Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Leo_Chan]

I can say same about sixrings. Right on schedule, congrats ..

I'm not thrilled about the idea of seeking any private investments for SSE, just because that creates potential for even more delays while all the details are sorted out. 3P is fine when considered from the onset of a project. SSE has been in works for way too long, and should be build ASAP and without messing with the funding formulas.

I'm not thrilled about the idea of seeking any private investments for SSE, just because that creates potential for even more delays while all the details are sorted out. 3P is fine when considered from the onset of a project. SSE has been in works for way too long, and should be build ASAP and without messing with the funding formulas.

Just for the sake of argument: which locations along the SSE route could interest private developers?

Lawrence East is totally unappealing, because of both the natural constraints (ravine and the hydro corridor) and the single-family zoning. The station there would be very handy to serve the hospital and connect to the Lawrence bus route, but there is nothing in that for private investors.

STC has considerable potential, but aren't the slots for future constructions sold already? There might be no room for new fees.

Sheppard / McCowan has potential as it is very under-developed, but getting the subway there would cost quite a bit; that's additional 1.7 km from STC.

Maybe, Eglinton and Brimley? Sell air rights for that location, and use the proceeds to fund stations at Brimley and Lawrence? No more tunnels to build, just the cost of 2 stations ..

The main concern is the delay caused by exploring that schema.

You just posted 4 replies consecutively. You can put multiple quotes in 1 reply.

 

[sixrings]

I can say same about sixrings. Right on schedule, congrats ..

I have no problem being known as the person who doesn't share onecity wild optimism for the pc party ability to finance and build these subways. And when they don't there is always an excuse. (damn those downtown elites drinking their lates, riding bikes and always name calling us hard working Scarberians)

 

[sixrings]

Maybe, Eglinton and Brimley? Sell air rights for that location, and use the proceeds to fund stations at Brimley and Lawrence? No more tunnels to build, just the cost of 2 stations ..

The main concern is the delay caused by exploring that schema.

Isn't each station about 500 million to construct. Even a optimistic land sale of 100 million and you are still asking a government who is in cut cut cut mode to spend to make up the rest. I don't hate scarborough (I lived at both midland and finch and then at lawrence and brimley) or subways (I bought a house above one)but I am aware like everyone on urbantoronto.ca how expensive they are which is why they rarely get built and which is why I am highly skeptical.

 

[Hopkins123]

Since when do stations cost $500 million to construct? Lol!

 

[W. K. Lis]

Since when do stations cost $500 million to construct? Lol!

1950's? In the open trench above Bloor.

 

[sixrings]

In 2017 the Toronto Star pegs a subway at over 200 million(https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...y-linking-the-waterfront-to-union-keenan.html) so I more then doubled it in my estimate. However(https://torontorealtyblog.com/blog/cost-construct-condo-2018/ ) estimates a piece of condo developable land in toronto is worth 200$ a square foot per floor. Eglinton west subway station has a green roof which is 9000 square feet big. If my math is right if instead of a green roof they sold that land as air rights for a 40 floor condo then the grand total would be worth 72 million. So if we had to build eglinton west today at 200million and subtracted the air rights at 72 million then all the tax payers would have to pay in is $128 million. Sounds like a bargain. I may have been wrong with my estimate but I am not wrong that this can easily be paid for by the private sector and or air rights. If that were true then the first ford and or tory would have figured this out already. Someone should check the math though because I may have made a mistake. Sounds better than I imagined

 

[nfitz]

Since when do stations cost $500 million to construct? Lol!

Since they come with very deep underground bus terminals with dozens of platforms (if only there was a parking lot they could use instead) or are very deep under a creek (Lawrence East).

 

[OneCity]

Since when do stations cost $500 million to construct? Lol!

Geez.

Standard SSE fear mongering mark-up recipe

Just add a paltry 200-500% markup on heavily scrutinized fairly recent subway related estimates. Then they take lees scrutinized LRT related estimates from over a decade ago at face value and continue to use those figures to compare against recent subway figures. To sound ever more reputable simply add un-costed phantom stops to the old LRT plan.

It would be somewhat palatable if this phantom mark-up was used on all projects including the old LRT. Even then is beyond unnecessary

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm not thrilled about the idea of seeking any private investments for SSE, just because that creates potential for even more delays while all the details are sorted out. 3P is fine when considered from the onset of a project. SSE has been in works for way too long, and should be build ASAP and without messing with the funding formulas.

