Cracks appear in Tory alliance

[AlvinofDiaspar]

ungodlycrosscheck:

What is an election platform but a nice neat consolidated (and hopefully costed) summation of campaign promises made on the election trail. The Tories were making announcements throughout the campaign, who cares that the platform wasn't published until the end, that was Finley's strategy. I've dug into my war-room binder from the 08 campaign...

Which is usually published in the beginning of the campaign such that it serves as a basis of debate and comparison - instead of a series of carefully staged public announcements designed to focus on the moment and not the whole. And why would you want to focus a campaign on policy (and all the controversies around any specific ones - like Tory did in Ontario) when it's easier to engage character assassination - like that press event held by the Conservative about how Stephane blew the Duffy interview?

Let's stick to topic, Iggy may be smart, but I'd like some evidence to suggest that he actually has an original idea... if we're giving the guy the keys to 24 Sussex he better start demonstrating that he's got the royal jelly to govern and articulate some sort of vision for the country...

Considering the amount of original ideas Stephen has demostrated since his re-election (other than ideas to shaft the opposition), I am fairly certain that's not a pre-requisite to governing. On the other hand, the December constitutional crisis and the circumstances that lead up to it certainly was evidence of original thinking! On that matter, so was the adamant statements with regards to the state of the Canadian economy - it certainly was creative, to say the least.

As to vision - just what sort of vision was Harper communicating the last 6 months? Strong leadership? We'll follow Obama's lead? The Canadian economy is strong, but let's sink (or look like we're sinking) $40B as stimulus when really, we don't really need it (really?). Sorry, that's not vision - it's called muddling through. And I am fairly certain the faux pas this past October with the economic update can be classified as myopia, which is sort of related to vision, I suppose.

Speaking of changing the topic - I thought this thread is about the split (perceived or otherwise) in the Conservative Party, not whether Iggy has or hasn't got the royal jelly to be the PM?

AoD

 

[jade_lee]

I say put a fork into Harper, turn him over, he's done! There has been quite the learning curve, the conservatives will never achieve a majority in Canada with the current lot at the helm, they shame Canada and Canadians now see this clearly,

 

[afransen]

B.S.

What is an election platform but a nice neat consolidated (and hopefully costed) summation of campaign promises made on the election trail. The Tories were making announcements throughout the campaign, who cares that the platform wasn't published until the end, that was Finley's strategy. I've dug into my war-room binder from the 08 campaign...

September 9, PM announces plan to cut the excise tax on diesel from four cents per litre to two cents

September 9, promise to restore Veterans Allowances for veterans living in Canada for more than 10 years who fought for the Commonwealth or Allied Forces during WWII

September 12, PM in Halifax promises to increase the threshold for foreign investment reviews to attract more investment in Canada, also pledges to open up regulated airline and uranium mining sector for foreign investment

September 13, New measures for increase certainty for small business in Canada by increasing the amount of income eligible for the reduced federal small business tax rate, to $500,000 allowing businesses to grow without jumping into a higher tax bracket. Additional promises to index the lifetime capital gains exemption, plans to reduce the paperwork burden, and providing a new $75 million venture capital fund through BDC

September 15, PM announces that self-employed Canadians will have access to maternity and parental benefits

September 16, PM in Kitchener, announces a plan to extend a first time homebuyers a tax credit for up to $5,000 off the closing costs on the purchase of a new home

Do you want me to go on? My campaign binder is a little thick, but I think my point is made.

Attempting to draw comparisions to Iggy's lack of ideas (heck, even a borrowed one) to the timing of the release of Tories' 08 platform is almost as laughable as the Opposition's attempt to make hay of the same the topic during the last election--it was a see through and desperate attempt to somehow legitimatize their petty allegations that this was proof of a hidden agenda. It was so far from reality, it was an insult to the intelligence of Canadians.

But hey, when your opponents don't like what you have to say, then change the channel.

