Canada's next Prime Minister?

[lordmandeep]

it all depends.


People say Trudeau is the most Hated PM.

Lets see if Mulroney death becomes the top story of the year, like Trudeau was in 2000.

Lets see if if thousands line the route where his body passes, lets see if the country halts for his death.





I expect a few days and no one will remember a thing...


That imo shows the true legacy of people, my friends.

 

[Whoaccio]

The Liberals are completely dead in the West. Gerrard Kennedy is a Western guy, and they could plop him in an Alberta riding. He has a national appeal that Rae and Ignatieff lack (although Rae is still hated within Ontario).
Rae is the best politician (Ignatieff is gaff-prone), but GK may have the best shot.
Personally, I'd like to see Frank McKenna in the mix.

Ignatieff and Rae are both very smart. I attended a couple lectures by Rae, and he can effortlessly deliver truckloads of charisma and logic. His leadership speech during the convention was by far the best, on purely technical grounds. The main problem of course is that, responsible or not, Rae presided over one of Ontario's worst economic periods. I'm not going to suggest he was solely responsible, but at the same time he wont be able to get away from that.

Ignatieff is probably the best hope the Liberals have of recapturing the Paul Martin Liberal types. Gaffes are an issue, but not as big as some people think. Deep down, most people realize that 99% of gaffes are taken out of context or the result of confused intentions. The Liberals tried to play up CPC gaffes this time around, but it didn't work. Faux indignation wont win or loose the election for anybody.

More importantly, the Liberal party needs to find a role model. The CPC did this quite well with modeling themselves after John Howard and his government in 2004, and Chretien was clearly riding the wave of the "third way" socialism taking hold in the USA & UK under Bill Clinton & Tony Blair. I would throw out Kevin Rudd or the current Labour Government of New Zealand.

 

[kEiThZ]

You'll believe that until we experience a natural catastrophe parallel to say, Katrina.

Even serious climatologists don't argue for links between hurricanes and climate change....

That's BS about Mulroney being the greenest, he's senile and tooting his own horn for no discernible reason. That's like saying how great Ronald regan was and how great they will say GWB was 20 years from now.

You may not like the truth, but Mulroney was one of the greenest PMs in history. Must be something about that whole acid rain thing....He may not have been great on other fronts but on the environmental front he is unassailable:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/04/20/mulroney060420.html

Why don't you compare his record on the environment to the two Liberal PMs that followed him? Heck, GWB has a better record on climate change than Canada and that's due in large part to Liberal inaction.

It still creates a middle market that's completely unecessary. In any case it's not going to be one solution to all our environmental problems but a dynamic mix of several alternatives.

I didn't say it was the optimal solution. I said it was the most politically palatable solution. The Liberals sank this time exactly because of the Green Shift. It's hard to sell a new tax during the best of times. It's that much harder during times of economic uncertainty. Why do you think the other countries use cap and trade? Because it's the most politically expedient way to price carbon. And that's exactly why the NDP and the Conservatives support it.

 

[Whoaccio]

You'll believe that until we experience a natural catastrophe parallel to say, Katrina. That's BS about Mulroney being the greenest, he's senile and tooting his own horn for no discernible reason. That's like saying how great Ronald regan was and how great they will say GWB was 20 years from now.

Actually its quite true about Mulroney. Although given that "greenest" is a superlative, its not like he had much competition for the title. Under Mulroney, Canada organized the Montreal Protocol which has been surprisingly effective at resolving the O-Zone issue. Chretien did sign up for Kyoto, but we've all seen how well that turned out.

 

[lordmandeep]

Well Mulroney is in a poor state.

His legacy is nothing to many people...


He did good things with NAFTA and some green incentives and tried to fix the constitutional mess, however he is with Mike Harris and Bob Rae, the most disliked person in Ontario.


Lets not forget his legacy out West and in Quebec.

 

[cacruden]

Ignatieff is probably the best hope the Liberals have of recapturing the Paul Martin Liberal types. Gaffes are an issue, but not as big as some people think. Deep down, most people realize that 99% of gaffes are taken out of context or the result of confused intentions. The Liberals tried to play up CPC gaffes this time around, but it didn't work. Faux indignation wont win or loose the election for anybody.

Occasional Gaffes are only important to partisans - or if they are in an area that is "sensitive" (i.e. if it is an area of weakness - and people are already suspicious of ulterior motives). Otherwise the occasional gaff is just that - a gaff.

 

[lordmandeep]

Igantieff would do well, however the Martin types hate him with a passion.

 

[kEiThZ]

Ignatieff and Rae are both very smart. I attended a couple lectures by Rae, and he can effortlessly deliver truckloads of charisma and logic. His leadership speech during the convention was by far the best, on purely technical grounds. The main problem of course is that, responsible or not, Rae presided over one of Ontario's worst economic periods. I'm not going to suggest he was solely responsible, but at the same time he wont be able to get away from that.

