Climate Change & Toronto

[Northern Light]

I’d like to limit government‘s role in telling property owners what they can do on their own land. It’s not the parked car that’s causing heat and runway off issues, but the lack of permeable surface. My neighbour across the street cemented over her entire front lawn, not for a car as she doesn’t own one, but because she wanted a no maintain surface.

I‘m fine with the city telling or enticing people to change their front yards to permeable, non-reflective surfaces, but if a property owner isn’t causing undo harm to others I’m not going full HOA telling people what to do on their own property. So, keep your legal, city permit issued parking pad (if it’s not issued a permit that‘s another story), just let the water pass through to the trees.

You're notion is certainly one I prefer to maintain an impermeable front yard.

That said, most front-yard pad permits exist because the parking spot created is partially on City-owned land.

In which case I do think its fair game for the City to say 'no' you can't do that with our land; and there may not be enough room remaining for a viable pad w/o the City's portion.

 

[W. K. Lis]

 

[lenaitch]

That's cool. The pavement they now use on the 401 et al has a content of recycled rubber and a degree of permeability. My brother expanded the parking area of his rural property and used a permeable paver - an open grid-type paver that you fill in with soil, screenings, etc. Obviously not great for travelled ways like your post.

 

[W. K. Lis]

That's cool. The pavement they now use on the 401 et al has a content of recycled rubber and a degree of permeability. My brother expanded the parking area of his rural property and used a permeable paver - an open grid-type paver that you fill in with soil, screenings, etc. Obviously not great for travelled ways like your post.

One consideration with permeability is expansion by water that freezes into ice. Will the surface allow for the expansion, without buckling or cracking? Hopefully, the water will have been adsorbed by the subsoil underneath in time before it freezes.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Lake Oroville, CA; 3 years ago, 3 months ago, and last week​

From link.

The lake is fed by the Feather River watershed, and empties through the Oroville Dam. Unusually high winter precipitation will raise the level of the lake above it's typical level, while unusually low winter precipitation will lower it.

The winter of 2016/2017 had unusually high winter precipitation that raised the level of the lake so high that the main spillway of the dam was severely damaged, and the emergency spillway was used for the first time in the history of the lake (essentially, just allowing the lake to overflow the burms surrounding the dam). Large portions of the Sacramento River Delta were flooded that winter. I almost lost my home when a levee on one of the Delta rivers ruptured.

What you're seeing in the photos above is the difference between two historic extremes that just happened to be a few years apart.

 

[lenaitch]

One consideration with permeability is expansion by water that freezes into ice. Will the surface allow for the expansion, without buckling or cracking? Hopefully, the water will have been adsorbed by the subsoil underneath in time before it freezes.

Good point. As far as I know, the 'rubber pavement' used by the MTO is laid on a bed of concrete. Of course, they still salt/brine.

 

[W. K. Lis]

IPCC | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis​

From link.

Climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying. That is the key finding of the latest scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It finds changes in the Earth’s climate in every region and across the whole climate system. Many changes are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years. Some, such as continued sea-level rise, are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years. The report points to strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to limit climate change. Benefits for air quality would come quickly, while global temperatures would take 20-30 years to stabilize. The report, issued by the IPCC’s Working Group I and approved by 195 member governments, is the first in a series leading up to the 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. It includes a closer look at the regional dimensions of climate change and builds on advances in attributing specific weather and climate events to climate change.

From https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

AR6 Climate Change 2021:
The Physical Science Basis​

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.

Summary for Policymakers​

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) provides a high-level summary of the understanding of the current state of the climate, including how it is changing and the role of human influence, and the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant to regions and sectors, and limiting human-induced climate change. (39 pages)

Technical Summary​

The Technical Summary (TS) is designed to bridge between the comprehensive assessment of the Working Group I Chapters and its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from the Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and atlas and provides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of evidence. (150 pages)

Full report​

The thirteen chapters of the Working Group I report provide an assessment of the current evidence on the physical science of climate change, knowledge evaluation gained from observations, reanalyses, paleoclimate archives and climate model simulations, as well as physical, chemical and biological climate processes. (1300 pages?)

 

[W. K. Lis]

Urgent climate change action is needed or else Canada’s extreme heat and severe weather will worsen​

From link.

Canadians can expect climate change to lead to more severe weather events and a possible disruption in food supply if action isn’t taken to address the looming threat of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming.

A bombshell report released Monday by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned of dire consequences if there is not rapid action globally to keep warming under the 1.5 degree benchmark — at which point the consequences of warming will rapidly accelerate.

