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Coronavirus and the impact to the real estate market

Undead said:
How do you see this working when most of the jobs are in Toronto and employers are dead set against remote work? I'll also say it's somewhat grating hearing you repeat the same points seemingly without considering any of the valid counterarguments presented many times in this thread.
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I'm not referring to remote jobs, there are thousands of WFO jobs open across the country - pick any city in Canada and check the listings. Here's Inside Sales in Winnipeg, for example, over $50k, where homes can be affordable, for example here's a bunch under $250k.

Apologies for gratingly beating a dead horse and I think I have considered counterarguments to leaving the GTA for greener pastures. Usually people claim that familial ties or friends keep them in the GTA, but I suspect a lot of people are just settled. I can't let an itch go without scratching, and when I see people complaining that they cannot afford a home in the GTA my mind goes to the obvious solution, do exactly what our immigrant parents did, move to where the conditions are better. Canada is a huge country with opportunities and housing that fit almost anyone who's willing to give it a go. Would I miss my now teenaged kids if they one day move to Yellowknife or Goose Bay? Definitely, but heck, I'm thinking road trip and extended visits to some great parts of Canada.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I'm not referring to remote jobs, there are thousands of WFO jobs open across the country - pick any city in Canada and check the listings. Here's Inside Sales in Winnipeg, for example, over $50k, where homes can be affordable, for example here's a bunch under $250k.

Apologies for gratingly beating a dead horse and I think I have considered counterarguments to leaving the GTA for greener pastures. Usually people claim that familial ties or friends keep them in the GTA, but I suspect a lot of people are just settled. I can't let an itch go without scratching, and when I see people complaining that they cannot afford a home in the GTA my mind goes to the obvious solution, do exactly what our immigrant parents did, move to where the conditions are better. Canada is a huge country with opportunities and housing that fit almost anyone who's willing to give it a go. Would I miss my now teenaged kids if they one day move to Yellowknife or Goose Bay? Definitely, but heck, I'm thinking road trip and extended visits to some great parts of Canada.
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That is maybe what people should do on a micro level, but it is bad for Toronto as an economic unit to have insane house prices. And what is bad for Toronto is bad for Ontario and Canada.
 
afransen said:
That is maybe what people should do on a micro level, but it is bad for Toronto as an economic unit to have insane house prices. And what is bad for Toronto is bad for Ontario and Canada.
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I agree. And the fix in Toronto needs to be supply, since demand is ever growing as more people growup and others move to the GTA. We have huge swaths of near empty land in the GTA that should be asap changed to 3-4 bedroom, family-focused dense housing. Toronto's former Portlands have been fallow for decades - get building now, expedite the soil cleanup. Eglinton East from VP to Birchmount and the entire Golden Mile retail/wasteland should be torn out and expedited into dense housing, and not all curtain walled, highrise condos, but midrise communities. Looks at all the grey here, this should be housing, not parking lots. And convert Downsview into housing. Just these three areas could house another 100,000 families.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I agree. And the fix in Toronto needs to be supply, since demand is ever growing as more people growup and others move to the GTA. We have huge swaths of near empty land in the GTA that should be asap changed to 3-4 bedroom, family-focused dense housing. Toronto's former Portlands have been fallow for decades - get building now, expedite the soil cleanup. Eglinton East from VP to Birchmount and the entire Golden Mile retail/wasteland should be torn out and expedited into dense housing, and not all curtain walled, highrise condos, but midrise communities. Looks at all the grey here, this should be housing, not parking lots. And convert Downsview into housing. Just these three areas could house another 100,000 families.
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All of that is underway, albeit the result will have a significant number of the much maligned point and podium style towers. In reality, the yellowbelt's restrictive zoning is the bigger problem. Of course, the real root cause is irresponsible monetary and immigration policy from the federal government, but most people don't know or don't care...
 
The problem is 100% the yellowbelt. Building more condos and even midrise on avenues will just be a spit in the bucket of what is needed.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I'm not referring to remote jobs, there are thousands of WFO jobs open across the country - pick any city in Canada and check the listings. Here's Inside Sales in Winnipeg, for example, over $50k, where homes can be affordable, for example here's a bunch under $250k.
Canada is a huge country with opportunities and housing that fit almost anyone who's willing to give it a go. Would I miss my now teenaged kids if they one day move to Yellowknife or Goose Bay? Definitely, but heck, I'm thinking road trip and extended visits to some great parts of Canada.
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When my sister moved to Vancouver in the late 90s for school, it was difficult for our family to visit her. it's was an expensive trip for a family of four. But now a days, it's not so bad, we got technology like Zoom/FacTime and other apps to keep in touch.