Let's stick to topic, Iggy may be smart, but I'd like some evidence to suggest that he actually has an original idea... if we're giving the guy the keys to 24 Sussex he better start demonstrating that he's got the royal jelly to govern and articulate some sort of vision for the country.

Where were Harper's campaign promises pre-writ? Why are holding Iggy to a standard Harper couldn't meet? Since when does a leader have to have his election platform released before he's even been formally elected leader?

Edit:

Oh, and I don't think politicians should be the ones crafting policies. That should be left to experts in the field (policy experts). The job of politicians is to identify, sell and implement policies. That said, I think Iggy has proven that he is capable of critical thinking, if that's what you mean.

By the way, what happened to Harper's other election promise of no deficit, under any circumstance?

 

[urbanfan89]

It's clear from this thread that Steve's $3 billion slush fund has partially gone into paying people on the internet to toe the Party Line.

Hey, it happens in China...

 

[kEiThZ]

It's clear from this thread that Steve's $3 billion slush fund has partially gone into paying people on the internet to toe the Party Line.

Hey, it happens in China...

This kind of assertion always bothers me. Just because somebody does not agree with you on a internet forum does not mean that they are a paid blogger. Are you so self-centered that you can’t see somebody else out there holding views that are dissimilar from yours?

This kind of crap is exactly why democracy is going down the tubes in this country. Honest and vigorous debate quickly degenerates into baseless accusations and name calling.

 

[ungodlycrosscheck]

Which is usually published in the beginning of the campaign such that it serves as a basis of debate and comparison -

Uh no. The writ was issued for the 08 campaign on Sept 7, the Liberals unveiled their platform on Sept 22, the NDP on the 29th. There is no basis in in fact to your assertion that platforms are published at the beginning of a campaign... strategically it makes little sense to release your entire platform early. A campaign is (at minimum) a 36 day odessey, some aspects of the platform are developed well in advance, but there is also built into the campaign script some latitiude for flexibility, publishing one's platform at the very outset deprives a political party the ability to be nimble.

Anyway this is a sidebar issue which was brought up earlier and I've answered... moving on...

As to vision - just what sort of vision was Harper communicating the last 6 months? Strong leadership? We'll follow Obama's lead? The Canadian economy is strong, but let's sink (or look like we're sinking) $40B as stimulus when really, we don't really need it (really?). Sorry, that's not vision - it's called muddling through. And I am fairly certain the faux pas this past October with the economic update can be classified as myopia, which is sort of related to vision, I suppose.

Critics are more than welcome to attack the Economic Action Plan, this is afterall a democratic society, but muddling through?

The Fall 07 fiscal update was the first time the Finance Minister warned that there were rough seas ahead. There was at that time a legitimate concern about the rising tide of inflation, but in that document there was also direct attention paid to tremors in the US mortgage market.

As Conservatives the vision was to insulate the Canadian economy as much as possible through broad based tax advantages (read personal and corporate tax cuts), streamlined regulatory processes that eliminate redundancies and impediments to growth, and make some minor adjustments to the financial sector that encourage foreign investment as well as the ability of Canadian firms to compete globally.

There is nothing muddling through about it... corporate tax rates were reduced and will continue to be reduced to 18.5%, personal rates were lowered, the GST was reduced, the government reduced the maximum term for a mortgage to 30 years, Canadian banks were required to increaase liquidity (this was done in the Spring of 2008--well before the bubble burst), FIRA rules were loosened for certain sectors, the government also was meticulously delivering on the recommendations from the Wilson Panel (AKA the Competition Policy Review Panel) to improve Canada's competitiveness through the aforementionned and other means.

You can disagree with the approaches but to suggest that there was nothing done to help weather the synchronized global economic storm we are in is patently false... its actually sounds a bit like flat earth theorists -- denial in the face of overwelming evidence.

We were the last country in the G-8 to enter the recession, in large part due to the foresightedness of the current government.