There’s no time to sell air rights at STC, and redesign the station. Not when the SRT is a ticking time bomb

Also, I doubt air rights are as lucrative as we imagine. IIRC, I believe The Star did a report on why ECLRT air rights weren’t being sold, and they just aren’t worth the premium for developers in Toronto. This makes a lot of sense: why would a developer pay a premium for station air rights when there’s tons of cheaper developable land a 1 minute walk down the street?

 

[nfitz]

Geez.

Standard SSE fear mongering mark-up recipe

Just add a paltry 200-500% markup on heavily scrutinized fairly recent subway related estimates.

Given that in 2016, they cut 2 stations on the extension to save $1 billion, it seems rather disingenuous in this thread to then pretend that 1 station isn't worth $500 million.

Are you suggesting that adding 2 more stations to the $3.5-billion one-station extension won't add at least $1 billion to the cost?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

A station typically runs from $150 Million to $400 Million, depending on circumstances. Let's try to look at each of the proposed stations objectively.

Lawrence East: This station would be among the most geologically challenging to build in Toronto's history. Its cost should be at the upper range of that $150 Million to $400 Million range. This location isn't particularly lucrative, so I don't expect development rights to be sold here. Also, I don't believe the TTC has made any provisions for the construction of this station.

Sheppard East: This station would necessitate a 1.5 km extension, north from SCC, so we're already in the hole at least $300 Million. This tunnel segment is the most challenging of the proposed SSE route, because it needs to go under Highway 401. $500 Million for this station seems like an extremely optimistic pricing estimation.

All things considered, $1 Billion is a reasonable estimation of the costs for adding in these two stations.

 

[OneCity]

Given that in 2016, they cut 2 stations on the extension to save $1 billion, it seems rather disingenuous in this thread to then pretend that 1 station isn't worth $500 million.

Are you suggesting that adding 2 more stations to the $3.5-billion one-station extension won't add at least $1 billion to the cost?

The stations themselves are not $500 million. Getting across the 401 is another story, but that is a shared expense no matter what technology we use.

A station typically runs from $150 Million to $400 Million, depending on circumstances. Let's try to look at each of the proposed stations objectively.

Lawrence East: This station would be among the most geologically challenging to build in Toronto's history. Its cost should be at the upper range of that $150 Million to $400 Million range. This location isn't particularly lucrative, so I don't expect development rights to be sold here. Also, I don't believe the TTC has made any provisions for the construction of this station.

Sheppard East: This station would necessitate a 1.5 km extension, north from SCC, so we're already in the hole at least $300 Million. This tunnel segment is the most challenging of the proposed SSE route, because it needs to go under Highway 401. $500 Million for this station seems like an extremely optimistic pricing estimation.

All things considered, $1 Billion is a reasonable estimation of the costs for adding in these two stations.

So more likely under $500 Mill for both stations total. The 401 crossing is a necessary cost either way

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The stations themselves are not $500 million. Getting across the 401 is another story, but that is a shared expense no matter what technology we use.

This is just being super pedantic, isn't it? Nobody is going to build a station at Sheppard without a tunnel to linking it to the rest of the subway. In the context of this discussion, this is a distinction without a difference.

 

[nfitz]

The stations themselves are not $500 million. Getting across the 401 is another story, but that is a shared expense no matter what technology we use.



So more likely under $500 Mill per station. The under/over 401is a necessary no matter what.

Not sure your point. I said adding the two stations would cost at least $1 billion to the $3.5 billion budget - and you are instead arguing about $500 million per station?

Are you saying TTC and the City of Toronto were wrong, when they said 2 more stations would cost $1 billion? Of course you include tunnelling (or elevation) costs - if you don't build 2 more stations, you don't need longer track.

 

[OneCity]

Not sure your point. I said adding the two stations would cost at least $1 billion to the $3.5 billion budget - and you are instead arguing about $500 million per station?

Sorry typo. Meant $500m both stations total. You jumped before I corrected.

We can likely add 2 more stops before the 401 for under $500M.

This is just being super pedantic, isn't it? Nobody is going to build a station at Sheppard without a tunnel to linking it to the rest of the subway. In the context of this discussion, this is a distinction without a difference.

We are crossing the 401 as a cost no matter what tech. The stops themselves do not cost $500M.