Here are key issues Canadians should keep in mind. The Star will continue to update this file throughout the day to offer more perspectives on the threat of climate change.

Extreme weather is here to stay

Canadians have suffered under the extreme conditions brought on by the west coast’s early summer heat dome and the ensuing wildfires which continue to burn across the country. These extreme events will be more common as temperatures rise.

Samantha Green, faculty lead in climate change and health at the University of Toronto’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine, told the Star that the current extreme weather events are happening at 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming. According to the IPCC report, we are on track to reach 1.5 degrees of warming — something which must be avoided for both “planetary well-being (and) also for human health,” Green said.

The climate will become unpredictable, she said, continuing that some years, Canada may suffer under extended droughts, while flooding could follow the next. In some cases, parts of Canada may experience flooding as other regions endure drought.

The IPCC report found that a warmer climate will mean very wet and very dry weather and climate events will intensify.

This is a health crisis

Climate change and public health are inextricably linked, Green stressed. Aside from the physical threat of injury from fire and floods, there are risks to mental health from the displacement caused by these events, she said.

Wildfire smoke can trigger asthma attacks and the early development of asthma in children, Green noted. Meanwhile, smoke has similarities to air pollution — which is linked to an increase in inflammatory disorders such as heart attacks and strokes, she said.

“The climate crisis is a health crisis, and I think we need to understand it as such,” Green said.

Climate change will hit Canadian cities hard

Cities aren’t exempt from the devastation worsening weather events bring with them — and in fact may face “amplified” impacts, said Sarah Buchanan, campaigns director for Toronto Environmental Alliance.

The urban heat island effect, which occurs when cities replace natural landscapes with pavement and other surfaces that cling to heat, could mean hotter temperatures in the summers, Buchanan said, adding that in turn, tenants without access to ample air conditioning, or those that live in areas with limited tree cover will feel climate impacts more severely.

“We need to think about who is feeling these climate impacts most,” she said. “How do we put actions in place to give people relief to keep people safe and healthy?”

Buchanan said that upgrading existing infrastructure to address emissions and create greener options is necessary.

Additionally, addressing the crisis offers an opportunity for cities like Toronto to not only be more resilient to climate change, but also one that prioritizes the health of residents, she said, adding that more transit options is just one way that cities could look at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

There is no longer a question on if action should happen, Buchanan said. “We have to stop kicking the can down the road to build that world — we have to build that world now.”

Climate change will accelerate damage to our ecosystems and in turn, humans

Canada’s ecosystems are already changing. Climate change, however, “supercharges” the existing impacts that previous warming has already had, said Dale Marshall, national climate program manager for Environmental Defence.

When species go extinct, the nature of an ecosystem completely changes and could lead to a total collapse, Marshall said. “Our species is incredibly dependent, not only for our well being but for our survival, on the natural environment and natural ecosystem.”

The more pressure placed on ecosystems means more and different species are at risk, he said. Those risks don’t stay in one spot, Marshall stressed. Rather, they “rebound back on us in terms of how well we’re able to thrive or survive in the future.”

 

[W. K. Lis]

 

[Admiral Beez]

Urgent climate change action is needed or else Canada’s extreme heat and severe weather will worsen​

From link.

This country has a close to 10% of the world's fresh water, we need to pipe it, not oil to where it's needed. We have the pipes, let's switch them over from petroleum to Dihydrogen Monoxide (DHMO). It's a national emergency issue, so we can force the pipeline owners to comply.

And the idea of damming James Bay and diverting the fresh water to agriculture, towns and First Nations in MB and AB (and also in ON and QC where needed) has merit. Unlike this scheme that looked at taking the water for the USA https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Great_Recycling_and_Northern_Development_Canal

Droughts and regional rainfall imbalances are here to stay in Canada. If we have a downpour in Ontario, let's get some of that to Manitoba farmers, for example. The Romans did this thousands of years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipeline_transport#Water

 

[W. K. Lis]

From link.

Fresh water freezes at 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), but the freezing point of sea water varies. For every 5 psu increase in salinity, the freezing point decreases by 0.28 degrees Celsius (0.5 degrees Fahrenheit); thus, in polar regions with an ocean salinity of about 32 psu, the water begins to freeze at -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.8 degrees Fahrenheit). The Arctic Ocean is generally fresher than other oceans, somewhere between 30 and 34 psu, but salinity levels vary by region, and areas with strong river inflow may have even lower salinity.