As for dealing with the topic for which this thread was created (attempting to steer it back here), any rumours of internal hemoraghing within the Conservatives are just that, unsubstantiated rumours. I suspect there are a few wishful thinkers within the Press Gallery or at the Toronto Star who would like to think so, but it doesn't stand the test of reality. It's really kind of silly to even suggest, it must have been a slow news day. I leave it there.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

ungodlycrosscheck:

The writ was issued for the 08 campaign on Sept 7, the Liberals unveiled their platform on Sept 22, the NDP on the 29th.

And the Conservatives? How about historically, what was the pattern of timing in terms of the release of campaign platform?

There is no basis in in fact to your assertion that platforms are published at the beginning of a campaign... strategically it makes little sense to release your entire platform early. A campaign is (at minimum) a 36 day odessey, some aspects of the platform are developed well in advance, but there is also built into the campaign script some latitiude for flexibility, publishing one's platform at the very outset deprives a political party the ability to be nimble.

And strategically, it makes even less sense for the incumbent party to release them early - and aren't flexiblity and nimble code words for changing policies as to what the poll suggests and not what party really "stands for" - other than carefully coded messages that hint of a stance but never fully paint out what it entails from a policy perspective?

The Fall 07 fiscal update was the first time the Finance Minister warned that there were rough seas ahead. There was at that time a legitimate concern about the rising tide of inflation, but in that document there was also direct attention paid to tremors in the US mortgage market.

If so, then why would a Finance Minister deny that there are rough seas at all in the economic update when the tremors in US has all but turned into a Richter 8.0 - and even dare to project that the government will have surplus when the prevailing opinion among economists (which are hardly of the left) basically identified it as a piece of fiction?

As Conservatives the vision was to insulate the Canadian economy as much as possible through broad based tax advantages (read personal and corporate tax cuts), streamlined regulatory processes that eliminate redundancies and impediments to growth, and make some minor adjustments to the financial sector that encourage foreign investment as well as the ability of Canadian firms to compete globally.

Are these policies to insinuate the economy from downturn - or are they ideological (that's not to question the validity of the ideology behind them) policies that would have been undertaken?

There is nothing muddling through about it... corporate tax rates were reduced and will continue to be reduced to 18.5%, personal rates were lowered, the GST was reduced, the government reduced the maximum term for a mortgage to 30 years, Canadian banks were required to increaase liquidity (this was done in the Spring of 2008--well before the bubble burst), FIRA rules were loosened for certain sectors, the government also was meticulously delivering on the recommendations from the Wilson Panel (AKA the Competition Policy Review Panel) to improve Canada's competitiveness through the aforementionned and other means.

See above comment - to claim that the GST cut, for example, is designed with the downturn in mind is somewhat of a stretch considering it is in campaign literature from the election before, which was what, 2+ years ago. In fact, one can make the opposite claim that the cut, which is considered to be counterproductive by mainstream economists, has removed the cushon in government revenues that ultimately produced the budget deficit we're experiencing. With regards to the limitation of 30 year mortgages - perhaps one should look up the article by Jackquie McNish and Greg McArthur in the Globe this past December on what the role of the Conservative government was in shaping policies that lead to the expansion of high-risk mortgages in Canada prior to the mea culpa.

You can disagree with the approaches but to suggest that there was nothing done to help weather the synchronized global economic storm we are in is patently false... its actually sounds a bit like flat earth theorists -- denial in the face of overwelming evidence.

But see, the overwhelming evidence you so claim has nothing to do with weathering the economic storm necessarily - beyond that, the efficacy of the measures hasn't been demonstrated, which leads to...

We were the last country in the G-8 to enter the recession, in large part due to the foresightedness of the current government.

Or was it because of policies from previous governments (which is of course, claimed as one's own foresight - like regulations around the Canadian banking system - recall the restrictions on bank mergers during the Chretein-Martin era?) as well as structural aspects that other countries cannot claim (such as being a exporter of certain commodities - the prices of which spiked early-mid 2008?). Beyond that, just because we're the last country to enter the recession doesn't equate to the downturn being of lesser severity or even more importantly - structurally distruptive.

