expenses for the system are 800 million dollars annually for the TTC (not including vehicles, 1 B if you include them), the cost per km of track annually for maintenance (including lines 1 and 2) would be 10.4 M. For the 38 km of the proposed new line, that would cost 400M dollars per year in maintenance (the highest assumption). We won't need additional second exits/third exits, elevators, additional signaling, etc with any of these projects. We might need some additional rolling stock at a cost of 1B for all lines combined, but that is a cost that can be paid off over 30 years. Other infrastructure renewal isn't as significant as the work required on Line 1, 2, 3, or the NYC subway.
 
There isn't going to be a bus terminal "at the mall." Or, if they leave it there, it will be a quarter-mile from the subway station directly under McCowan. I presume the existing terminal is part of the 100 million dollar demolition of perfectly usable concrete infrastructure that this line entails.
 
There isn't going to be a bus terminal "at the mall." Or, if they leave it there, it will be a quarter-mile from the subway station directly under McCowan. I presume the existing terminal is part of the 100 million dollar demolition of perfectly usable concrete infrastructure that this line entails.

It's dumb, two bus terminals both at the next major intersection from each other. Demolition of perfectly good infrastructure instead of upgrading or renovating it. Two stop subway that's like 5x the budget of perfectly good LRT technology. The whole thing doesn't make sense. Not sure what Scarborough residents or MP green light this idea but it doesn't serve the majority of Scarborough. Anyone east of mccowan road still has to travel great distances for a train.

EELRT and the Sheppard East extension is what Scarborough needs in terms of rapid transit.
 

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