1. When frazil ice crystals form, salt accumulates into droplets called brine, which are typically expelled back into the ocean. This raises the salinity of the near-surface water. Some brine droplets become trapped in pockets between the ice crystals. These droplets are saline, whereas the ice around them is not. The brine remains in a liquid state because much cooler temperatures would be required for it to freeze. At this stage, the sea ice has a high salt content. Over time, the brine drains out, leaving air pockets, and the salinity of the sea ice decreases. Brine can move out of sea ice in diferent ways: Aided by gravity, the brine migrates downward through holes and channels in the ice, eventually emptying back into the ocean.
2. The ice surrounding the brine compresses and breaks the brine pockets, allowing the brine to escape to the ocean.
3. When the sea ice begins to melt during the summer, small freshwater ponds (called melt ponds) form on the top layer of the ice. This freshwater travels through the cracks and holes in the ice, washing out remaining brine.
4. When the sea ice surface cools, brine increases in salinity to the point at which it can melt ice at its underside. This leads to a downward migration of brine droplets, ultimately allowing the brine to escape into the ocean below the ice sheet.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Here are two interesting videos I found on YouTube on how to reduce the urban heat island effect to cool our cities:

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Apparently @AlexBozikovic is now moonlighting as the Globe and Mail's climate change reporter............

The heat is on – and it’s here to stay

Temperatures are only expected to keep rising, and silence on the issue shows we’re not ready

www.theglobeandmail.com

FWIW, its a good column, in so far as it rightly notes Toronto is likely to see more extremely warm days, much more often in years ahead; and that many residents, particularly those in older apartments are very vulnerable to this in that they often lack air conditioning.

I would love to Alex do a follow up though on more specific actions that the City ought to be taking; and try to put a cost number on them too whether that cost is on the City or is one imposed by the City on landlords or others.

I have a few thoughts:

1) One of the worst sources of heat in this City is surface parking lots. We need a by-law requiring that that surface parking must be shaded by trees. I think a reasonable requirement would be that a parking lot should be designed to support no less than 70% shade (100% being ideal) on June solstice. The highest priority should be surface lots beside apartment buildings. In order to achieve this, we first have to waive any requirement on landlords in respect of the amount of parking.
Second, we need to mandate the change I describe when ever a lot under goes reconstruction. Third, we need to put a hard limit on meeting the requirement (so as not to excuse those who defer paving work), say by 2035.
Finally, we need to consider incentives. The City could rebate the cost 50% of the cost of de-paving a parking spot and adding a tree, off of the landlord's tax bill.

2) Extend the logic of the above to removing parking pads in front of homes.

3) In the case of commercial parking lots, apply a stormwater tax that is reduced by meeting permeability and shading requirements.

4) Raise the cost of permit parking to full market rates over 3-5 years; use the associated reduction in uptake to narrow roads, particularly wider collector roads by adding back a tree-lined boulevard.

5) A maximum temperature by-law does need to be imposed on landlord's in the medium term. However, there are inter-related options that can be looked at in the nearer term. Many older buildings have dated and sometimes dangerous electrical. One thing that makes it dangerous is that most apartments were built for 60-amp service which means air conditioners very fully tax and sometimes overheat wires, especially w/portables or older units where compressors are failing. Mandating that all apartments have a minimum of 100amp electrical service on a modern, circuit-breaker panel would at least allow those who can afford a/c to install it safely.

Mandates around a/c are going to be problematic in that its a very expensive retrofit into buildings that don't have central air. It requires one of, installing central air, installing direct-vent air conditioners in each unit or an alternative cooling system.

I'm fine with a conventional mandate, but I'd love to see some exploration of whether radiator pipes can be effectively used to deliver cold in the summer similar to heat-exchange systems. My understanding is that due to reduced temperature differential such a system would be much less effective at cooling than heating. But if it was good enough to lower a temperature from 30+ to say 24.........it may not be comfortable, but it would still be a drastic improvement.

****

Pavement being a huge source of heat, we all have to address highways, none moreso than the 401.

We have to look at alternative pavements that absorb less heat for a start; but we also need to consider ways to shade the pavement, and do so cost-effectively and practically. Lining the highway with shade trees isn't the most practical choice for a host of reasons.

While 'decked' sections with parks over the top could work, that certainly won't the norm along the entire highway.

We need other means to address these issues as well.

Queen's Park really should demonstrate some leadership to speed along the implementation of climate change resilience projects. This would circumvent the years of debate and feet dragging we'd see otherwise from municipalities across the province. This is similar to how the Province mandated accessibility in transit stations.