As for dealing with the topic for which this thread was created (attempting to steer it back here), any rumours of internal hemoraghing within the Conservatives are just that, unsubstantiated rumours. I suspect there are a few wishful thinkers within the Press Gallery or at the Toronto Star who would like to think so, but it doesn't stand the test of reality. It's really kind of silly to even suggest, it must have been a slow news day. I leave it there.

Now that I do agree with to some degree- that there is a very good possiblity of the rift being overstated. That said, in a similiar vein, why would someone with demostrated sympathies to the Conservatives report that anything is but all well? Regardless, at the end of the day, things will play themselves out one way or another and Canadians will be the ultimate judge on election day.

AoD

 

[afransen]

This kind of assertion always bothers me. Just because somebody does not agree with you on a internet forum does not mean that they are a paid blogger. Are you so self-centered that you can’t see somebody else out there holding views that are dissimilar from yours?

This kind of crap is exactly why democracy is going down the tubes in this country. Honest and vigorous debate quickly degenerates into baseless accusations and name calling.

To be fair, the CPC do employ pay for play bloggers and buy headlines.

 

[kEiThZ]

To be fair, the CPC do employ pay for play bloggers and buy headlines.

Has there been credible evidence of that?

Either way though, it's a pretty random assertion to throw out, any time somebody comes to UT with conservative views. Jade_Lee made the same suggestion about me and Hydrogen..though, if one looks at the pattern of Jade_Lee's posts, there's a pretty good case to be made that the individual might be a professional blogger for MoveOn or the NDP. I can see it as far game if somebody repeatedly spouts word for word quotes from the CPC website or speeches or something. But if someone engages in a decent discussion, then challenge their views. There's no need to accuse them of being a paid blogger. That just proves one's own lack of intellectual prowess.

 

[afransen]

Yes. Bourque Newswatch has been paid to run CPC-sympathetic pieces under the guise of independence.

That said, I won't defend Jade_lee. I've said elsewhere that he/she is a troll, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind about that.

 

[jade_lee]

I am a Canadian with a political opinion. Calling me a troll doesn't make my vote count less than yours. I don't need you to vouch for me thanks. Sticks and stones as they say.

 

[afransen]

More on the stick-a-fork-in-him front:


Conservatives slipping, Liberals gaining: EKOS poll
Governing party's support dropping in Ontario, Quebec, survey suggests
Last Updated: Thursday, April 16, 2009 | 7:13 PM ET

Fortunes have shifted substantially for Stephen Harper's Conservatives since December, with Michael Ignatieff's Liberals enjoying an upsurge, says a new poll from EKOS released exclusively to CBC News.

Asked which party they would support if an election were held tomorrow, 36.7 opted for the Liberals while 30.2 per cent chose the Conservatives. About 15.5 per cent supported the NDP, while the Green party was the choice of 8.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois was backed by 9.4 per cent.

The survey was conducted using a hybrid internet-telephone research panel between April 8 and 13, and involved a random sample of 1,587 Canadians. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

A similar poll question was asked just after the December prorogation crisis, when the minority Conservative government almost fell in the face of a challenge from a Liberal-NDP coalition headed by former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion.

It suggested the Conservatives had 44 per cent approval among the Canadian public, with dips for the Liberals (at 24 per cent) and NDP (at 14.5 per cent) compared to vote share those two parties had earned in the Oct. 14 federal election (26.2 per cent and 18.2 per cent respectively).
'Iffy proposition' to retain minority: pollster

EKOS pollster Frank Graves said the latest numbers, accompanied by regional breakdowns showing the Conservatives' level of support well below that of the Liberals in the key battleground provinces of Ontario and Quebec, suggest that "even the question of repeating a minority is an iffy proposition" for Harper's party.