As much as I like the guy, he is not electable. All an opponent has to do is play still images of headlines and remind people about 'Rae days' from that era and it's over for him.....

Ignatieff is probably the best hope the Liberals have of recapturing the Paul Martin Liberal types. Gaffes are an issue, but not as big as some people think. Deep down, most people realize that 99% of gaffes are taken out of context or the result of confused intentions. The Liberals tried to play up CPC gaffes this time around, but it didn't work. Faux indignation wont win or loose the election for anybody.

I like Iggy.....but he's too John Kerry me thinks for Canada. And decades outside Canada have not helped....that'll be tough to overcome in an election. Can you see the commercials making fun of the Harvard prof who's come home to lecture Canadians?

More importantly, the Liberal party needs to find a role model. The CPC did this quite well with modeling themselves after John Howard and his government in 2004, and Chretien was clearly riding the wave of the "third way" socialism taking hold in the USA & UK under Bill Clinton & Tony Blair. I would throw out Kevin Rudd or the current Labour Government of New Zealand.

Exactly. They need to step outside their comfort zone to find new leadership. And they need to re-connect with rural areas of this country. If you take away the urban core vote of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, the Liberals would be left with less than two dozen seats. Whether they like it or not, they need to connect with the suburbs, and rural areas and the West. Without it, they'll be keeping the Opposition benches warm for a long time.

 

[Roy G Biv]

I disagree, I believe Rae tends to be more pragmatic (if the party lets him be that way), whereas Kennedy is more left leaning. Rae was hamstrung by the times, and the party to which he lead - which reduced the room for him to be pragmatic.

Kennedy was the king maker for Dion - so his decision making has to be questioned (either he chose the wrong person to crown; or he chose Dion for reasons that were not in the Parties best interest).

The Liberals ran to the left, and got creamed. They now have to move back to the center with a new leader.

How is Rae "to the left"?

Your point is a good one. The lack of breakthroughs for the Greens and NDPs illustrates it. Centrists running to the CPC is a much bigger problem than lefties running to the NDP/Greens.

 

[lordmandeep]

I like Iggy.....but he's too John Kerry me thinks for Canada. And decades outside Canada have not helped....that'll be tough to overcome in an election. Can you see the commercials making fun of the Harvard prof who's come home to lecture Canadians?

all he has to do is doing a spin behind the queen, jump over a fence and give a middle finger, and there you go...



Sure Iggy is an intellectual, however unlike Dion he is quite tough and hard and most importantly you can understand what he is saying.

I think Canadians are not hostile to a smart man PM.


Iggy has to shift to the Centre and trust me, he could do rather well.

 

[Whoaccio]

I like Iggy.....but he's too John Kerry me thinks for Canada. And decades outside Canada have not helped....that'll be tough to overcome in an election. Can you see the commercials making fun of the Harvard prof who's come home to lecture Canadians?

Actually no. Were Iggy running for the CPC, I could see that. I don't see the CPC treating living in the USA as a negative thing though, it is completely at odds with their generally continental attitude. The Liberals have always had a more Atlanticist outlook, and it wouldn't be a leap for them to criticize someone as "too American." The one major issue with Iggy is that he supported to Iraq War (and this clearly ran against him @ the convention). Its not like Stephen 'I crib John Howard's polemics' Harper could possibly fault him on that. The NDP might try something like that, but who listens to the NDP?

Another interesting issue will be what happens to Stephen Harper? He really has had a long time to get the majority "in the bag", and has failed to move the party past minority despite the weakest opposition since John Turner. In large part, it is precisely because of his mannerisms too. Were Harper to disappear, would Jim Flaherty take over or would Lawrence Cannon? What has happened to the Reform/CPC devide?

 

[cacruden]

How is Rae "to the left"?

I said Kennedy is more left than Rae (IMHO). The Liberals tend to approach the centre from the Left (when governing), while the Conservatives approach the centre (when governing). Both parties have a right wing and a left wing (which overlap near the centre). The "base" of the parties tend to pull the parties to away from the centre - but when that happens - the party looses. The party leader has to be smart enough to realize it....

 

[lordmandeep]

To tell you the truth, no one ever wins a majority against a strong opponent apart from 1988 and it will get harder because there are so many parties.

Every other time it is because the other party was in the hinterlands or they were fighting with 4 different parties.

All 4 major parties are going nowhere.

Tory and Bloc and NDP are doing better then before and the Liberals are down but change 3-4% goes there way they are back to over 100 seats.



Imo there is no Way the Liberals will ever get back to Majority status unless Harper goes down the way of Brian Mulroney.

For Harper he got close but imo he had the perfect recipe for a Majority. I am certain if the Liberals were in the same situation they would won a handy majority.

 

[urbanfan89]

Without electoral reform or some move away from First Past The Post, all our votes are meaningless.

 

[Brandon716]

I supported Kennedy in the last leadership race and would like to see him run again, and win.