Some additional climate change mitigation strategies I would suggest. Municipalities should be required to conform to all of these regulatory updates within 10 years:

EV Adoption
1. Mandate that EV charging stations must be installed for all parking spaces in new-build residential buildings. 100% of cars sold in 2030 will be electric, we need to be prepared today. Installing charging stations will reduce the barrier to entry for new EV purchasers.
2. Mandate that all parking lots over a certain size must have a minimum number of EV charging stations. This would be particularly important in workplace settings, where people might want to charge during their shift. This will also serve to reduce the barrier to entry for new EV purchasers.
3. Begin looking into the feasibility of installing an on-street charging stations in major cities across the province. How many charging stations would we need? What are the approximate costs?
4. All electric chargers should meet minimum quality standards (eg, achieve a certain charge time)

Cycling Adoption
1. Design standards for roads should mandate the minimum quality of the cycling network in all urban and suburban areas. This design standard should:
a) Specify a minimum cycling grid
b) Mandate physical separation between cars and cyclists
c) Mandate minimum cycling parking in commercial buildings and condominiums
d) Mandate minimum cycle parking requirements on public roads

2. Direct Metrolinx to heavily promote urban bike share programs. Measures would include:
a) Specifying a minimum density of bike share stations (they should be readily available in all urban and suburban areas)
b) Additional investments in public electric cycling
c) Moving bike share programs to a PRESTO-based payment system. Transfers from bikes to transit should be made free.
d) Mandating a minimum density of bike share station in zoning codes.


Extreme Heat Mitigation
1. Mandate minimum tree canopy for municipalities. A healthy tree canopy is critical to reducing urban heat
2. Mandate that the roofing on all new buildings must adhere to a maximum level of heat absorption and retention. Our dark roofing is a primary driver of the urban heat island effect. The practical effect of these measures is that we might see lighter colour roofing in the province
3. Mandate that new and repaved roadways must adhere to a maximum level of heat absorption and retention.
4. Mandate that municipalities must have designated cooling centres reasonably accessible to residents (including those on transit and with disabilities). Designated cooling centres could be existing publicly owned buildings, or privately-owned public spaces (for example, shopping malls)

Flooding Mitigation
1. Mandate a minimum tree canopy for municipalities. A healthy tree canopy will reduce flooding risk
2. Generally update road building standards to allow for more water permeability
3. Mandate the minimum permeability of large concrete surfaces. This could result in trees and grass being planted in parking lots.

Vision Zero
1. Vision Zero requirements should be built into the design standards for all public roads.

Housing
1. Cities should be required hit a minimum density requirement
2. Restrictions on "missing middle" type housing would be relaxed in areas near public transit stations
3. Zoning laws would require a minimum level of "walkability" and public transit accessibility depending on context. This would apply to all new developments, and cities would be required to gradually bring existing areas into conformance.

All of these are reasonable and legislatively straightforward regulatory updates. The municipalities might protest for a while, but their screeching will go away once they realize that the implementation of these measures won't caused the sky to fall.

 

[lenaitch]

This country has a close to 10% of the world's fresh water, we need to pipe it, not oil to where it's needed. We have the pipes, let's switch them over from petroleum to Dihydrogen Monoxide (DHMO). It's a national emergency issue, so we can force the pipeline owners to comply.

And the idea of damming James Bay and diverting the fresh water to agriculture, towns and First Nations in MB and AB (and also in ON and QC where needed) has merit. Unlike this scheme that looked at taking the water for the USA https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Great_Recycling_and_Northern_Development_Canal

Droughts and regional rainfall imbalances are here to stay in Canada. If we have a downpour in Ontario, let's get some of that to Manitoba farmers, for example. The Romans did this thousands of years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipeline_transport#Water

Ah yes - the GRAND Canal proposal. I'm not exactly sure how, by pumping water into the Great Lakes which are a shared resource by treaty, we could prevent the US from siphoning it off.

Some observers speculated that damming off James Bay to create a fresh water reservoir would have impacts as far away as the Grand Banks.

I would think we have learned by now that massively and blindly screwing around with nature cannot be solved by massively screwing around with nature.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I would think we have learned by now that massively and blindly screwing around with nature cannot be solved by massively screwing around with nature.

I think we can - just don't be surprised by unanticipated negative outcomes. Not ideal if we have other choices but at some point we may have to implement some of these geoengineering types of solutions.

AoD