The Liberals and NDP would almost certainly gain seats at the Conservatives' expense if an election were held this spring or summer, Graves pointed out. "There would be little in Stephen Harper's toolkit to discipline an opposition in these circumstances."

The province of Quebec in particular "almost looks like a wasteland for them," the pollster said.

Though the poll's Quebec margin of error is relatively high at plus or minus 5.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20, the Conservatives register only 10.9 per cent support in the province, compared to 39.5 per cent for the Bloc Québécois, 33.0 per cent for the Liberals, 11.7 per cent for the NDP and 4.9 per cent for the Greens.

In the Ontario breakdown, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20, the Conservatives enjoy 32.4 per cent, compared to 42.0 per cent for the Liberals. The two parties were statistically tied the last time EKOS conducted party preference polling.
Conservatives more confident

On the bright side for the Harper team, confidence in both the current government and the Canadian economy are very high among Conservative backers.

Harper has an approval rating of 91 per cent among decided Conservative voters, although he only has a rating of 14 per cent among Liberal voters, 18 per cent among NDP voters, 28 per cent among Greens and 10 per cent among Bloc voters.

"There's a vivid gap between the Conservative base, who are very happy with the general direction of the country, and everyone else," Graves said.

Graves added that the reverse doesn't apply for Ignatieff.

The man who has been Liberal leader for almost four months has approval ratings of 33 per cent among Conservative supporters, as well as a rating of 80 per cent among self-identified Liberals. Ignatieff also fares high among other party supporters — he has a rating of 34 among NDP voters, 44 among Greens and 47 among Bloc voters.




-------------------------------------------------------------------


It's looking pretty grim for the CPC. If these trends continue, I might have to eat my prediction that an election won't occur until next Spring.

 

[jade_lee]

The election will occur when we Canadians can stomach the idea of another one and our politicians in power know they are about to get spanked either way.
The recap of the Harper years will be a blast to review, powerful enough to blow them into the western wind. I hear the echo now.

 

[kEiThZ]

Yes. Bourque Newswatch has been paid to run CPC-sympathetic pieces under the guise of independence.

While not an activity I would condone, paying the Canadian equivalent of the Drudge Report to rank up CPC sympathetic stories is not exactly on the same scale as the other CPC (Communist Party of China) fielding full time teams of professional bloggers. This stuff needs to be put into perspective. How many folks really read Bourque every day anyway? If you got more sources on this please post; it would make for interesting reading.

On the election front, I just can't see how they can go this summer. Keep in mind that the public is not comprised of political junkies. Most people I know would get upset if the Conservative minority were toppled by the opposition tomorrow. And many of them are Liberals! I still think that the best time would be the fall. The LPC would have cash, the economy would have hit its bottom, and the really bad economic 'updates' would provide ther perfect excuse. Any earlier and it would be seen as raw opportunism and a grab for power by the opposition mere months after our recent constitutional crisis.

 

[afransen]

While not an activity I would condone, paying the Canadian equivalent of the Drudge Report to rank up CPC sympathetic stories is not exactly on the same scale as the other CPC (Communist Party of China) fielding full time teams of professional bloggers. This stuff needs to be put into perspective. How many folks really read Bourque every day anyway? If you got more sources on this please post; it would make for interesting reading.

On the election front, I just can't see how they can go this summer. Keep in mind that the public is not comprised of political junkies. Most people I know would get upset if the Conservative minority were toppled by the opposition tomorrow. And many of them are Liberals! I still think that the best time would be the fall. The LPC would have cash, the economy would have hit its bottom, and the really bad economic 'updates' would provide ther perfect excuse. Any earlier and it would be seen as raw opportunism and a grab for power by the opposition mere months after our recent constitutional crisis.

Good point. But then, maybe Harper will just prorogue the Fall session, too. Tongue firmly in cheek of course.

According to Bourque, they do receive a lot of traffic. Of course, I am sure it is all from brainwashed Tory stalwarts for whom the party can do no wrong.