Over Christmas i had a great virtual hang out over Zoom with friends from all over the world. All hanging out together on one screen. Technology sure is amazing!
 
Admiral Beez said:
Where is this yellow belt? If we build SFHs won’t we just be here again in two decades?
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It covers 2/3 of Toronto's area (detached and semi detached primarily).

@afransen is not advocating for more SFH.

The argument is that the yellowbelt is too large. This forces all new housing into the comparatively small areas zoned as mixed use and avenues, which constrains supply. It's also forced to be overly dense.

I still contend supply is not the primary problem, but gentle density in significant numbers across the yellowbelt would help.
 
Admiral Beez said:
But how do you develop land covered in SFH homes? At $1 million a piece market value, expropriating one subdivision would cost taxpayers billions.
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I wouldn't, I actually think we're stuck with the yellowbelt for the foreseeable future. Even if we legalize multiplex lowrise, I doubt that vast numbers of detached house dwellers will rush off to redevelop their properties and sell the resulting units at an affordable price.

Whether we like it or not, large housing tracts were always built by large devs (sometimes with gov't help). These will remain the large housing supply providers.

I think the way forward is choking off speculative demand; and addressing supply by making it easier for the big devs to bite off small chunks from the yellowbelt to redevelop into midrise. Upzone the rest of the yellowbelt to townhouses as of right.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Where is this yellow belt? If we build SFHs won’t we just be here again in two decades?
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We should allow the yellowbelt, which is the majority of urban area, the intensity responsibly with quick and cheap to construct low-rise units. Many SFH could be replaced with tri or quadplexes.
 
Admiral Beez said:
But how do you develop land covered in SFH homes? At $1 million a piece market value, expropriating one subdivision would cost taxpayers billions.
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If you can buy a $1m house, knock it down and build 4 or 6 units that sell for $600k a pop you might be doing pretty brisk business. Many small developers would be all over it. You don't need massively deep pockets or complex project financing to get it off the ground, and construction would take <2 years.

For context, as to what this could/would look like:

Multiplex: Medium — Missing Middle Housing

missingmiddlehousing.com missingmiddlehousing.com
 
afransen said:
If you can buy a $1m house, knock it down and build 4 or 6 units that sell for $600k a pop you might be doing pretty brisk business. Many small developers would be all over it.
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I assumed it was government expropriation not private developers. If you’re suggesting developers buy the $1m houses and then build the dense units you’d have to first overcome tens of thousands of lawsuits. Or is the idea that the government seize peoples‘ property and then auction it off to wealthy private developers so they can get richer, all in the name of some perception of greater public good? Whomever is premier at the time is going to get his/her ass kicked.

If you want to build dense and mid rise new housing it needs to be on new land or current and former commercial/industrial land. There’s no chance the government will seize tens of thousands of families’ private homes. And forget about using tax increases or St. Jamestown blockbusting ideas to force them to sell to developers or willingly surrender their property to the government or developers. Again, the premier would be destroyed.

SFHs are built because that‘s what the market wants. It’s stupid, shortsighted city planning and housing policy, but we can only address it through changing new builds, we can’t go back and fix the past. Start by expediting dense housing in the Portlands, Golden Mile, Downsview and Yorkdale.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I assumed it was government expropriation not private developers. If you’re suggesting developers buy the $1m houses and then build the dense units you’d have to first overcome tens of thousands of lawsuits. Or is the idea that the government seize peoples‘ property and then auction it off to wealthy private developers so they can get richer, all in the name of some perception of greater public good? Whomever is premier at the time is going to get his/her ass kicked.
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No, much simpler. Government merely allows such development as of right. A developer buys a property at market rates or maybe two adjacent properties, and submits a building application for a multiplex. No lawsuits, no public consultation. Market transactions and minimal red tape building application. Essentially instead of building 4000 sqft McMansions they build 4x1000 sqft units.

SFH are/were built because that was literally the only permitted use in those zones.

Can't go back and fix the past? This is how cities always developed. Gradual intensification. The unnatural state of affairs is trying to keep our SFH yellowbelt zones frozen in amber to protect 'neighbourhood character' (crappy 70s vinyl siding and all).
 
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